Statistical bulletin: UK Trade, December 2014

Key Points

• UK Trade shows the extent of import and export activity and is a key contributor to the overall economic growth of the UK.
• Seasonally adjusted, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £2.9 billion in December 2014, compared with £1.8 billion in November 2014. This reflects a deficit of £10.2 billion on goods, partly offset by an estimated surplus of £7.3 billion on services. The widening of the overall deficit mainly reflects an increase in the import of goods from countries outside of the European Union (EU).
• Between Q3 and Q4 2014, the trade in goods deficit narrowed by £2.2 billion to £29.4 billion. Exports increased by £2.0 billion to £73.8 billion, attributed to increases in exports of manufactured goods. Imports decreased by £0.2 billion to £103.2 billion. Trade with countries outside of the EU was the main contributor to the deficit narrowing.
• Annually, the total trade deficit widened to £34.8 billion in 2014. This was the largest deficit since 2010 when the deficit stood at £37.1 billion. Both exports and imports fell in 2014 when compared with 2013, however, exports fell more significantly. The widening of the deficit is mainly attributed to trade in goods as exports of goods decreased by £14.6 billion from the previous year and imports of goods decreased by £7.3 billion; this was the first annual fall in imports since 2009.

Key Figures

Table 1: Balance of UK Trade in Goods and Services, December 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Figure 1: Balance of UK Trade

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Figure 2: Balance of UK Trade in Goods

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Summary

The deficit of trade in goods and services for December 2014 widened to £2.9 billion, from £1.8 billion in the previous month. The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Between November and December, exports decreased by less than £0.1 billion to £42.1 billion and imports increased by £1.0 billion to £45.0 billion.

This release is the first opportunity to analyse the performance of UK trade in 2014. The total trade deficit widened to £34.8 billion in 2014. This was the largest deficit since 2010 when the deficit stood at £37.1 billion. Both exports and imports fell in 2014, however, exports fell more significantly. The widening of the deficit is mainly attributed to trade in goods as exports of goods decreased by £14.6 billion from the previous year and imports of goods decreased by £7.3 billion; this was the first annual fall in imports since 2009. In terms of commodities, trade in fuels saw the biggest year on year decrease; exports of fuels fell by £6.4 billion and imports of fuels fell by £9.8 billion.

The deficit on trade in goods was £10.2 billion in December 2014, narrowing by £0.9 billion from November. Exports rose by less than £0.1 billion between November and December, whilst imports rose by £0.9 billion over the same period.

In detail, exports of goods rose by less than £0.1 billion to £24.6 billion in December; a £0.2 billion increase in fuel exports was almost entirely offset by a £0.2 billion decrease in exports of manufactured goods. In value terms, exports of oil increased £0.2 billion in December 2014, whilst the volume of oil exports grew 22.7% over the same period; reaching its highest level since July 2012.

Imports of goods rose by £0.9 billion in December 2014, mainly reflecting a £0.7 billion rise in imports of fuels; specifically oil imports (up £0.6 billion). The volume of oil imports reached its highest level since July 2008, growing 37.5% between November and December. Aside from fuels, imports of finished manufactures rose by £0.4 billion in December, £0.3 billion of which was attributed to imports of aircraft.

In December 2014, exports to countries within the EU increased by £0.1 billion. Increases in fuels (up £0.2 billion) and chemicals (up £0.1 billion) were partially offset by a £0.2 billion fall in exports of miscellaneous manufactures. Imports from EU countries fell by £0.1 billion between November and December.

Outside the EU, exports fell by £0.1 billion in December 2014. A £0.3 billion decrease in material manufactures was partially offset by a £0.2 billion increase in chemicals. Imports from countries outside the EU rose by £1.0 billion, reflecting a £0.7 billion increase in fuels; particularly oil which rose by £0.6 billion. Almost all of the increase in fuel imports for December were attributed to trade with non-EU countries.

Trade statistics for any one month can be erratic. For that reason, it is recommended to compare the latest three months against the preceding three months and the same three months of the preceding year.

In Q4 2014, the trade in goods deficit narrowed by £2.2 billion to £29.4 billion. The narrowing reflects a £2.0 billion rise in exports and a £0.2 billion fall in imports. At the commodity level, trade in manufactured goods accounted for £2.6 billion of the increase in exports. Imports of fuels fell by £1.8 billion over the same period, but was partially offset by a £1.5 billion increase in imports of machinery and transport equipment. By area, the UK’s balance with both EU and non-EU countries narrowed, although the balance of trade outside the EU more substantially (narrowing by £2.1 billion).

This bulletin also reports on trade in services. However, the information on trade in services is mainly obtained from quarterly surveys, in some cases underpinned by larger annual surveys. That means that the data for the latest months are inevitably uncertain. 

The surplus on trade in services for December 2014 was estimated at £7.3 billion, down £0.2 billion from November 2014. Export levels fell by £0.1 billion to £17.5 billion, whilst imports rose by £0.1 billion to £10.2 billion.

Between 2013 and 2014, the surplus on trade in services widened by £6.2 billion, reflecting a fall in exports and, to a greater extent, imports. Exports of services were estimated to have fallen by £1.4 billion to £207.7 billion in 2014. Imports of services were estimated to have fallen by £7.6 billion to £122.6 billion in 2014.

Annually, the fall in exports of services reflected a decrease in exports of insurance and pension services. The fall in imports was largely attributed to a decrease in imports of other business services.

Longer-Term Perspective

The value of trade in goods grew steadily from the beginning of 2007 to mid-2008. The onset of the global economic downturn in mid-2008 affected the economic performance of the UK’s major trading partners and the value of both UK exports and imports fell sharply until Q2 2009. Growth in the value of trade in goods resumed from mid-2009 with improving global economic conditions and remained largely flat from mid-2011 to 2013. However, both exports and imports fell in 2014, reaching their lowest levels since 2010.

Value of UK Trade in Goods

In December 2014, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods was £10.2 billion, widening by £0.9 billion from November 2014.

Total exports fell by less that £0.1 billion to £24.6 billion and total imports increased by £0.9 billion (2.7%) to £34.8 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Change in Key Commodity Value, December 2014 compared with November 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. Monthly commodity movements for aircraft and silver are only detailed where they equal or exceed £200m.

In Q4 2014, the deficit on trade in goods was £29.4 billion, narrowing by £2.2 billion from Q3 2014.

Total exports increased by £2.0 billion (2.7%) to £73.8 billion and total imports decreased by £0.2 billion (0.2%) to £103.2 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Change in Key Commodity Value, Q4 2014 compared with Q3 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. Quarterly commodity movements for silver are only detailed where they equal or exceed £400m.

Figure 3: Value of UK Trade in Goods

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Figure 4: Value of UK Trade in Goods Excluding Oil

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Trade in Goods - Analysis by Area

Monthly Analysis

In December 2014, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries narrowed by £0.1 billion to £6.4 billion. The deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries widened by £1.0 billion to £3.8 billion (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Balance of Trade in Goods - EU and Non-EU Countries

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Between November and December 2014, exports to the EU increased by £0.1 billion (0.7%) to £12.3 billion. Exports to Germany increased by £0.2 billion and to the Netherlands and Sweden by £0.1 billion each. These increases were partially offset by decreases in exports to France and the Irish Republic of £0.1 billion.

Between November and December 2014, imports from the EU decreased by £0.1 billion (0.3%) to £18.7 billion. Imports from Belgium/Luxembourg decreased by £0.2 billion and imports from Denmark, France and Spain each decreased by £0.1 billion.  These decreases were partially offset by individual increases in imports from Germany, Hungary, the Irish Republic and the Netherlands of £0.1 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Change in Key Commodity Value (EU), December 2014 compared with November 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Between November and December 2014, exports to non-EU countries decreased by £0.1 billion (0.4%) to £12.3 billion. Exports to China and India decreased by £0.2 billion. Exports to Brunei, Hong Kong and Turkey decreased by £0.1 billion. These decreases were partially offset with increases in exports to the USA of £0.5 billion, to Saudi Arabia of £0.2 billion and to Japan, Malyasia, Nigeria, Norway and Switzerland of £0.1 billion.

Between November and December 2014, imports from non-EU countries increased by £1.0 billion (6.4%) to £16.1 billion. Imports from the USA increased by £0.4 billion, from Norway by £0.3 billion, from Canada by £0.2 billion and from India, Nigeria, Qatar and Switzerland by £0.1 billion. These increases were partially offset by decreases in imports from China by £0.2 billion and from Algeria, Russia and Turkey by £0.1 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Change in Key Commodity Value (Non-EU), December 2014 compared with November 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. Monthly commodity movements for aircraft and silver are only detailed where they equal or exceed £200m.

Quarterly Analysis

In Q4 2014, the deficit on trade in goods with EU countries narrowed by £0.1 billion to £19.3 billion.

Between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014, exports to the EU increased by £0.3 billion (0.8%) to £36.8 billion. Exports to Belgium/Luxembourg increased by £0.4 billion and to Poland by £0.1 billion. Exports to Italy decreased by £0.2 billion and to France by £0.1 billion.

Between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014, imports from the EU increased by £0.2 billion (0.3%) to £56.2 billion. Imports increased from Germany and Italy by £0.2 billion and from the Czech Republic and the Irish Republic by £0.1 billion. There was a decrease in imports from the Netherlands of £0.4 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Change in Key Commodity Value (EU), Q4 2014 compared with Q3 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

In Q4 2014, the deficit on trade in goods with non-EU countries narrowed by £2.1 billion to £10.1 billion.

Between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014, exports to non-EU countries increased by £1.7 billion (4.7%) to £36.9 billion. Exports to Switzerland increased by £1.2 billion and to India by £0.3 billion. These increases were partially offset with decreases in exports to Norway, Russia, South Korea and the USA of £0.2 billion.

Between Q3 2014 and Q4 2014, imports from non-EU countries decreased by £0.4 billion (0.8%) to £47.1 billion. Imports from Switzerland decreased by £0.6 billion and from Norway and Singapore by £0.3 billion. These decreases were partially offset with increases in imports from China of £0.5 billion, from Canada of £0.4 billion and from India and the USA of £0.3 billion.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Change in Key Commodity Value (Non-EU), Q4 2014 compared with Q3 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Trade in Goods - Geographical Analysis

The UK's top five export trading partners remained unchanged in December 2014 (see Table 8). However, annual exports to Switzerland in 2014 rose to £10.1 billion, making it a new entry into the top ten table, where it replaced China as the UK's sixth largest export trading partner, with exports of £1.4 billion in December 2014. The inclusion of Switzerland in the top ten has meant the United Arab Emirates is no longer included in the table.

In December 2014, Germany remained the UK's top import trading partner with imports of £5.3 billion. An increase in imports frm the USA of £0.4 billion (to a record high of £2.9 billion) and a decrease in imports from China of £0.2 billion meant these countries switched as the UK's second and third largest import trading partners when compared with November 2014 (Table 8).

Outside of the top ten, exports to Saudi Arabia were at a record high of £0.5 billion in December 2014; an increase of £0.2 billion (96.6%) when compared with November 2014. Anecdotal evidence suggests this was due to an increase in exports of aircraft.

In Q4 2014, there were record imports from Germany and the Czech Republic. Imports from Germany increased by £0.2 billion to £15.5 billion, and to the Czech Republic by £0.1 billion to £1.3 billion. There were also record imports from Italy, which increased by £0.2 billion to £4.4 billion; this along with a decrease in exports also caused a record trade deficit with Italy of £2.3 billion.

Table 8: Change in Monthly Trade with Significant Partner Countries, December 2014 compared with November 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. Significant trading partners defined as top 10 export markets and import sources 2014 (see attached table 14).
2. USA includes Puerto Rico.

Figure 6: Significant Partner Countries, One-Month Balances, December 2014

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Table 9: Change in Quarterly Trade with Significant Partner Countries, Q4 2014 compared with Q3 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

1. Significant trading partners defined as top 10 export markets and import sources 2014 (see attached table 14).
2. USA includes Puerto Rico.

Figure 7: Significant Partner Countries, Quarterly Balances, Q4 2014

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Volume of Total Trade in Goods, Excluding Oil and Erratics

Between November 2014 and December 2014, the total volume of exports increased by 0.8% and the total volume of imports increased by 0.5%.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Change in Key Commodity Volume, December 2014 compared with November 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

In Q4 2014, the volume of exports increased by 2.4% and the volume of imports increased by 0.7% when compared with the previous quarter.

At the commodity level, the data are shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Change in Key Commodity Volume, Q4 2014 compared with Q3 2014

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Figure 8: Volume of Exports of Goods (Finished Manufactures), Q4 2014 compared with Q3 2014

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Figure 9: Volume of Imports of Goods (Finished Manufactures), Q4 2014 Compared with Q3 2014

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Export and Import Prices for Trade in Goods (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December 2014, compared with November 2014, export prices decreased by 1.1% and import prices decreased by 1.3%. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices increased by 0.2% and import prices were unchanged.

In Q4 2014, when compared with Q3 2014, export prices decreased by 2.0% and import prices decreased by 1.0%. Excluding the oil price effect, export prices increased by 0.2% and import prices increased by 1.2%.

Figure 10: UK Trade in Goods Export and Import Prices

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Trade in Oil

In December 2014, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £0.9 billion, compared with a deficit of £0.6 billion in November 2014. Oil exports increased by £0.2 billion to £2.5 billion and oil imports increased by £0.6 billion to £3.5 billion.

In Q4 2014, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £2.5 billion, narrowing by £1.1 billion when compared with Q3 2014. Oil exports decreased by £0.5 billion to £7.4 billion and oil imports decreased by £1.6 billion to £9.9 billion.

Figure 11: Balance of Trade in Oil

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Trade in Services

In December 2014, the UK’s estimated surplus on trade in services was £7.3 billion.

Exports in December 2014 were estimated to have been £17.5 billion and imports £10.2 billion.

In Q4 2014, the estimated surplus on trade in services was £22.3 billion.

In Q4 2014, exports were estimated to have been £52.7 billion and imports £30.4 billion.

Figure 12: Value of UK Trade in Services

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Between 2013 and 2014, the surplus on trade in services widened by £6.2 billion, reflecting a fall in exports and, to a greater extent, imports. Exports of services were estimated to have fallen by £1.4 billion to £207.7 billion in 2014. Imports of services were estimated to have fallen by £7.6 billion to £122.6 billion in 2014.

Annually, the fall in exports of services reflected a decrease in exports of insurance and pension services. The fall in imports was largely attributed to a decrease in imports of other business services.

Records Sheet

The UK Trade record information for December 2014 (35.5 Kb Excel sheet) can be accessed on the ONS website.

Background notes

1. What's New?

   The UK Statistics Authority suspended the National Statistics designation of UK Trade on 14 November 2014, as described in this letter. The Authority's re-assessment of UK Trade against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics is now underway. More details are available from the Authority's website .

   Related Publications

   On 6 February 2015, ONS published an article on the Rotterdam effect and its potential impact on the UK trade in goods estimates.

   On 23 January 2015, ONS published a short story exploring the reasons behind the UK Trade deficit. 

   Erratics

   Non-monetary gold is now included in the erratics series; along with ships, aircraft, precious stones and silver. In compliance with the BPM6 changes, non-monetary gold which is held as a store of wealth, is now recorded within trade in goods.

   Non-Monetary Gold

   To comply with international statistical guidelines, ONS introduced estimates for trade in non-monetary gold and other precious metals into the quarterly national accounts from 30 September 2014, and the monthly UK Trade statistics released on 10 October 2014. In developing these estimates further it had been proposed to use data from a Bank of England (BoE) survey, collecting estimates of physical holdings of gold and other precious metals for the reporting period March 2013 onwards, as described in the article 'Measurement of Non-monetary Gold' published on 23 January 2014.

   However, on receiving the aggregated survey results, the data were volatile with large monthly changes that, despite being on a net trade basis, significantly distorted the estimated monthly trade balance. Due to this volatility and given that the survey is relatively new, having only commenced from the reporting period March 2013, it has been decided to undertake further work to quality assure these data and to review the methods used to measure non-monetary gold and other precious metals more generally. In addition, further disclosure assessment is required to ensure the confidentiality of businesses within the survey is maintained. So, the method used for the series pre-2013, derived from BoE information of gold as a store of wealth by UK MFIs, has been extended with the survey information being used to inform the movements of the later periods, but rescaled to the level of the pre-2013 data.

   We will keep users informed of progress and it is likely we will seek views on how best to proceed.

   Revisions

   In this release, periods from January 2014 are open for revision.

   EMU Enlargement

   As of 1 January 2014, Latvia joined the European Monetary Union (EMU). Therefore the EMU totals in this UK Trade release include Latvia.

2. Missing Trader Intra-Community (MTIC) Fraud

   Users should be aware that in some periods, the monthly data does not sum precisely to the quarters (or the quarters to the annual), for the MTIC series due to rounding.

3. Special Events

   An article outlining the ONS policy on special events is available on the ONS website.

4. Code of Practice for Official Statistics

   National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference. © Crown copyright 2015.
   

5. Short Guide to UK Trade

   Ever since statistics on exports and imports of goods were first collected in 1697, UK trade has been one of the country’s key economic indicators.

   All information included in the monthly UK Trade statistical bulletin is on a Balance of Payments (BoP) basis and is seasonally adjusted unless otherwise specified. The release contains tables showing the total value of trade in goods together with index numbers of volume and price, figures analysed by broad commodity group (values and indices) and according to geographical area (values only). In addition the UK Trade statistical bulletin also includes early monthly estimates of the value of trade in services.

   Data appearing in the UK Trade statistical bulletin are also used as a direct input into the quarterly Balance of Payments and National Accounts.

   Interpreting the data

   Monthly commodity movements for food, beverages and tobacco, basic materials, fuels other than oil, and erratics (ships, aircraft, precious stones, silver and non-monetary gold) are only detailed in this statistical bulletin where they are equal to or exceed £200 million (£400 million for three-monthly comparisons).

   In months where quarterly and three-monthly ending percentage changes for index data coincide, there may be small differences between the data for methodological reasons. Quarterly data are the indexed form of an underlying constant price (for volume indices) or consistent quantity (for price indices) series. Three-month ending data are the average of the index data in that period.

   VAT Missing Trader Intra-Community (MTIC) fraud
   

   Import figures for trade in goods include adjustments to allow for the impact of VAT MTIC fraud.

   The adjustments to trade in goods relate only to part of the carousel version of VAT MTIC fraud. This fraud leads to under recording of imports as fraudsters import goods from the EU, which they then sell on before disappearing without paying VAT on that sale. The goods are eventually exported. Such exports are declared and are therefore already reflected in the UK’s trade in goods statistics.

   Changes to the pattern of trading associated with MTIC fraud can make it difficult to analyse trade by commodity group and by country as changes in the impact of activity associated with this fraud affect both imports and exports. However, the MTIC trade adjustments are added to the EU import estimates derived from Intrastat returns as it is this part of the trading chain that is not generally recorded. In particular, adjustments affect trade in capital goods and intermediate goods–these categories include mobile phones and computer components, which are still the most widely affected goods.

   International convention determines that the treatment of the impact is to adjust imports upwards by the relevant amounts of missing declarations (non-response). However, users may wish to interpret short-term movements in imports excluding that part of the fraudulent activity that is not included in the import estimates. For this purpose, an analysis of the import figures with the VAT MTIC adjustments excluded is shown in Table 13.

   Definitions and explanations

   A glossary of terms is published in the UK Balance of Payments - The Pink Book, 2014.

   Use of the data

   UK Trade is a key economic indicator due to the importance of international trade to the UK economy. It is also a very timely statistic, providing an early indicator of what is happening more generally in the economy.

   In addition, it is a major component of two other key economic statistics: UK gross domestic product (GDP) and the UK Balance of Payments. This means that there is a threefold potential for UK Trade statistics to inform the government’s view of the UK economy, as well as the views of others, such as economists, City analysts, academics, the media and international organisations.

   Notes on tables

   Rounding:
   The sum of constituent items in tables does not always agree exactly with the totals shown due to rounding.

   Symbols:
   .. Not applicable
   - Nil or less than half the final digit shown.
   

6. Methods

   Composition of the data

   Detailed methodological notes are published in the UK Balance of Payments - The Pink Book, 2014.

   Seasonal adjustment

   Seasonal adjustment aims to remove effects associated with the time of the year or the arrangement of the calendar so that movements within a time series may be more easily interpreted.

   Deflation

   It is common for the value of a group of financial transactions to be measured in several time periods. The values measured will include both the change in the volume sold and the effect of the change of prices over that year. Deflation is the process whereby the effect of price change is removed from a set of values.

   Chain-linked indices (chained volume measures) which are indexed to form the volume series in this bulletin differ from fixed base indices in that the growth from one year to the next is estimated by weighting the components using the contribution to value of trade in the immediately preceding year (effectively re-basing every year). This series of annually re-weighted annual growths is then ‘chain-linked’ to produce a continuous series.

   The implied price deflators derived by comparing current price data to chained volume measures data are not the same as the price indices published in this statistical bulletin because the former are current weighted while the latter are base (2011) weighted.

   Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution.

   Statistics on Trade in Goods (GSS Methodological Series No. 36) (384.4 Kb Pdf) describing the adjustments that need to be applied to conform to IMF definitions for Balance of Payments and the division of responsibility between ONS and HMRC is available on the ONS website.

   The Overseas Trade Statistics (OTS) data used as inputs to this statistical bulletin are collected and published by Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC) on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis.

7. Quality

   Basic quality information

   Accuracy: Trade in goods figures for the most recent months are provisional and subject to revision in the light of (a) late trader data, revisions to trade prices and revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, and (b) revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month.

   Trade in services estimates have been derived from a number of monthly and quarterly sources. For components where no monthly data are available, estimates have been derived on the basis of recent trends. The results should be used with appropriate caution, as they are therefore likely to be less reliable than those for trade in goods.

   Reliability: Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of key indicators. The table below shows summary information on the size and direction of the revisions which have been made to the data covering a five-year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows that the test is significant.

   On 9 May 2005, ONS published an article explaining the past revisions performance for UK Trade statistics and what is being done to improve the first published estimates, on 9 May 2005.

   Table 12: Revisions Analysis, UK Trade, December 2014

   				£million
   			Revisions between first publication and estimates twelve months later
   		Value in latest period	Average over the last 5 years (mean revision)	Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
   Total trade exports (IKBH)		42,101	691	929
   Total trade imports (IKBI)		44,996	193	495
   Total trade balance (IKBJ)		-2,895	502*	700

   Table source: Office for National Statistics

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   The table covers estimates of UK trade first published from March 2010 (for January 2010) to February 2014 (for November 2013). Revision spreadsheets giving these estimates and the calculations behind the averages in the table are available on the ONS website.

   The May 2007 edition of Economic and Labour Market Review, published by ONS, includes an article analysing past revisions to quarterly balance of payments current account data (2.33 Mb Pdf) .

   More information about revisions material in this statistical bulletin can be found on the ONS website.

8. The coverage of EMU countries was extended to cover Cyprus and Malta from July 2008, Slovakia from January 2009, Estonia from January 2011 and Latvia from January 2014. Some EU and non-EU breakdowns of commodity data for chained volume measures which are available on request may be less reliable than the current price data. Please consult Katherine Kent on 01633 455829 if you are considering using them.

   Data have been combined for the United States and Puerto Rico and for Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Sharjah (the United Arab Emirates) from January 2009 onwards. Estimates are separately available for the United States and Dubai up to the end of 2008 on request.

9. Summary quality report

   A Summary Quality Report (283.9 Kb Pdf) for this statistical bulletin and associated data can be found on the ONS website.
   

10. National Accounts revisions policy

    National Accounts revision policy (41.6 Kb Pdf) can be found on the ONS website.
    

11. Revisions

    Revisions Table 17R shows revisions to the main aggregates since the last Trade Statistical Bulletin of 9 January 2015. The revisions to trade in goods from January 2014 reflect revised data from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs and other data suppliers, revised estimates of trading associated with VAT MTIC fraud, later survey data on trade prices and a re-assessment of seasonal factors.

    There are no revisions to Trade in Services data.

12. Publication policy

    A list of the organisations given pre-publication access to the contents of this bulletin can be found on the ONS website.

13. Accessing data

    Supplementary quarterly data analysed by industry according to the Classification of Product by Activity (08) (UK Trade in Goods by Classification of Product by Activity) are also available.

    The complete run of data in the tables of this statistical bulletin are also available to view and download in other electronic formats free of charge using the ONS Time Series Data website service. Users can download the complete statistical bulletin in a choice of zipped formats, or view and download their own selections of individual series.
    

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17. Next publication: 12 March 2015

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