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Consumer Price Inflation Detailed Briefing Note, February 2015 This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 24 March 2015 Download PDF

Summary

Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and in line with European regulations. First published in 1997 as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the CPI is the inflation measure used in the Government’s target for inflation.

The CPI is also used for purposes such as uprating pensions, wages and benefits and can aid in the understanding of inflation on family budgets. For more information see Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics (100.5 Kb Pdf) .

  • The all items CPI is 127.4, up from 127.1 in January.

  • The all items CPI annual rate is 0.0%, down from 0.3% in January.

  • The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is -0.2%, down from 0.0% last month.

  • The annual rate for CPI at constant tax rates, CPI-CT, is -0.1%, down from 0.2% last month.

  • The CPI all goods index is 119.5, up from 119.2 in January.

  • The CPI all goods index annual rate is -2.0%, down from -1.5% last month.

  • The CPI all services index is 137.4, up from 137.0 in January.

  • The CPI all services index annual rate is 2.4%, unchanged from last month.

CPIH

The National Statistics status of CPIH has been discontinued pending work by ONS to investigate and improve the method for measuring owner occupiers’ housing costs in this index. Full details can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website and in an explanatory note (313.9 Kb Pdf) on the ONS website. The improvements from the resulting development work are being introduced as part of this dataset with the historical series revised back to 2005. Further information on the changes is available in two articles: Improvements to the measurement of Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs and Private Housing Rental Prices (2.48 Mb Pdf) and Revising the weight of Owner Occupiers’ Housing in CPIH (197.4 Kb Pdf) .

CPIH is a measure of UK consumer price inflation that includes owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH). These are the costs of housing services associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home. OOH does not include costs such as utility bills, minor repairs and maintenance which are already included in the index. CPIH uses an approach called rental equivalence to measure OOH. Rental equivalence uses the rent paid for an equivalent house as a proxy for the costs faced by an owner occupier. In other words this answers the question “how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?” for an owner occupier. OOH does not seek to capture increases in house prices. Although this may be inconsistent with some users’ expectations of measures of OOH, the inclusion of an asset price and therefore capital gains would make the index less suitable for a measure of consumption. OOH currently accounts for 17.8% of the expenditure weight of CPIH. This compares with a weight of 19.5% in 2005 following revisions to the historic OOH weights in CPIH in line with National Accounts estimates and implemented with this release.

Currently, the method of calculation, the population coverage and the basket of goods and services are the same as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), with the exception of OOH. The method of deriving the weights for CPIH and the data used for these are also the same as for CPI, with the exception of OOH. This can result in some differences from the CPI.

  • The all items CPIH is 125.3, up from 125.0 in January.

  • The all items CPIH annual rate is 0.3%, down from 0.5% in January.

  • The annual rate for CPIH excluding indirect taxes, CPIHY, is 0.1%, down from 0.3% last month.

  • The OOH component of CPIH is 116.0, up from 115.9 in January.

  • The OOH component annual rate is 1.9%, unchanged from last month.

  • The CPIH all goods index is 119.6, up from 119.4 in January.

  • The CPIH all goods index annual rate is -2.0%, down from -1.5% last month.

  • The CPIH all services index is 129.8, up from 129.5 in January.

  • The CPIH all services index annual rate is 2.3%, up from 2.2% last month.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) and RPIJ

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. The full assessment report can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website.

The RPI is a long-standing measure of UK inflation that has historically been used for a wide range of purposes such as the indexation of pensions, rents and index-linked gilts. For further information see Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics (100.5 Kb Pdf) .

RPIJ is an improved variant of the Retail Prices Index which is calculated using formulae that meet international standards. The rationale for creating RPIJ was to give users a better alternative to the RPI if their needs were for a measure of inflation based on the same population, classifications, weights etc as the RPI. Currently, RPIJ also acts as an analytical series, in that it allows users to see the impact of using the Jevons (which meets international standards) in place of the Carli formula (which does not meet international standards) in the RPI. The use of the different formulae at the elementary aggregate level is currently the only difference between the two indices. ONS does not produce detailed goods and services indices for RPIJ.

  • The all items RPI is 256.7, up from 255.4 in January.

  • The all items RPI annual rate is 1.0%, down from 1.1% last month.

  • The all items RPIJ is 237.2, up from 236.5 in January.

  • The all items RPIJ annual rate is 0.4%, down from 0.5% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIX, the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (MIPs) index, is 1.0%, down from 1.2% last month.

  • The all goods RPI is 198.0, up from 196.4 in January.

  • The all goods RPI annual rate is -1.0%, down from -0.6% last month.

  • The all services RPI is 347.1, up from 346.0 in January.

  • The all services RPI annual rate is 2.1%, up from 2.0% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIY, the all items RPI excluding MIPs and indirect taxes index, is 0.8%, down from 1.1% last month.

  • The Tax and Price Index (TPI) is 225.2, up from 223.9 in January.

  • The TPI annual rate is 0.4%, down from 0.5% last month.

CPI Summary

Contributions to change in the CPI annual rate

CPI COICOP DIVISIONS Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01: Food and non-alcoholic beverages 112 110 0.5 -0.2 -0.08
02: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 45 43 -0.9 -0.4 0.02
03: Clothing and footwear 72 70 1.1 1.3 0.01
04: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 129 128 0.1 - -0.01
05: Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 60 59 2.4 1.4 -0.07
06: Health 24 25 0.5 0.1 -0.01
07: Transport 152 149 0.3 0.4 0.01
08: Communication 32 31 0.2 0.9 0.02
09: Recreation and culture 144 147 0.8 - -0.13
10: Education 22 26 - - -
11: Restaurants and hotels 120 121 0.4 0.2 -0.02
12: Miscellaneous goods and services 88 91 0.3 0.2 -

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Large downward effects came from:

  • Recreation and culture, where prices overall were little changed between January and February this year compared with a rise of 0.8% between the same two months a year ago. The downward contribution came from price movements for a range of recreational goods and services, most notably data processing equipment, books and games, toys & hobbies;

  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages, where prices overall fell by 0.2% between January and February 2015, compared with a rise of 0.5% between the same two months a year earlier. The fall in prices this year is the first between January and February since 1998. The downward effects came from a variety of product groups, particularly milk, cheese & eggs, mineral waters, soft drinks & juices, bread & cereals and sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate & confectionery; and

  • Furniture, household equipment and maintenance, where prices overall rose by 1.4% between January and February, compared with a larger rise of 2.4% between the same two months a year ago. The downward contribution came principally from furniture and furnishings where prices rose by less than a year ago following the January sales period.

A small downward effect came from:

  • Restaurants and hotels, where prices overall rose by 0.2% between January and February 2015, compared with a rise of 0.4% between the same two months a year earlier.

Small upward effects came from:

  • Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, where prices overall fell by 0.4% between January and February 2015, compared with a larger fall of 0.9% between the same two months a year earlier; and

  • Communication, where prices overall rose by 0.9% between January and February 2014 compared with a smaller rise of 0.2% between the same two months a year earlier. The main upward contributions came from bundled telecommunication services and mobile telephone handsets.

CPI Notable Movements

CPI notable movements, February 2015

All items CPI Annual rate 0.0%, down from +0.3% last month
Never lower since official series began in January 1997
All items CPI exc energy, food, Annual rate +1.2%, down from +1.4% last month
alcohol and tobacco Also +1.2% in November 2014
Last lower in December 2008 (+1.1%)
Food and non-alcoholic beverages Annual rate -3.3%, down from -2.5% last month
Never lower since official series began in January 1997
Housing, water, electricity, gas and Annual rate +0.9%, down from +1.0% last month
other fuels Lowest since November 2010 (+0.7%)
Furniture, household equipment and Annual rate -0.3%, down from +0.8% last month
maintenance Lowest since November 2006 (-0.5%)
Health Annual rate +1.8%, down from +2.2% last month
Lowest since November 2004 (+1.5%)
Recreation and culture Annual rate -0.8%, down from +0.1% last month
Lowest since February 2012 (-0.9%)
Restaurants and hotels Annual rate +2.2%, down from +2.4% last month
Also +2.2% in January 2014 and January 2010
Last lower in December 2009 (+1.8%)
All goods Annual rate -2.0%, down from -1.5% last month
Lowest since June 2002 (-2.3%)
All services Annual rate +2.4%, unchanged from last month
Also +2.4% in November 2014
Last higher in October 2014 (+2.5%)
Last lower in December 2014 (+2.3%)
Fuels and lubricants Annual rate -16.6%, down from -16.2% last month
Never lower since official series began in January 1997
Electricity, gas and other fuels Annual rate -2.4%, down from -2.0% last month
Also -2.4% in August 2010
Last lower in June 2010 (-2.5%)

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CPI Detailed Briefing

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the CPI.

01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages 112 110 0.5 -0.2 -0.08

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to food and, to a lesser extent, non-alcoholic beverages.

01.1 Food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.1 Food 99 97 0.4 -0.3 -0.07
01.1.1 Bread and cereals 17 16 1.5 0.7 -0.02
01.1.2 Meat 22 22 0.7 0.1 -0.01
01.1.3 Fish 4 4 2.2 -0.3 -0.01
01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs 14 14 0.4 -1.9 -0.03
01.1.5 Oils and fats 2 2 -0.3 0.3 -
01.1.6 Fruit 10 10 -1.7 -0.9 0.01
01.1.7 Vegetables including potatoes 15 14 -0.2 - -
01.1.8 Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery 12 12 -0.2 -1.4 -0.02
01.1.9 Food products not elsewhere covered 3 3 0.6 2.5 0.01

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to milk, cheese and eggs; bread and cereals; sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery; meat; and fish.

  • Partially offset by fruit and food products not elsewhere covered.

Bread and cereals

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from breakfast cereals and pizzas.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution coming from garlic bread, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Meat

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from pork products.

Fish

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for fresh white fish fillets.

Milk, cheese and eggs

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from cheddar cheese, yoghurt/fromage frais and milk.

Fruit

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for strawberries.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution coming from grapes, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from cartons/boxes of chocolates and chocolate covered ice cream bars.

Food products not elsewhere covered

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages 13 13 1.8 0.3 -0.02
01.2.1 Coffee, tea and cocoa 3 3 -1.0 1.3 0.01
01.2.2 Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 10 10 2.6 - -0.03

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to mineral waters, soft drinks and juices, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago. The main downward contributions came from bottles of cola and other fizzy drinks, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, and fruit juices and squashes, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

  • Partially offset by coffee, tea and cocoa, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 45 43 -0.9 -0.4 0.02

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  • Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to alcoholic beverages and tobacco.

02.1 Alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.1 Alcoholic beverages 20 19 -2.1 -1.4 0.02
02.1.1 Spirits 6 5 -4.0 0.9 0.03
02.1.2 Wine 9 9 -1.1 -3.7 -0.02
02.1.3 Beer 5 5 -1.8 0.3 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to spirits and beer, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for whisky, vodka and packs of bottled premium lager.

  • Partially offset by wine, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from both red and white wine. Partially offset by a small upward contribution coming from rosé wine, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

02.2 Tobacco

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.2 Tobacco 25 24 - 0.3 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

03 Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03 Clothing and footwear 72 70 1.1 1.3 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to footwear including repairs.

03.1 Clothing

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.1 Clothing 62 60 1.3 1.4 -
03.1.2 Garments 55 54 1.4 1.6 0.01
03.1.3 Other clothing and clothing accessories 6 5 0.9 -0.7 -0.01
03.1.4 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 1 1 0.2 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • A small upward contribution coming from garments has been offset by a small downward contribution coming from other clothing and clothing accessories.

Garments

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from a variety of women’s and men’s outerwear items.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution coming from children’s outerwear, in particular girls’ fashion tops, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Other clothing and clothing accessories

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from men’s ties.

03.2 Footwear including repairs

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.2 Footwear including repairs 10 10 -0.1 1.0 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 129 128 0.1 - -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to electricity, gas and other fuels.

04.1 Actual rentals for housing

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.1 Actual rentals for housing 70 72 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling 2 2 -0.4 0.1 -
04.3.1 Materials for maintenance and repair 1 1 -0.7 0.2 -
04.3.2 Services for maintenance and repair 1 1 -0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.4 Other services related to the dwelling

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.4 Other services related to the dwelling 12 12 - - -
04.4.1 Water supply 6 6 - - -
04.4.3 Sewerage collection 6 6 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 45 42 0.2 -0.2 -0.02
04.5.1 Electricity 21 20 0.2 - -
04.5.2 Gas 21 20 0.2 -0.7 -0.02
04.5.3 Liquid fuels 2 1 0.1 5.0 0.01
04.5.4 Solid fuels 1 1 -0.1 - -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to gas, where average charges fell this year but rose a year ago.

  • Partially offset by an upward contribution coming from liquid fuels, where kerosene prices rose this year by more than a year ago.

05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 60 59 2.4 1.4 -0.07

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture, furnishings and carpets and, to a lesser extent, glassware, tableware and household utensils and household textiles.

05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets 21 21 4.8 2.6 -0.05
05.1.1 Furniture and furnishings 16 15 6.1 3.7 -0.04
05.1.2 Carpets and other floor coverings 5 6 0.6 -0.4 -0.01

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture and furnishings and, to a lesser extent, carpets and other floor coverings.

Furniture and furnishings

  • Large downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for leather settees.

Carpets and other floor coverings

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

05.2 Household textiles

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.2 Household textiles 7 6 3.3 2.8 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 9 8 -0.2 -0.4 -
05.3.1/2 Major appliances and small electric goods 8 7 -0.3 -0.5 -
05.3.3 Repair of household appliances 1 1 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils 6 6 3.3 1.1 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from crockery sets and plastic food storage containers.

05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden 4 5 0.1 0.7 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance 13 13 0.4 0.3 -
05.6.1 Non-durable household goods 5 5 1.0 0.7 -
05.6.2 Domestic services and household services 8 8 - 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06 Health

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06 Health 24 25 0.5 0.1 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to medical products, appliances and equipment.

06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment 10 12 1.0 0.1 -0.01
06.1.1 Pharmaceutical products 6 7 1.6 0.4 -0.01
06.1.2/3 Other medical and therapeutic equipment 4 5 0.1 -0.3 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to pharmaceutical products, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from indigestion tablets.

06.2 Out-patient services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.2 Out-patient services 6 5 0.1 0.1 -
06.2.1/3 Medical and paramedical services 3 3 0.1 0.1 -
06.2.2 Dental services 3 2 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06.3 Hospital services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.3 Hospital Services 8 8 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

07 Transport

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07 Transport 152 149 0.3 0.4 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to transport services.

  • Partially offset by operation of personal transport equipment and purchase of vehicles.

07.1 Purchase of vehicles

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.1 Purchase of vehicles 44 40 0.4 0.2 -0.01
07.1.1A New cars 23 24 - 0.1 -
07.1.1B Second-hand cars 18 14 0.4 -0.1 -0.01
07.1.2/3 Motorcycles and bicycles 3 2 3.0 2.6 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to second-hand cars, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment 76 77 -0.3 -0.5 -0.01
07.2.1 Spare parts and accessories 5 6 0.1 0.2 -
07.2.2 Fuels and lubricants 35 34 -0.6 -1.1 -0.01
07.2.3 Maintenance and repairs 23 23 -0.1 0.2 0.01
07.2.4 Other services 13 14 - -0.3 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to fuels and lubricants.

  • Partially offset by maintenance and repairs.

Fuels and lubricants

  • Small downward effect.

  • The average price of petrol across the month, as recorded for the CPI, fell by 1.3 pence per litre between January and February 2015 to stand at 107.0 pence per litre.

  • Last year, the average price of petrol fell by 0.8 pence per litre between January and February 2014 to stand at 129.0 pence per litre.

  • The average price of diesel fell by 1.1 pence per litre between January and February 2015 to stand at 114.5 pence per litre, compared with a fall of 0.8 pence per litre a year earlier to stand at 136.9 pence per litre.

Maintenance and repairs

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from car repairs.

07.3 Transport services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.3 Transport services 32 32 1.6 2.6 0.03
07.3.1 Passenger transport by railway 11 12 1.9 1.7 -
07.3.2 Passenger transport by road 11 12 0.6 1.9 0.02
07.3.3 Passenger transport by air 6 6 3.3 5.3 0.01
07.3.4 Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway 4 2 1.1 3.0 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to passenger transport by road and passenger transport by air.

Passenger transport by road

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, particularly for coach fares.

Passenger transport by air

  • Small upward effect.

  • Average air fares rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from European flights.

08 Communication

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08 Communication 32 31 0.2 0.9 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to telephone equipment and services.

08.1 Postal services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.1 Postal services 2 2 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services 30 29 0.2 0.9 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from bundled telecommunication charges and mobile phone handsets.

09 Recreation and culture

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09 Recreation and culture 144 147 0.8 - -0.13

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to other recreational items, gardens and pets; books, newspapers and stationery; audio-visual equipment and related products; and, to a lesser extent, recreational and cultural services; and other major durables for recreation and culture.

09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products 22 23 2.0 0.4 -0.04
09.1.1 Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures 5 5 1.2 - -0.01
09.1.2 Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment 3 3 -1.1 2.3 0.01
09.1.3 Data processing equipment 8 9 2.2 -2.4 -0.04
09.1.4 Recording media 5 5 4.8 4.8 -
09.1.5 Repair of audio-visual equipment and related products 1 1 - - -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to data processing equipment; and, to a lesser extent, equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures.

  • Partially offset by photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment.

Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from hi-fi systems.

Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from digital cameras.

Data processing equipment

  • Large downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from PC peripherals, tablet computers and laptop computers.

09.2 Other major durables for recreation and culture

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.2.1/2 Major durables for in/outdoor recreation 9 10 0.9 - -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago.

09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets 36 36 0.5 -0.6 -0.04
09.3.1 Games, toys and hobbies 21 21 0.3 -1.2 -0.03
09.3.2 Equipment for sport and open-air recreation 3 4 -0.1 -1.0 -
09.3.3 Gardens, plants and flowers 4 4 2.1 0.7 -0.01
09.3.4/5 Pets, related products and services 8 7 0.5 0.7 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to games, toys and hobbies and gardens, plants and flowers.

Games, toys and hobbies

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from computer games, preschool activity toys and model road vehicles.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution coming from plastic dolls.

Gardens, plants and flowers

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

09.4 Recreational and cultural services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.4 Recreational and cultural services 31 31 - -0.3 -0.01
09.4.1 Recreational and sporting services 9 8 0.1 - -
09.4.2 Cultural services 22 23 -0.1 -0.4 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to cultural services, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for admission to live music events. Partially offset by a small upward contribution coming from theatre admissions, where prices rose this year by more than a year ago.

09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery 14 14 3.5 0.8 -0.04
09.5.1 Books 4 4 9.1 0.5 -0.04
09.5.2 Newspapers and periodicals 5 5 1.0 0.6 -
09.5.3/4 Misc. printed matter, stationery, drawing materials 5 5 1.6 1.3 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to books, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from eBooks and hardback fiction books.

09.6 Package holidays

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.6 Package holidays 32 33 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

10 Education

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
10 Education 22 26 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

11 Restaurants and hotels

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11 Restaurants and hotels 120 121 0.4 0.2 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to accommodation services and catering services.

11.1 Catering services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.1 Catering services 100 100 0.3 0.2 -0.01
11.1.1 Restaurants and cafes 91 91 0.3 0.3 -
11.1.2 Canteens 9 9 0.4 - -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

11.2 Accommodation services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.2 Accommodation services 20 21 1.0 0.2 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Overall charges rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for hotel overnight accommodation.

12 Miscellaneous goods and services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12 Misc. goods and services 88 91 0.3 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There are small upward contributions coming from personal effects not elsewhere covered and insurance.

  • Offset by a downward contribution coming from personal care.

12.1 Personal care

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.1 Personal care 29 30 0.3 -0.3 -0.02
12.1.1 Hairdressing and personal grooming establishments 7 7 0.1 0.2 -
12.1.2/3 Appliances and products for personal care 22 23 0.3 -0.4 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to appliances and products for personal care, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming deodorant, mascara and liquid soap. Partially offset by small upward contributions from electric razors and toothpaste.

12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered 13 14 0.5 1.4 0.01
12.3.1 Jewellery, clocks and watches 8 9 - 0.4 -
12.3.2 Other personal effects 5 5 1.4 3.3 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to other personal effects, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, particularly for luggage items.

12.4 Social protection

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.4 Social protection 12 13 0.2 0.4 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.5 Insurance

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.5 Insurance 7 10 0.3 0.7 0.01
12.5.2 House contents insurance 2 2 -0.7 0.9 -
12.5.3 Health insurance 2 3 - - -
12.5.4 Transport insurance 3 5 1.1 1.0 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Average premiums rose this year by more than a year ago.

12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered 17 12 -0.1 -0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered 10 12 0.6 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

RPI Summary

Contributions to change in the RPI annual rate

GROUPS Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 109 0.5 -0.1 -0.06
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.2 -
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 58 56 -0.5 -0.4 0.01
TOBACCO 29 27 0.1 0.3 0.01
HOUSING 253 263 0.1 0.1 -
FUEL AND LIGHT 48 45 0.2 -0.1 -0.01
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 61 59 3.9 2.7 -0.08
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 62 65 0.2 0.7 0.03
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 42 4.3 4.7 0.01
PERSONAL GOODS AND SERVICES 40 41 0.7 0.5 -0.01
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 120 115 - -0.3 -0.01
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 22 25 1.7 2.6 0.03
LEISURE GOODS 30 28 2.8 0.7 -0.06
LEISURE SERVICES 71 78 0.1 0.1 -0.01

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RPI Notable Movements

RPI notable movements, February 2015

All items RPI Annual rate +1.0%, down from +1.1% last month
Lowest since November 2009 (+0.3%)
All items RPI exc MIPS (RPIX) Annual rate +1.0%, down from +1.2% last month
Also +1.0% in June 2009
Never lower since official series began in January 1976
All items RPI exc MIPS and indirect Annual rate +0.8%, down from +1.1% last month
taxes (RPIY) Never lower since official series began in January 1988
Food Annual rate -2.8%, down from -2.3% last month
Lowest since April 1957 (-3.1%)
Non seasonal food Annual rate -2.6%, down from -1.7% last month
Lowest since February 1958 (-3.9%)
Catering Annual rate +1.9%, down from +2.0% last month
Also +1.9% in November 2009
Last lower in October 2009 (+1.8%)
Fuel and light Annual rate -3.3%, down from -2.9% last month
Lowest since March 2010 (-4.4%)
Household goods Annual rate +0.9%, down from +2.1% last month
Lowest since March 2008 (+0.7%)
Motoring expenditure Annual rate -6.1%, down from -5.9% last month
Lowest since March 2009 (-7.0%)
Leisure goods Annual rate -1.5%, down from +0.6% last month
Also -1.5% in May 2012
Last lower in March 2012 (-1.8%)
All goods Annual rate -1.0%, down from -0.6% last month
Lowest since August 2002 (-1.1%)
All services Annual rate +2.1%, up from +2.0% last month
Also +2.1% in December 2014
Last higher in November 2014 (+2.8%)
Petrol and oil Annual rate -16.5%, down from -16.2% last month
Lowest since August 1986 (-19.4%)

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RPI Detailed Briefing

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. ONS consulted in March 2013 on whether to maintain this detailed RPI briefing and, based on views received, decided to continue with its publication.

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the RPI.

Food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 109 0.5 -0.1 -0.06

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to non-seasonal food.

  • Partially offset by seasonal food.

Seasonal food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
SEASONAL FOOD 19 18 -0.6 0.9 0.03
Home killed lamb 1 1 2.3 0.9 -
Fresh fish 2 2 2.6 2.6 -
Eggs 1 1 -0.5 -2.2 -
Unprocessed potatoes 2 2 -2.6 0.5 0.01
Other fresh vegetables 7 6 - 2.5 0.02
Fresh fruit 6 6 -2.4 -0.9 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Other fresh vegetables, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from courgettes;
    • Unprocessed potatoes, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago; and
    • Fresh fruit, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for strawberries.

Non-seasonal food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
NON-SEASONAL FOOD 95 91 0.7 -0.3 -0.09
Bread 5 4 -0.9 -0.2 -
Cereals 4 4 1.1 0.1 -
Biscuits and cakes 7 7 0.7 0.3 -
Beef 4 4 - 0.5 -
Imported lamb 1 1 1.9 - -
Pork 1 1 3.1 1.4 -
Bacon 2 2 2.0 0.8 -
Poultry 4 4 0.9 -0.6 -0.01
Other meat 7 7 -0.1 -0.2 -
Processed fish 2 2 0.4 -2.5 -0.01
Butter 1 1 6.2 1.6 -
Oils and fats 2 1 -2.4 -0.3 -
Cheese 4 4 0.3 -3.7 -0.02
Milk, fresh 4 3 0.2 -1.3 -
Milk products 4 4 0.7 -0.9 -0.01
Tea 1 1 -0.4 1.0 -
Soft drinks 11 10 2.7 0.2 -0.03
Sugar and preserves 1 1 0.4 -1.2 -
Sweets and chocolates 11 11 -0.5 -1.2 -0.01
Potato products 3 3 0.3 -5.4 -0.02
Processed vegetables 2 2 -1.2 0.6 -
Processed fruit 1 2 2.0 0.3 -
Other foods 11 11 1.6 2.2 0.01
Coffee and other hot drinks 2 1 -1.6 1.2 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Cheese, potato products, poultry, processed fish and milk products, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from potato crisps, cheddar cheese, frozen fish fingers and yoghurt/fromage frais;
    • Soft drinks, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from bottles of cola and other fizzy drinks, and fruit juices and squashes. Partially offset by a small upward contribution coming from packs of fruit drink bottles; and
    • Sweets and chocolates, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for boxes/cartons of chocolates.
  • Partially offset by other foods, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from cook-in sauces and dried potted snacks. Partially offset by downward contributions coming from pizzas and chocolate covered ice cream bars.

Catering

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.2 -
Restaurant meals 28 28 0.2 0.2 -
Canteen meals 3 3 0.2 -0.1 -
Take-away meals and snacks 16 16 0.4 0.3 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

Alcoholic drinks

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 58 56 -0.5 -0.4 0.01
Beer on sales 20 19 0.3 0.4 -
Beer off sales 5 5 -1.1 0.1 0.01
Wines and spirits on sales 18 18 0.3 0.2 -
Wines and spirits off sales 15 14 -2.4 -2.2 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to beer off sales, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for packs of bottled premium lager.

Tobacco

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
TOBACCO 29 27 0.1 0.3 0.01
Cigarettes 25 23 - 0.4 0.01
Other tobacco products 4 4 0.2 0.2 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to cigarettes, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

Housing

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSING 253 263 0.1 0.1 -
Rent 87 84 - 0.1 0.01
Mortgage interest payments 30 29 - -0.1 -
Council tax and rates 42 40 - - -
Water and other charges 14 14 - - -
Repairs and maintenance charges 10 9 -0.1 0.1 -
DIY materials 6 8 -0.2 0.4 -
Dwelling insurance and ground rent 6 6 -1.2 -0.2 0.01
House depreciation 58 73 0.5 0.3 -0.01

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Upward contributions came from:
    • Rent, where average charges rose this year but were little changed a year ago; and
    • Dwelling insurance and ground rent, where average premiums for dwelling insurance fell this year by less than a year ago.
  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution from house depreciation, with the smoothed house price index used to calculate this component rising this year by less than a year ago.

Fuel and light

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FUEL AND LIGHT 48 45 0.2 -0.1 -0.01
Coal and solid fuels 1 1 -0.1 - -
Electricity 22 21 0.2 - -
Gas 21 21 0.2 -0.7 -0.02
Oil and other fuels 4 2 0.1 4.4 0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to gas, where average charges fell this year but rose a year ago.

  • Partially offset by oil and other fuels, where average prices for kerosene rose this year by more than a year ago.

Household goods

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 61 59 3.9 2.7 -0.08
Furniture 21 22 8.3 5.3 -0.06
Furnishings 9 9 3.1 1.6 -0.01
Electrical appliances 6 5 -0.5 -0.1 -
Other household equipment 4 4 5.2 2.7 -0.01
Household consumables 12 12 1.0 0.8 -
Pet care 9 7 0.3 0.8 -

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture and, to a lesser extent, furnishings and other household equipment, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from leather settees, chests of drawers, kitchen wall units, floor rugs and crockery sets.

Household services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 62 65 0.2 0.7 0.03
Domestic services 13 13 0.1 0.3 -
Fees and subscriptions 24 26 - 0.5 0.01
Postage 1 1 - - -
Telephone charges 24 25 0.5 1.2 0.02

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  • Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Telephone charges, where average charges rose this year by more than a year ago, particularly for bundled telecommunication services; and
    • Fees and subscriptions, where charges overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from house contents insurance.

Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 42 4.3 4.7 0.01
Men’s outerwear 10 8 1.3 1.9 -
Women’s outerwear 16 16 8.5 9.2 0.01
Children’s outerwear 5 5 3.5 1.1 -0.01
Other clothing 5 5 1.9 1.4 -
Footwear 9 8 1.9 3.1 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to women’s outerwear and footwear, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

  • Partially offset by children’s outerwear, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

Personal goods & services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
PERSONAL GOODS & SERVICES 40 41 0.7 0.5 -0.01
Personal articles 10 10 1.8 2.0 -
Chemists' goods 16 17 0.4 - -0.01
Personal services 14 14 0.2 0.1 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to chemists' goods, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from deodorant.

Motoring expenditure

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 120 115 - -0.3 -0.01
Purchase of motor vehicles 36 42 0.3 - -0.01
Maintenance of motor vehicles 17 16 0.1 0.2 -
Petrol and oil 43 35 -1.0 -1.4 -
Vehicle tax and insurance 24 22 0.9 0.8 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to purchase of motor vehicles, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from second-hand cars.

Fares and other travel costs

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 22 25 1.7 2.6 0.03
Rail fares 7 7 1.8 1.4 -
Bus and coach fares 4 3 0.8 3.1 0.01
Other travel costs 11 15 1.9 3.1 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate.

  • Due to other travel costs and bus and coach fares, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, particularly for air fares and coach fares.

Leisure goods

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE GOODS 30 28 2.8 0.7 -0.06
Audio-visual equipment 7 7 2.4 - -0.02
CDs and tapes 2 2 6.1 5.4 -
Toys, photographic and sports goods 9 8 1.5 0.4 -0.01
Books and newspapers 7 6 4.0 1.5 -0.02
Gardening products 5 5 2.4 0.6 -0.01

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Books and newspapers; toys, photographic and sports goods and gardening products, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for eBooks and computer games; and
    • Audio-visual equipment, where prices overall were little changed this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from PC peripherals.

Leisure services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change Feb-14 1 month % change Feb-15 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE SERVICES 71 78 0.1 0.1 -0.01
TV licence and rentals 12 12 - - -
Entertainment and other recreation 15 15 0.2 0.1 -
Foreign holidays 34 41 - - -
UK holidays 10 10 0.6 0.4 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose by marginally less than a year ago using unrounded data.

Reconciliation of CPI and RPI

(Table 5 of the Consumer Price Inflation Reference Tables) (2.21 Mb Excel sheet)

This table identifies the main factors contributing to the differences between the unrounded inflation rates for the CPI and the RPI. These differences are broken down into: mortgage interest payments, other housing components excluded from the CPI, other differences in the coverage of goods and services, and the formula effect. The final column titled ‘other differences including weights’ is derived as a residual.

The difference between the CPI and RPI unrounded annual rates in February 2015 was -0.94 percentage points, widening from -0.84 percentage points in January 2015.

The main factor contributing to the widening was:

  • Other differences including weights, which decreased the CPI 12-month rate relative to the RPI 12-month rate by 0.13 percentage points between January and February 2015. The effect came mainly from: Clothing and footwear, and Games, toys and hobbies and equipment for sport and open air recreation.

The only offsetting factor was:

  • The formula effect, which decreased the RPI 12-month rate relative to the CPI 12-month rate by 0.03 percentage points between January and February 2015. The effect was mainly due to Clothing and footwear, and Furniture, household equipment and maintenance.

RPI Miscellaneous Data

Selected average prices

Description December 2014 January 2015 February 2015
Petrol per litre Diesel £1.25 £1.16 £1.15
Petrol £1.20 £1.09 £1.07
Alcohol pub prices Draught bitter (pint) £2.96 £2.96 £2.96
Draught lager (pint) £3.40 £3.40 £3.43
Whisky (per nip) £2.56 £2.56 £2.58
Cigarettes Per 20 king size £8.70 £8.69 £8.72

Table notes:

  1. Average prices are as recorded for the RPI.

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Changes in Mortgage Interest Rates

This table gives an estimate of the contribution that changes in the average mortgage interest rate (MI) make to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Changes in mortgage interest rates

Month 1-month % change in the RPI Approx. change in average MI rate Approx. contribution to the 1-month % change in the RPI
February 2014 +0.6 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
March 2014 +0.2 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
April 2014 +0.4 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
May 2014 +0.1 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
June 2014 +0.2 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
July 2014 -0.1 Negligible -
August 2014 +0.4 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
September 2014 +0.2 Negligible -
October 2014 +0.0 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
November 2014 -0.2 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
December 2014 +0.2 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
January 2015 -0.8 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
February 2015 +0.5 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points

Table notes:

  1. A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approx 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

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Outlook

The outlook is a summary of seasonal trends, selected news cuttings and other sources of information. It gives some indication of expected changes to the annual rate of the CPI and RPI in the next few months.

FOOD

Seasonal Food

  • Seasonal food prices have tended to fall in March of recent years and are typically dependent on weather conditions both in the UK and around the world.

Monthly % change for CPI seasonal food index

Year January February March
2009 -0.5 +1.8 -2.4
2010 -0.2 +1.8 +0.2
2011 -1.1 +0.6 -2.0
2012 -1.6 +1.2 -0.2
2013 +0.1 +1.6 -0.7
2014 +0.1 -0.4 -0.5
2015 -1.1 -0.3

Table notes:

  1. Seasonal food prices in the RPI tend to show a similar movement.

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ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO

  • As announced in the 2015 Budget, the duty rates on wine, beer and spirits will be reduced. These changes reduce the price of a typical bottle of spirits by 18 pence, a typical litre of cider by 1 penny, and a typical pint of beer by 1 penny.

  • As announced at Budget 2014, duty rates on tobacco products will increase by 2% above the RPI rate of inflation on all tobacco duty rates each year until the end of the next Parliament.

CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR

  • Prices for clothing and footwear tend to rise in March due to continued recoveries following the January sales.

Monthly % change for CPI clothing and footwear index

Year January February March
2009 -4.7 +0.8 +1.1
2010 -5.7 +2.0 +1.8
2011 -5.9 +3.6 +1.1
2012 -4.9 +2.9 +2.2
2013 -5.4 +2.0 +2.4
2014 -5.4 +1.1 +1.8
2015 -3.7 +1.3

Table notes:

  1. The clothing and footwear group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

  • ScottishPower has announced a reduction in its standard domestic gas prices of 4.8% from 20th February. (scottishpower.com 20 January 2015)

  • British Gas is to reduce household gas prices by 5% with effect from 27 February 2015. (britishgas.presscentre.com 9 February 2015)

  • SSE has announced a reduction of 4.1% in its household gas prices, taking effect from 30 April 2015. (sse.com 26 January 2015)

FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND MAINTENANCE

  • Prices tend to rise in March due to continued recoveries following the January sales.

Monthly % change for CPI furniture, household equipment and maintenance index

Year January February March
2009 -2.8 +2.4 +2.1
2010 -3.1 +1.1 +1.6
2011 -1.9 +1.4 +1.7
2012 -2.2 +1.5 +1.3
2013 -2.3 +1.5 +0.8
2014 -3.1 +2.4 +0.3
2015 -2.5 +1.4

Table notes:

  1. The household goods group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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HEALTH

Prescription Charges

  • The Department of Health has announced that NHS prescription charges for England will rise by 15 pence to £8.20 from 1 April 2015. (www.gov.uk 12 March 2015)

NHS Dental Charges

  • The Department of Health has announced that NHS dental charges for England will rise from £18.50 to £18.80 for Band 1, from £50.50 to £51.30 for Band 2 and from £219 to £222.50 for Band 3 from 1 April 2015. (www.gov.uk 12 March 2015)

TRANSPORT

Fuels and Lubricants

  • Oil prices have risen close to $56 a barrel as a weaker dollar offset concerns over global oversupply after Saudi Arabia said it was pumping around 10 million barrels per day, near a record high. (uk.reuters.com 23 March 2015)

  • When considering the price of petrol between February and March 2015, it may be useful to note that the average price of petrol was unchanged between February and March 2014, standing at 129.0 pence per litre as measured in the CPI.

  • A 1 pence change on average in the cost of a litre of motor fuel contributes approximately 0.03 percentage points to the 1-month change in the CPI.

Vehicle Excise Duty (VED)

  • The March 2015 Budget announced that legislation will be introduced to increase VED rates in line with the Retail Price Index (RPI) for cars, vans, and motorcycles, with effect from 1 April 2015.

Passenger Transport by Air

  • Air fares have tended to rise in March of recent years.

Monthly % change for CPI air fares index

Year January February March
2009 -27.3 -2.1 -0.6
2010 -28.4 +1.7 +7.7
2011 -30.9 +2.1 +2.1
2012 -28.4 -1.6 +4.4
2013 -20.5 +9.2 +5.3
2014 -18.5 +3.3 +1.9
2015 -17.1 +5.3

Table notes:

  1. The air fares index used in the RPI is the same as that used in the CPI, and is included in the other travel costs section.

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COMMUNICATION

Postal Services

  • Royal Mail has announced that from 30 March 2015 the prices of a First Class stamp and a Second Class stamp will rise by 1p to 63p and 54p respectively. (royalmailgroup.com 27 February 2015)

HOUSING (RPI)

Mortgage interest payments (MIPs)

  • The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% on Thursday 5 March 2015.

  • The change in average mortgage interest rates recorded in the RPI was -0.02% between February and March 2014. The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% in February 2014.

  • A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approximately 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Council Tax

  • The Scottish Government announced that the council tax freeze will continue in 2015-16. (news.scotland.gov.uk 24 February 2015)

  • The Northern Ireland Executive announced that in the 2015-16 rating year, there will be an increase of 1.4% for the domestic regional rates. (northernireland.gov.uk 10 March 2015)

  • The recorded increase for council tax and rates in the RPI last April was 0.9%.

Contacts

Media contact:

Tel: Luke Croydon +44 (0) 845 6041858

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Email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Statistical contact:

Tel: Philip Gooding +44 (0) 1633 455896

Email: philip.gooding@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Website: www.ons.gov.uk

Email: cpi@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Consumer Price Inflation recorded message (available after 9.45 am on release day):

Tel: +44 (0) 800 0113703

Consumer Price Inflation Enquiries:

Tel: +44 (0) 1633 456900

Background notes

  1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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