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Consumer Price Inflation Detailed Briefing Note, May 2015 This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 16 June 2015 Download PDF

Summary

Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

The CPI is a measure of consumer price inflation produced to international standards and in line with European regulations. First published in 1997 as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the CPI is the inflation measure used in the Government’s target for inflation.

The CPI is also used for purposes such as uprating pensions, wages and benefits and can aid in the understanding of inflation on family budgets. For more information see Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics (100.5 Kb Pdf) .

The main movements for CPI in May 2015 are:

  • The all items CPI is 128.2, up from 128.0 in April.

  • The all items CPI annual rate is 0.1%, up from -0.1% in April.

  • The annual rate for CPI excluding indirect taxes, CPIY, is 0.0%, up from -0.3% last month.

  • The annual rate for CPI at constant tax rates, CPI-CT, is 0.1%, up from -0.1% last month.

  • The CPI all goods index is 119.9, up from 119.7 in April.

  • The CPI all goods index annual rate is -1.8%, up from -2.0% last month.

  • The CPI all services index is 138.7, up from 138.5 in April.

  • The CPI all services index annual rate is 2.3%, up from 2.0% last month.

CPIH

The National Statistics status of CPIH has been discontinued pending work to investigate and improve the method for measuring owner occupiers’ housing costs in this index. Full details can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website and in an explanatory note (313.9 Kb Pdf) on this website. The improvements from the resulting development work were introduced as part of the February 2015 dataset with the historical series revised back to 2005. Further information on the changes is available in the following articles: Improvements to the measurement of Owner Occupiers’ Housing Costs and Private Housing Rental Prices (2.48 Mb Pdf) and Revising the weight of Owner Occupiers’ Housing in CPIH (197.4 Kb Pdf) .

CPIH is a measure of UK consumer price inflation that includes owner occupiers’ housing costs (OOH). These are the costs of housing services associated with owning, maintaining and living in one’s own home. OOH does not include costs such as utility bills, minor repairs and maintenance which are already included in the index. CPIH uses an approach called rental equivalence to measure OOH. Rental equivalence uses the rent paid for an equivalent house as a proxy for the costs faced by an owner occupier. In other words this answers the question “how much would I have to pay in rent to live in a home like mine?” for an owner occupier. OOH does not seek to capture increases in house prices. Although this may be inconsistent with some users’ expectations of measures of OOH, the inclusion of an asset price and therefore capital gains would make the index less suitable for a measure of consumption. OOH currently accounts for 17.8% of the expenditure weight of CPIH. This compares with a weight of 19.5% in 2005.

Currently, the method of calculation, the population coverage and the basket of goods and services are the same as the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), with the exception of OOH. The method of deriving the weights for CPIH and the data used for these are also the same as for CPI, with the exception of OOH. This can result in some differences from the CPI.

The main movements for CPIH in May 2015 are:

  • The all items CPIH is 126.0, up from 125.8 in April.

  • The all items CPIH annual rate is 0.4%, up from 0.2% in April.

  • The annual rate for CPIH excluding indirect taxes, CPIHY, is 0.3%, up from 0.1% last month.

  • The OOH component of CPIH is 116.4, up from 116.3 in April.

  • The OOH component annual rate is 1.8%, down from 1.9% last month.

  • The CPIH all goods index is 120.0, up from 119.8 in April.

  • The CPIH all goods index annual rate is -1.8%, up from -2.0% last month.

  • The CPIH all services index is 130.8, up from 130.6 in April.

  • The CPIH all services index annual rate is 2.2%, up from 2.0% last month.

Retail Prices Index (RPI) and RPIJ

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. The full assessment report can be found on the UK Statistics Authority website.

The RPI is a long-standing measure of UK inflation that has historically been used for a wide range of purposes such as the indexation of pensions, rents and index-linked gilts. For further information see Users and uses of consumer price inflation statistics (100.5 Kb Pdf) .

RPIJ is an improved variant of the Retail Prices Index which is calculated using formulae that meet international standards. The rationale for creating RPIJ was to give users a better alternative to the RPI if their needs were for a measure of inflation based on the same population, classifications, weights etc as the RPI. Currently, RPIJ also acts as an analytical series, in that it allows users to see the impact of using the Jevons (which meets international standards) in place of the Carli formula (which does not meet international standards) in the RPI. The use of the different formulae at the elementary aggregate level is currently the only difference between these indices. Detailed goods and services indices for RPIJ are not produced.

The main movements for RPI in May 2015 are:

  • The all items RPI is 258.5, up from 258.0 in April.

  • The all items RPI annual rate is 1.0%, up from 0.9% last month.

  • The all items RPIJ is 238.5, up from 238.0 in April.

  • The all items RPIJ annual rate is 0.4%, up from 0.3% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIX, the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments (MIPs) index, is 1.1%, up from 0.9% last month.

  • The all goods RPI is 199.3, up from 198.9 in April.

  • The all goods RPI annual rate is -0.7%, up from -0.8% last month.

  • The all services RPI is 349.7, up from 348.9 in April.

  • The all services RPI annual rate is 2.1%, up from 1.8% last month.

  • The annual rate for RPIY, the all items RPI excluding MIPs and indirect taxes index, is 1.0%, up from 0.8% last month.

  • The Tax and Price Index (TPI) for May is 225.5, up from 225.1 in April.

  • The TPI annual rate is 0.5%, up from 0.4% last month.

CPI Summary

Contributions to change in the CPI annual rate

CPI COICOP DIVISIONS Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01: Food and non-alcoholic beverages 112 110 -1.1 -0.1 0.12
02: Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 45 43 1.5 0.7 -0.04
03: Clothing and footwear 72 70 -0.1 0.5 0.04
04: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 129 128 - - -
05: Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 60 59 0.5 0.6 -
06: Health 24 25 0.1 0.3 0.01
07: Transport 152 149 -0.7 0.6 0.20
08: Communication 32 31 -0.5 -0.2 0.01
09: Recreation and culture 144 147 0.4 -0.1 -0.08
10: Education 22 26 - - -
11: Restaurants and hotels 120 121 0.4 0.2 -0.02
12: Miscellaneous goods and services 88 91 -0.1 -0.2 -0.01

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Large upward effects came from:

  • Transport, where prices overall rose by 0.6% between April and May 2015, compared with a fall of 0.7% a year earlier. The majority of the upward contribution came from transport services, particularly air transport where fares rose this year but fell a year ago. Changes in fares between April and May vary notably year on year, with the timing of Easter a likely factor in the movements. There was also a significant upward effect from motor fuels with average petrol prices rising by 2.5 pence per litre between April and May this year compared with a smaller rise of 0.4 pence per litre a year earlier. Diesel prices also rose this year, by 1.5 pence per litre, compared with a rise of 0.3 pence per litre a year ago;

  • Food and non-alcoholic beverages, where prices overall fell slightly by 0.1% between April and May this year but by a larger 1.1% between the same 2 months a year ago. The upward effect came from a variety of product groups, most notably vegetables, bread and cereals, and sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery; and

  • Clothing and footwear, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for women’s outerwear.

Large downward effects came from:

  • Recreation and culture, where prices overall fell by 0.1% between April and May 2015, compared with a rise of 0.4% between the same 2 months a year ago. The downward effects came principally from games, toys and hobbies (notably computer games) and data processing equipment (principally computer peripherals such as printers and routers); and

  • Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, where prices overall rose by 0.7% between April and May this year but by a larger 1.5% between the same 2 months a year ago. The downward effect came mostly from wine.

A small downward effect came from:

  • Restaurants and hotels, where prices rose this year by less than a year ago.

CPI Notable Movements

CPI notable movements, May 2015

All items CPI Annual rate +0.1%, up from -0.1% last month
Highest since January 2015 (+0.3%)
All items CPI exc energy, food, Annual rate +0.9%, up from +0.8% last month
alcohol and tobacco Highest since March 2015 (+1.0%)
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Annual rate +2.2%, down from +3.0% last month
Also +2.2% in January 2008 and May 2006
Last lower in February 2006 (+1.6%)
Housing, water, electricity, gas and Annual rate +0.4%, down from +0.5% last month
other fuels Lowest since August 2010 (+0.3%)
Communication Annual rate +1.2%, up from +1.0% last month
Highest since April 2014 (+1.9%)
Recreation and culture Annual rate -1.0%, down from -0.4% last month
Lowest since December 2008 (-1.2%)
Restaurants and hotels Annual rate +1.9%, down from +2.0% last month
Lowest since December 2009 (+1.8%)
All goods Annual rate -1.8%, up from -2.0% last month
Highest since January 2015 (-1.5%)
All services Annual rate +2.3%, up from +2.0% last month
Highest since March 2015 (+2.4%)

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CPI Detailed Briefing

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the CPI.

01 Food and non-alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01 Food & non-alcoholic beverages 112 110 -1.1 -0.1 0.12

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to food.

  • Partially offset by non-alcoholic beverages.

01.1 Food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.1 Food 99 97 -1.2 0.1 0.12
01.1.1 Bread and cereals 17 16 -1.6 0.1 0.03
01.1.2 Meat 22 22 -1.0 -0.7 0.01
01.1.3 Fish 4 4 3.4 1.0 -0.01
01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs 14 14 -0.1 - -
01.1.5 Oils and fats 2 2 -0.5 4.4 0.01
01.1.6 Fruit 10 10 -2.0 -0.1 0.02
01.1.7 Vegetables including potatoes 15 14 -2.6 -0.1 0.04
01.1.8 Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery 12 12 -1.6 1.0 0.03
01.1.9 Food products not elsewhere covered 3 3 -0.4 -1.1 -

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to vegetables including potatoes and, to a lesser extent, sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery; bread and cereals; fruit; oils and fats; and meat.

  • Partially offset by fish.

Bread and cereals

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from pizzas and dried potted snacks.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution coming from breakfast cereals.

Meat

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for back bacon.

Fish

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from fresh salmon fillets and frozen prawns.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution from fresh white fillets, where prices rose this year but fell a year ago.

Oils and fats

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Fruit

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from grapes and peaches/nectarines.

Vegetables including potatoes

  • Large upward effect.

  • Due to old white potatoes, iceberg lettuces, fresh tomatoes, broccoli and baked beans.

  • Partially offset by cauliflowers.

  • Old white potatoes
    • Small upward effect.
    • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.
    • In May 2014, EU potato prices were down nearly 50% year on year due to an increase in supply. (The Grocer 31 May 2014)
  • Iceberg lettuces
    • Small upward effect.
    • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago.
    • In May 2014, overall prices fell due to good supplies from Spain (The Grocer 31 May 2014).
  • Fresh tomatoes
    • Small upward effect.
    • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.
    • Price falls in May 2014 were due to good weather in Spain and the Canary Islands, and tomatoes from the Netherlands coming into season. (The Grocer 31 May 2014)
  • Broccoli
    • Small upward effect.
    • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.
  • Baked beans
    • Small upward effect.
    • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.
  • Cauliflowers
    • Small downward effect.
    • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for bags of sweets and chocolate covered ice cream bars.

01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
01.2 Non-alcoholic beverages 13 13 -0.8 -1.2 -0.01
01.2.1 Coffee, tea and cocoa 3 3 1.1 -1.8 -0.01
01.2.2 Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices 10 10 -1.3 -1.0 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to coffee, tea and cocoa, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from coffee.

02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 45 43 1.5 0.7 -0.04

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to alcoholic beverages and tobacco.

02.1 Alcoholic beverages

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.1 Alcoholic beverages 20 19 2.6 1.5 -0.02
02.1.1 Spirits 6 5 0.5 1.7 0.01
02.1.2 Wine 9 9 4.0 1.5 -0.02
02.1.3 Beer 5 5 2.8 1.2 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to wine and beer.

  • Partially offset by spirits.

Spirits

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from whisky.

Wine

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from red wine and New World white wine.

  • Partially offset by upward contributions coming from cider and European white wine.

Beer

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from multipacks of bottled premium lager.

  • Partially offset by a small upward contribution from multipacks of canned lager.

02.2 Tobacco

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
02.2 Tobacco 25 24 0.6 0.1 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

03 Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03 Clothing and footwear 72 70 -0.1 0.5 0.04

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to clothing and, to a lesser extent, footwear including repairs.

03.1 Clothing

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.1 Clothing 62 60 -0.1 0.5 0.04
03.1.2 Garments 55 54 -0.1 0.6 0.04
03.1.3 Other clothing and clothing accessories 6 5 -0.2 -0.5 -
03.1.4 Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing 1 1 0.1 0.2 -

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to garments, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from women’s outerwear; in particular formal trousers, plain t-shirts, showerproof jackets, blouses/shirts and dresses; and girls’ fashion tops. Partially offset by small downward contributions coming from women’s jackets and long-sleeved tops; and men’s t-shirts and sweatshirts.

03.2 Footwear including repairs

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
03.2 Footwear including repairs 10 10 0.2 0.7 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago.

04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 129 128 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small downward contribution coming from electricity, gas and other fuels.

  • Offset by a small upward contribution coming from actual rentals for housing.

04.1 Actual rentals for housing

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.1 Actual rentals for housing 70 72 0.1 0.2 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Average rental charges rose this year by more than a year ago.

04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.3 Regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling 2 2 0.6 0.1 -
04.3.1 Materials for maintenance and repair 1 1 1.3 0.3 -
04.3.2 Services for maintenance and repair 1 1 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.4 Other services related to the dwelling

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.4 Other services related to the dwelling 12 12 - - -
04.4.1 Water supply 6 6 - - -
04.4.3 Sewerage collection 6 6 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels 45 42 -0.1 -0.3 -0.01
04.5.1 Electricity 21 20 - - -
04.5.2 Gas 21 20 - -0.7 -0.01
04.5.3 Liquid fuels 2 1 -1.1 1.5 -
04.5.4 Solid fuels 1 1 -0.8 -2.1 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to gas, where average bills fell this year but were unchanged a year ago.

05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05 Furniture, household equipment and maintenance 60 59 0.5 0.6 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There are small upward contributions coming from glassware, tableware and household utensils; and household textiles.

  • Offset by a small downward contribution coming from furniture, furnishings and carpets.

05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.1 Furniture, furnishings and carpets 21 21 0.9 0.5 -0.01
05.1.1 Furniture and furnishings 16 15 0.8 0.3 -0.01
05.1.2 Carpets and other floor coverings 5 6 1.2 1.0 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture and furnishings, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from leather settees and bookcases/free standing shelving units.

05.2 Household textiles

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.2 Household textiles 7 6 0.5 1.9 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from bedding textiles.

05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.3 Household appliances, fitting and repairs 9 8 0.1 -0.3 -
05.3.1/2 Major appliances and small electric goods 8 7 0.1 -0.4 -
05.3.3 Repair of household appliances 1 1 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.4 Glassware, tableware and household utensils 6 6 -0.4 1.2 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.5 Tools and equipment for house and garden 4 5 0.4 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
05.6 Goods and services for routine maintenance 13 13 0.4 0.5 -
05.6.1 Non-durable household goods 5 5 0.8 0.6 -
05.6.2 Domestic services and household services 8 8 0.1 0.5 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06 Health

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06 Health 24 25 0.1 0.3 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to medical products, appliances and equipment.

06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.1 Medical products, appliances and equipment 10 12 - 0.5 0.01
06.1.1 Pharmaceutical products 6 7 0.1 0.6 -
06.1.2/3 Other medical and therapeutic equipment 4 5 - 0.4 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

06.2 Out-patient services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.2 Out-patient services 6 5 0.1 0.2 -
06.2.1/3 Medical and paramedical services 3 3 0.2 0.3 -
06.2.2 Dental services 3 2 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

06.3 Hospital services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
06.3 Hospital Services 8 8 0.1 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

07 Transport

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07 Transport 152 149 -0.7 0.6 0.20

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  • Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to transport services and operation of personal transport equipment.

07.1 Purchase of vehicles

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.1 Purchase of vehicles 44 40 -0.2 -0.2 -
07.1.1A New cars 23 24 0.3 0.3 -
07.1.1B Second-hand cars 18 14 -0.5 -1.3 -0.01
07.1.2/3 Motorcycles and bicycles 3 2 -2.1 0.2 0.01

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small upward contribution coming from motorcycles and bicycles.

  • Partially offset by second-hand cars.

Second-hand cars

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago.

Motorcycles and bicycles

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from adult bicycles.

07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.2 Operation of personal transport equipment 76 77 0.2 0.9 0.06
07.2.1 Spare parts and accessories 5 6 - -0.1 -
07.2.2 Fuels and lubricants 35 34 0.3 1.9 0.05
07.2.3 Maintenance and repairs 23 23 0.1 0.3 -
07.2.4 Other services 13 14 0.1 -0.1 -

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to fuels and lubricants.

  • The average price of petrol across the month, as recorded for the CPI, rose by 2.5 pence per litre between April and May 2015 to stand at 115.3 pence per litre.

  • Last year, the average price of petrol rose by 0.4 pence between April and May 2014 to stand at 129.4 pence per litre.

  • The average price of diesel rose by 1.5 pence per litre between April and May 2015 to stand at 120.7 pence per litre, compared with a rise of 0.3 pence per litre a year earlier to stand at 136.3 pence per litre.

07.3 Transport services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
07.3 Transport services 32 32 -3.2 0.9 0.14
07.3.1 Passenger transport by railway 11 12 -0.8 -1.1 -0.01
07.3.2 Passenger transport by road 11 12 -2.6 -0.8 0.02
07.3.3 Passenger transport by air 6 6 -3.2 10.4 0.09
07.3.4 Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway 4 2 -9.9 -6.4 0.03

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to passenger transport by air and, to a lesser extent, passenger transport by sea and inland waterway and passenger transport by road.

  • Partially offset by passenger transport by railway.

Passenger transport by railway

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for international rail journeys.

Passenger transport by road

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for coach fares.

Passenger transport by air

  • Large upward effect.

  • Average air fares rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for European flights.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution coming from long-haul flights, where average fares rose this year by less than a year ago.

Passenger transport by sea and inland waterway

  • Small upward effect.

  • Average international sea fares fell this year by less than a year ago.

08 Communication

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08 Communication 32 31 -0.5 -0.2 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to telephone equipment and services.

08.1 Postal services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.1 Postal services 2 2 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
08.2/3 Telephone equipment and services 30 29 -0.5 -0.3 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from mobile telephone charges.

  • Partially offset by a small downward contribution coming from mobile phone applications, where prices fell this year but rose a year ago.

09 Recreation and culture

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09 Recreation and culture 144 147 0.4 -0.1 -0.08

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to other recreational items, gardens and pets; and audio-visual equipment and related products.

  • Partially offset by recreational and cultural services; and books, newspapers and stationery.

09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.1 Audio-visual equipment and related products 22 23 0.5 -1.7 -0.05
09.1.1 Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures 5 5 0.3 2.4 0.01
09.1.2 Photographic, cinematographic and optical equipment 3 3 0.2 0.6 -
09.1.3 Data processing equipment 8 9 - -4.8 -0.04
09.1.4 Recording media 5 5 2.0 -2.1 -0.02
09.1.5 Repair of audio-visual equipment and related products 1 1 - 0.2 -

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to data processing equipment and, to a lesser extent, recording media.

  • Partially offset by equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures.

Equipment for the reception and reproduction of sound and pictures

  • Small upward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from hi-fi systems.

Data processing equipment

  • Large downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but were little changed a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from PC peripherals and tablet computers.

Recording media

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for DVDs and CDs.

09.2 Other major durables for recreation and culture

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.2.1/2 Major durables for in/outdoor recreation 9 10 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.3 Other recreational items, gardens and pets 36 36 2.0 0.5 -0.06
09.3.1 Games, toys and hobbies 21 21 3.3 0.7 -0.05
09.3.2 Equipment for sport and open-air recreation 3 4 0.7 0.7 -
09.3.3 Gardens, plants and flowers 4 4 -0.2 -0.3 -
09.3.4/5 Pets, related products and services 8 7 0.5 -0.1 -0.01

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to games, toys and hobbies and, to a lesser extent, pets, related products and services.

Games, toys and hobbies

  • Large downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from computer games, preschool activity toys and children’s soft toys.

Pets, related products and services

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

09.4 Recreational and cultural services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.4 Recreational and cultural services 31 31 -0.1 0.4 0.01
09.4.1 Recreational and sporting services 9 8 - 0.2 -
09.4.2 Cultural services 22 23 -0.2 0.4 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to cultural services, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, particularly for admission to live music events.

09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.5 Books, newspapers and stationery 14 14 -1.8 -0.9 0.01
09.5.1 Books 4 4 -3.8 -0.9 0.01
09.5.2 Newspapers and periodicals 5 5 -1.7 -0.7 0.01
09.5.3/4 Misc. printed matter, stationery, drawing materials 5 5 -0.1 -1.0 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to books; and newspapers and periodicals, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for eBooks.

09.6 Package holidays

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
09.6 Package holidays 32 33 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

10 Education

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
10 Education 22 26 - - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

11 Restaurants and hotels

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11 Restaurants and hotels 120 121 0.4 0.2 -0.02

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to catering services and accommodation services.

11.1 Catering services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.1 Catering services 100 100 0.2 0.1 -0.01
11.1.1 Restaurants and cafes 91 91 0.2 0.1 -0.01
11.1.2 Canteens 9 9 0.3 -0.2 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

Restaurants and cafes

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

Canteens

  • Small downward effect.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.

11.2 Accommodation services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
11.2 Accommodation services 20 21 1.3 0.9 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for overnight hotel stays.

12 Miscellaneous goods and services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12 Misc. goods and services 88 91 -0.1 -0.2 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to financial services not elsewhere covered.

  • Partially offset by personal effects not elsewhere covered.

12.1 Personal care

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.1 Personal care 29 30 -0.7 -0.7 -
12.1.1 Hairdressing and personal grooming establishments 7 7 0.2 0.1 -
12.1.2/3 Appliances and products for personal care 22 23 -0.9 -0.9 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.3 Personal effects not elsewhere covered 13 14 - 0.4 0.01
12.3.1 Jewellery, clocks and watches 8 9 0.3 0.4 -
12.3.2 Other personal effects 5 5 -0.3 0.3 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago.

12.4 Social protection

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.4 Social protection 12 13 0.2 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.5 Insurance

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.5 Insurance 7 10 0.1 -0.2 -
12.5.2 House contents insurance 2 2 0.7 -1.1 -
12.5.3 Health insurance 2 3 - - -
12.5.4 Transport insurance 3 5 -0.3 - -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.6 Financial services not elsewhere covered 17 12 0.1 -0.6 -0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from mortgage fees.

12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to CPI annual rate change
12.7 Other services not elsewhere covered 10 12 0.2 0.2 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

RPI Summary

Contributions to change in the RPI annual rate

GROUPS Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 109 -1.0 -0.2 0.09
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.1 -0.01
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 58 56 1.1 0.5 -0.04
TOBACCO 29 27 0.6 0.1 -0.01
HOUSING 253 263 0.3 0.1 -0.05
FUEL AND LIGHT 48 45 -0.1 -0.3 -0.01
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 61 59 0.6 0.5 -0.01
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 62 65 - 0.1 0.01
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 42 0.2 0.6 0.02
PERSONAL GOODS AND SERVICES 40 41 -0.1 -0.2 -
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 120 115 - 0.4 0.05
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 22 25 -2.2 2.6 0.12
LEISURE GOODS 30 28 0.2 -0.5 -0.02
LEISURE SERVICES 71 78 0.2 0.2 -

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RPI Notable Movements

RPI notable movements, May 2015

All items RPI Annual rate +1.0%, up from +0.9% last month
Also +1.0% in February 2015
Last higher in January 2015 (+1.1%)
All items RPI exc MIPS (RPIX) Annual rate +1.1%, up from +0.9% last month
Highest since January 2015 (+1.2%)
All items RPI exc MIPS and indirect Annual rate +1.0%, up from +0.8% last month
taxes (RPIY) Highest since January 2015 (+1.1%)
Seasonal food Annual rate -0.6%, up from -1.9% last month
Highest since March 2014 (+0.8%)
Catering Annual rate +1.7%, down from +1.8% last month
Also +1.7% in March 2015
Never lower since official series began in January 1988
Alcoholic drink Annual rate +0.4%, down from +1.0% last month
Never lower since official series began in January 1988
Tobacco Annual rate +5.9%, down from +6.3% last month
Lowest since December 2009 (+4.5%)
Housing Annual rate +3.0%, down from +3.2% last month
Also +3.0% in June 2014
Last lower in May 2014 (+2.8%)
Household goods Annual rate +0.9%, down from +1.0% last month
Also +0.9% in February 2015
Last lower in March 2008 (+0.7%)
Fares and other travel Annual rate +5.8%, up from +0.9% last month
Highest since April 2014 (+7.5%)
Leisure goods Annual rate -2.2%, down from -1.5% last month
Lowest since February 2012 (-2.3%)
All goods Annual rate -0.7%, up from -0.8% last month
Highest since January 2015 (-0.6%)
All services Annual rate +2.1%, up from +1.8% last month
Also +2.1% in February 2015 and December 2014
Last higher in November 2014 (+2.8%)

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RPI Detailed Briefing

In accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, the Retail Prices Index and its derivatives have been assessed against the Code of Practice for Official Statistics and found not to meet the required standard for designation as National Statistics. ONS consulted in March 2013 on whether to maintain this detailed RPI briefing and, based on views received, decided to continue with its publication.

  • Weights are specified as parts per 1000 in the RPI.

Food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FOOD 114 109 -1.0 -0.2 0.09

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to non-seasonal food and, to a lesser extent, seasonal food.

Seasonal food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
SEASONAL FOOD 19 18 -1.5 -0.2 0.02
Home killed lamb 1 1 -2.2 -4.2 -
Fresh fish 2 2 7.3 -0.9 -0.02
Eggs 1 1 -4.8 0.2 -
Unprocessed potatoes 2 2 -4.2 1.5 0.01
Other fresh vegetables 7 6 -1.9 -0.3 0.01
Fresh fruit 6 6 -2.3 0.3 0.02

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Fresh fruit and unprocessed potatoes, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from grapes, strawberries and old white potatoes; and
    • Other fresh vegetables, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from iceberg lettuces and fresh tomatoes. Partially offset by a small downward contribution coming from cauliflowers, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.
  • Partially offset by fresh fish, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for frozen prawns and fresh salmon fillets.

Non-seasonal food

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
NON-SEASONAL FOOD 95 91 -0.9 -0.2 0.07
Bread 5 4 -1.3 0.7 0.01
Cereals 4 4 -0.1 - -
Biscuits and cakes 7 7 -1.1 -1.1 -
Beef 4 4 0.8 0.5 -
Imported lamb 1 1 4.0 0.7 -
Pork 1 1 -1.9 -0.6 -
Bacon 2 2 -2.7 -1.1 -
Poultry 4 4 -0.3 0.1 -
Other meat 7 7 -0.7 -0.2 -
Processed fish 2 2 - -2.5 -
Butter 1 1 -1.0 1.8 -
Oils and fats 2 1 -0.8 5.4 0.01
Cheese 4 4 -0.7 -1.3 -
Milk, fresh 4 3 - - -
Milk products 4 4 1.8 0.3 -0.01
Tea 1 1 1.0 -1.3 -
Soft drinks 11 10 -1.0 -1.0 -
Sugar and preserves 1 1 -6.1 -0.4 0.01
Sweets and chocolates 11 11 -1.5 0.6 0.02
Potato products 3 3 -1.9 -1.4 -
Processed vegetables 2 2 -3.6 1.8 0.01
Processed fruit 1 2 -0.4 0.1 -
Other foods 11 11 -1.9 0.1 0.02
Coffee and other hot drinks 2 1 1.2 -2.0 -

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Sweets and chocolates, other foods, bread, oils and fats and processed vegetables, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from bags of sweets, dried potted snacks, pizzas, chocolate covered ice cream bars, chilled ready meals and baked beans. Partially offset by small downward contributions coming from cook-in sauces and mayonnaise, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago; and
    • Sugar and preserves, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for granulated sugar.
  • Partially offset by milk products, where prices rose this year by less than a year ago.

Catering

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CATERING 47 47 0.2 0.1 -0.01
Restaurant meals 28 28 0.2 - -
Canteen meals 3 3 0.3 -0.1 -
Take-away meals and snacks 16 16 0.2 0.2 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

Alcoholic drinks

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 58 56 1.1 0.5 -0.04
Beer on sales 20 19 0.2 - -
Beer off sales 5 5 2.2 2.4 -
Wines and spirits on sales 18 18 0.2 0.1 -
Wines and spirits off sales 15 14 3.1 0.7 -0.03

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  • Large downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to wines and spirits off sales, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from red wine and New World white wine. Partially offset by a small upward contribution coming from European white wine, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

Tobacco

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
TOBACCO 29 27 0.6 0.1 -0.01
Cigarettes 25 23 0.7 0.1 -0.02
Other tobacco products 4 4 -0.1 0.2 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to cigarettes, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago.

Housing

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSING 253 263 0.3 0.1 -0.05
Rent 87 84 0.1 0.2 0.01
Mortgage interest payments 30 29 -0.2 -0.3 -
Council tax and rates 42 40 - - -
Water and other charges 14 14 - - -
Repairs and maintenance charges 10 9 - - -
DIY materials 6 8 1.0 0.3 -
Dwelling insurance and ground rent 6 6 0.1 -0.1 -
House depreciation 58 73 1.2 0.2 -0.05

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  • Largest downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to house depreciation, with the smoothed house price index used to calculate this component rising this year by less than a year ago.

  • Partially offset by rent, where average charges rose this year by more than a year ago.

Fuel and light

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FUEL AND LIGHT 48 45 -0.1 -0.3 -0.01
Coal and solid fuels 1 1 -0.8 -2.1 -
Electricity 22 21 - - -
Gas 21 21 - -0.7 -0.01
Oil and other fuels 4 2 -1.0 1.3 0.01

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to gas, where average bills fell this year but were unchanged a year ago.

  • Partially offset by oil and other fuels, where average prices for kerosene rose this year but fell a year ago.

Household goods

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD GOODS 61 59 0.6 0.5 -0.01
Furniture 21 22 1.2 0.6 -0.01
Furnishings 9 9 1.1 1.4 -
Electrical appliances 6 5 -1.6 -0.3 0.01
Other household equipment 4 4 0.2 0.7 -
Household consumables 12 12 0.7 0.3 -
Pet care 9 7 0.5 - -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to furniture, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contributions coming from leather settees, bookcases/free standing shelving units and kitchen furniture. There is a partially offsetting upward contribution coming from upholstered armchairs, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago.

  • Partially offset by electrical appliances, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago.

Household services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
HOUSEHOLD SERVICES 62 65 - 0.1 0.01
Domestic services 13 13 0.1 0.3 -
Fees and subscriptions 24 26 0.4 0.1 -0.01
Postage 1 1 - - -
Telephone charges 24 25 -0.5 - 0.01

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to telephone charges, where prices overall were little changed this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from mobile telephone charges. There is a partially offsetting downward contribution coming from mobile phone applications, where prices fell this year but rose a year ago.

  • Partially offset by fees and subscriptions, where average charges rose this year by less than a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from house contents insurance.

Clothing and footwear

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR 45 42 0.2 0.6 0.02
Men’s outerwear 10 8 1.5 -0.1 -0.02
Women’s outerwear 16 16 -0.4 0.8 0.02
Children’s outerwear 5 5 -0.3 1.5 0.01
Other clothing 5 5 0.1 0.1 -
Footwear 9 8 0.2 0.4 -

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  • Small upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to women’s outerwear and children’s outerwear, where prices overall rose this year but fell a year ago, with the main upward contributions coming from women’s dresses, t-shirts, showerproof jackets and sports tops. There is a partially offsetting downward contribution coming from women’s casual jackets.

  • Partially offset by men’s outerwear, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago, particularly for branded sports sweatshirts.

Personal goods & services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
PERSONAL GOODS & SERVICES 40 41 -0.1 -0.2 -
Personal articles 10 10 0.4 0.2 -
Chemists' goods 16 17 -0.8 -0.6 -
Personal services 14 14 0.1 0.1 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

Motoring expenditure

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
MOTORING EXPENDITURE 120 115 - 0.4 0.05
Purchase of motor vehicles 36 42 -0.2 -0.6 -0.02
Maintenance of motor vehicles 17 16 0.2 0.2 -
Petrol and oil 43 35 0.4 1.9 0.05
Vehicle tax and insurance 24 22 -0.2 0.2 0.01

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  • Large upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Petrol and oil, where prices overall rose this year by more than a year ago. The price of petrol, as recorded for the RPI, rose by 2.6 pence per litre between April and May 2015, to stand at 115.1 pence per litre, compared with a rise of 0.6 pence per litre last year to stand at 129.5 pence per litre. Diesel prices rose by 1.4 pence per litre, to stand at 120.6 pence per litre in May 2015, compared with a rise of 0.3 pence per litre last year to stand at 136.4 pence per litre; and, to a lesser extent,
    • Vehicle tax and insurance, where average premiums for car insurance rose this year but fell a year ago.
  • Partially offset by purchase of motor vehicles, where prices overall fell this year by more than a year ago, particularly for second-hand cars.

Fares and other travel costs

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
FARES AND OTHER TRAVEL COSTS 22 25 -2.2 2.6 0.12
Rail fares 7 7 -0.8 -0.9 -
Bus and coach fares 4 3 -4.2 -1.3 0.01
Other travel costs 11 15 -2.2 4.9 0.11

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  • Largest upward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Other travel costs, where average air fares rose this year but fell a year ago; and to a lesser extent
    • Bus and coach fares, where average coach fares fell this year by less than a year ago.

Leisure goods

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE GOODS 30 28 0.2 -0.5 -0.02
Audio-visual equipment 7 7 - -1.4 -0.01
CDs and tapes 2 2 2.3 -1.7 -0.01
Toys, photographic and sports goods 9 8 2.3 0.8 -0.01
Books and newspapers 7 6 -2.4 -0.8 0.01
Gardening products 5 5 0.2 -0.1 -

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  • Small downward effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • Due to:
    • Audio-visual equipment, where prices overall fell this year but were little changed a year ago, with the main downward contribution coming from PC peripherals;
    • Toys, photographic and sports goods, where prices overall rose this year by less than a year ago, particularly for computer games; and
    • CDs and tapes, where prices overall fell this year but rose a year ago.
  • Partially offset by books and newspapers, where prices overall fell this year by less than a year ago, particularly for eBooks.

Leisure services

  Weight 2014 Weight 2015 1 month % change May 2014 1 month % change May 2015 Contribution to RPI annual rate change
LEISURE SERVICES 71 78 0.2 0.2 -
TV licence and rentals 12 12 - - -
Entertainment and other recreation 15 15 - 0.4 0.01
Foreign holidays 34 41 0.1 0.1 -
UK holidays 10 10 0.9 0.6 -

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  • Negligible overall effect on the all items 12-month rate change.

  • There is a small upward contribution coming from entertainment and other recreation, where prices overall rose this year but were little changed a year ago, with the main upward contribution coming from admission to live music events. There is a small downward contribution coming from theatre admissions, where average charges rose this year by less than a year ago.

Reconciliation of CPI and RPI

(Table 5 of the Consumer Price Inflation Reference Tables) (2.49 Mb Excel sheet)

This table identifies the main factors contributing to the differences between the unrounded inflation rates for the CPI and the RPI. These differences are broken down into: mortgage interest payments, other housing components excluded from the CPI, other differences in the coverage of goods and services, and the formula effect. The final column titled ‘other differences including weights’ is derived as a residual.

The difference between the CPI and RPI unrounded annual rates in May 2015 was -0.93 percentage points, narrowing from -1.03 percentage points in April 2015.

The main factors contributing to the narrowing were:

  • Other housing components, which decreased the RPI 12-month rate relative to the CPI 12-month rate by 0.05 percentage points between April and May 2015 but are excluded from the CPI. The effect was mainly due to house depreciation.

  • Formula effect, which decreased the RPI 12-month rate relative to the CPI 12-month rate by 0.04 percentage points between April and May 2015. The effect was mainly due to food and non-alcoholic beverages.

There were no offsetting factors.

RPI Miscellaneous Data

Selected average prices

Description March 2015 April 2015 May 2015
Petrol per litre Diesel £1.18 £1.19 £1.21
Petrol £1.11 £1.13 £1.15
Alcohol pub prices Draught bitter (pint) £2.97 £2.96 £2.95
Draught lager (pint) £3.44 £3.44 £3.44
Whisky (per nip) £2.59 £2.58 £2.59
Cigarettes Per 20 king size £8.71 £8.86 £8.87

Table notes:

  1. Average prices are as recorded for the RPI.

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Changes in Mortgage Interest Rates

This table gives an estimate of the contribution that changes in the average mortgage interest rate (MI) make to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Changes in mortgage interest rates

Month 1-month % change in the RPI Approx. change in average MI rate Approx. contribution to the 1-month % change in the RPI
May 2014 +0.1 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
June 2014 +0.2 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
July 2014 -0.1 Negligible -
August 2014 +0.4 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
September 2014 +0.2 Negligible -
October 2014 +0.0 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
November 2014 -0.2 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
December 2014 +0.2 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
January 2015 -0.8 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
February 2015 +0.5 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
March 2015 +0.2 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points
April 2015 +0.4 Down -0.01% points -0.01% points
May 2015 +0.2 Down -0.02% points -0.02% points

Table notes:

  1. A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approx 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

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Outlook

The outlook is a summary of seasonal trends, selected news cuttings and other sources of information. It gives some indication of expected changes to the annual rate of the CPI and RPI in the next few months.

FOOD

Seasonal Food

  • Seasonal food prices have shown a mixed pattern of rises and falls in June of recent years, but are typically dependent on weather conditions both in the UK and around the world.

Monthly % change for CPI seasonal food index

Year April May June
2009 -0.6 +2.0 -0.5
2010 +0.6 -0.6 +0.9
2011 -1.1 +2.9 +0.5
2012 -1.3 +0.5 +0.7
2013 +0.5 -0.3 -1.5
2014 -1.7 -1.6 -0.5
2015 -0.7 +0.1

Table notes:

  1. Seasonal food prices in the RPI tend to show a similar movement.

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CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR

  • With the exception of 2014, prices for clothing and footwear tend to fall in June as a result of the summer sales.

Monthly % change for CPI clothing and footwear index

Year April May June
2009 +0.2 +0.4 -1.5
2010 +2.2 +0.3 -2.1
2011 +1.3 +0.4 -1.9
2012 +0.2 -0.1 -4.2
2013 +0.0 +1.2 -1.9
2014 +1.0 -0.1 +0.6
2015 +0.7 +0.5

Table notes:

  1. The clothing and footwear group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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FURNITURE, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND MAINTENANCE

  • With the exception of 2012 and 2013, prices for furniture, household equipment and maintenance have tended to rise in June.

Monthly % change for CPI furniture, household equipment and maintenance index

Year April May June
2009 -1.0 +1.0 +1.0
2010 -1.6 +1.2 +0.7
2011 -0.8 +0.4 +0.4
2012 -1.2 +0.6 +0.0
2013 -1.3 +1.1 -0.5
2014 -0.9 +0.5 +0.2
2015 -1.2 +0.6

Table notes:

  1. The household goods group in the RPI exhibits a similar seasonal pattern.

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TRANSPORT

Fuels and Lubricants

  • Oil prices declined as high production offset strong refinery runs, but a storm that could impact Gulf of Mexico operations supported U.S. crude. Front month U.S. crude had fallen 26 cents to $59.70 a barrel and Brent futures were down 44 cents at $63.43 a barrel. (uk.reuters.com 15 June 2015)

  • When considering the price of petrol between May and June 2015, it may be useful to note that the average price of petrol rose by 0.6 pence per litre between May and June 2014, standing at 130.0 pence per litre as measured in the CPI.

  • A 1 pence change on average in the cost of a litre of motor fuel contributes approximately 0.03 percentage points to the 1-month change in the CPI.

Passenger Transport by Air

  • With the exception of 2013, air fares have tended to rise in June.

Monthly % change for CPI air fares index

Year April May June
2009 -1.2 +6.9 +3.0
2010 -1.0 +6.0 +10.0
2011 +29.0 -11.1 +8.5
2012 +7.4 +1.4 +7.4
2013 -6.4 +22.0 -2.8
2014 +17.9 -3.2 +7.0
2015 +4.5 +10.4

Table notes:

  1. The air fares index used in the RPI is the same as that used in the CPI, and is included in the other travel costs section.

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HOUSING (RPI)

Mortgage interest payments (MIPs)

  • The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% on Wednesday 3 June 2015.

  • The change in average mortgage interest rates recorded in the RPI was -0.01% between May and June 2014. The Bank of England Bank Rate remained unchanged at 0.5% in May 2014.

  • A one percentage point change in the average mortgage interest rate contributes approximately 0.9 percentage points to the 1-month percentage change in the RPI.

Contacts

Media contact:

Tel: Luke Croydon +44 (0) 845 6041858

Out of hours media line +44 (0) 7867 906553

Email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Statistical contact:

Tel: Philip Gooding +44 (0) 1633 455896

Email: philip.gooding@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Website: www.ons.gov.uk

Email: cpi@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Consumer Price Inflation recorded message (available after 9.45 am on release day):

Tel: +44 (0) 800 0113703

Consumer Price Inflation Enquiries:

Tel: +44 (0) 1633 456900

Background notes

  1. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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