News release

11 April 2007

Met Office forecast for Summer 2007

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office issued today, reveals that this summer is, yet again, likely to be warmer than normal.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

They also suggest the chances of temperatures similar to those experienced in 2003 and 2006 are around 1 in 8.

The forecast for rainfall is less certain, and currently there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.

The Met Office forecast of global mean temperature for 2007, issued on 4 January 2007 in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, stated that 2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.

Through the summer we can experience periods of very hot weather which has implications for people's health. The Met Office works extensively with the Department of Health (DoH) to raise awareness of how we can protect ourselves in hot weather.

Each summer the Met Office and DoH operate a Heat-Health programme aimed at alleviating the effects of the hottest weather on vulnerable groups. During the 2003 heatwave there were more than 2,000 directly attributed excess deaths in the UK and over 20,000 in France. Dr Tish Laing-Morton, Clinical Director at the Met Office is clear about what the benefits of the service are, saying: “The very old and the very young are particularly susceptible to extreme heat, particularly when very warm nights prevent the body from recuperating from very hot days. Also, people who suffer with breathing difficulties are likely to find their symptoms heightened.”

The Met Office will issue an update of the summer forecast on 1 May 2007.

Full Summer 2007 forecast

Met Office and health