Forecast verification

The Met Office has been producing and verifying short-period (up to 5 or 6 days ahead) forecasts for every tropical cyclone since 1988. Verification of the performance of the global model in predicting tropical cyclone tracks has been routinely published on a monthly and seasonal basis during that time.

The links below show the forecast verification for all tropical cyclones during the last couple of seasons. The 'Observed and forecast tracks' links show forecast tracks for individual tropical cyclones accompanied by comments on the Met Office global model performance. The 'Seasonal verification reports' links show the global model's performance over the season as a whole. The 'Forecast error graphs' links show the long-term trend in track forecast errors since 1988 for various ocean basins as well as comparisons between the Met Office model and other forecasts.

For verification statistics from seasons earlier than those presented here please email tropical_cyclones@metoffice.gov.uk. For information on current tropical cyclones go to the tropical cyclone warnings and guidance page.

Verification of short-period forecasts
Observed and forecast tracks
Southern hemisphere 2009-10 Northern hemisphere 2009 Southern hemisphere 2008-9 Northern hemisphere 2008
Seasonal verification reports
Southern hemisphere 2008-9 Northern hemisphere 2008 Southern hemisphere 2007-8 Northern hemisphere 2007

Forecast error graphs
Northern hemisphere North-west Pacific North-east Pacific North Atlantic North Indian
Southern hemisphere South-west Indian Australian
Met Office v. Other models in the Atlantic Met Office v. Other models in the NE Pacific Met Office v. ECMWF

Tropical cyclone forecast track verification method

Method used to verify the forecast tracks of tropical cyclones in the Met Office global model.

Verification of forecast tracks appendix

Monthly verification

From 1993 to 2008 the Met Office issued a document entitled "Monthly Summary of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Forecasts" which was sent to many individuals and meteorological centres around the globe with an interest in the forecasting of tropical cyclones. It contained information on the month's tropical cyclone tracks and statistics and charts relating to the performance of the Met Office global model in forecasting the track of each storm. The last edition of the monthly bulletin was published in December 2008. Editions for 2007 and 2008 are included below, but these links will be removed in the near future.

Monthly summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts
2008 2007
January 2008 January 2007
February 2008 February 2007
March 2008 March 2007
April 2008 April 2007
May 2008 May 2007
June 2008 June 2007
July 2008 July 2007
August 2008 August 2007
September 2008 September 2007
October 2008 October 2007
November 2008 November 2007
December 2008 December 2007

June and December bulletins contain preliminary summaries of the southern and northern hemisphere seasons respectively.


Related internet links

Tropical cyclone FAQ

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