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Release: Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015

Released: 28 January 2016 (Latest) Next edition: 27 April 2016


Robert Smith

Expenditure, Household and Economic Indicators

Telephone: +44 (0)1633 651618

Categories: Economy, National Accounts, National Income, Expenditure and Output

Frequency of release: Quarterly

Language: English

Geographical coverage: UK

Geographical breakdown: UK and GB

  • Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015. 

  • Output increased in 2 of the main industrial groupings within the economy in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015. Services increased by 0.7% and agriculture increased by 0.6%. In contrast, production decreased by 0.2%, while construction output decreased by 0.1%.

  • GDP was 1.9% higher in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP in 2015 as a whole increased by 2.2% on 2014. 

  • In Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015, GDP was estimated to have been 6.6% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.1%. 

  • The preliminary estimate of GDP is produced using the output approach to measuring GDP. At this stage, data content is less than half of the total required for the final output estimate. The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available, but these revisions are typically small between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP. 

  • All figures in this release are seasonally adjusted. In line with the national accounts revision policy, no earlier periods have been revised.

Preliminary estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) containing constant price Gross Value Added (GVA) data for the UK. Data are available by industrial sector.

Monthly data for Index of Production (currently accounts for around 14.9% of UK GDP)

Monthly data for Construction (currently accounts for around 5.9% of UK GDP)

Monthly data for Retail Sales Index

Monthly data for Index of Services (currently accounts for around 78.6% of UK GDP)

Content from the Office for National Statistics.
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