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Release: Subnational Population Projections, Interim 2011-based

Released: 28 September 2012


Suzanne Dunsmith

Population Projections Unit

Telephone: +44 (0) 1329 444652

Categories: Sub-national Population Projections, Population, Population Change, Population Projections

Frequency of release: Ad-hoc

Language: English

Geographical coverage: England

Geographical breakdown: Local Authority and County

  • These projections update the 2010-based projections. They are based on the latest population estimates data published on 25 September, which take into account results from the 2011 Census.    

  • London, the East and the South East are projected to grow at a faster rate over the 10 year period to 2021 than England as a whole. 

  • The average annual percentage growth rate for England remains the same as in the 2010-based subnational population projections over the 10 year period to 2021 at 0.8 per cent.

  • These projections are known to over project the number of births at a national level. This particularly affects some areas where the 2011 population estimates have higher numbers of women aged 16-44 than in the 2010 estimates. Therefore caution should be used in the application of these projections for planning purposes at the younger ages.

Subnational population projections use past trends to project forward the population to give an indication of the future population. These projections are based on the 2011 mid-year population estimates published on 25 September 2012 using recent trends as used in the 2010-based subnational population projections. They are available to 2021 for English local authorities by single year of age and sex.

Subnational population projections are used as a common framework for local area resource allocation, planning and policy making in a number of fields such as health and education.

The projections are not forecasts and do not take any account of future government policies, changing economic circumstances or the capacity of an area to accommodate the change in population. They provide an indication of the future size and age structure of the population if recent demographic trends continued. Population projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward, and particularly so for smaller geographic areas.

Data in this release have been published unrounded to facilitate onward processing.  Users are advised that they should use these data aggregated to five year age groups and rounded.

These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Other useful information

These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

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