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Statistical bulletin: Quarterly National Accounts, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 This product is designated as National Statistics

Released: 23 December 2015 Download PDF

Main points

  • UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 and Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, revised down 0.1 percentage points from the second estimate of GDP published 27 November 2015.
  • Between 2013 and 2014, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.9%, unrevised from the previous estimate and remains in line with the pre-downturn (1997 to 2007) annual average of 3.0%. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.1%, revised down 0.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
  • Estimates in this bulletin incorporate more robust annual data for 2014 and also new data for the most recent quarters. Comprehensive briefing on revisions and the latest estimates for 2014 and 2015 can be found in ‘Briefing on revisions to GDP’ in the ‘Quarterly revisions’ section of this bulletin
  • GDP in current prices increased by 0.7% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015.
  • GDP per head in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.3% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015. Between 2013 and 2014, GDP per head increased by 2.1%.
  • The households and non-profit institutions serving households saving ratio was estimated to be 4.4% in Quarter 3 2015 compared with 4.9% in Quarter 2 2015. In 2014, the saving ratio was estimated to be 5.4%.
  • Real household disposable income increased by 0.5% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015.

Understanding GDP

GDP growth is the main indicator of economic performance. There are 3 approaches used to measure GDP.

Gross value added (GVA) is the sum of goods and services produced within the economy less the value of goods and services used up in the production process (intermediate consumption).  The output approach measures GVA at a detailed industry level before aggregating to produce an estimate for the whole economy. GDP (as measured by the output approach) can then be calculated by adding taxes and subtracting subsidies (both only available at whole economy level) to this estimate of total GVA (more information on creating the preliminary estimate of GDP is available on our methods and sources page).

The income approach measures income generated by production in the form of gross operating surplus (profits), compensation of employees (income from employment) and mixed income (self-employment income) for the whole economy.

The expenditure approach is the sum of all final expenditures within the economy, that is, all expenditure on goods and services that are not used up or transformed in the production process, that is, final consumption (not intermediate) for the whole economy.

The third estimate of GDP is based on revised output data, together with updated data from expenditure and income components. In the Quarterly National Accounts, the output GVA and GDP estimates are balanced with the equivalent income and expenditure approaches to produce headline estimates of GVA and GDP. Further information on all 3 approaches to measuring GDP can be found in the Short Guide to National Accounts (316.8 Kb Pdf) .

All data in this bulletin are seasonally adjusted estimates and have had the effect of price changes removed (in other words, the data are deflated), with the exception of income data which are only available in current prices.

Growth for GDP and its components is given between different periods. Latest year-on-previous-year gives the annual growth between one calendar year and the previous. Latest quarter-on-previous-quarter growth gives growth between one quarter and the quarter immediately before it. Latest quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year shows the growth between one quarter and the same quarter a year ago.

In line with national accounts revisions policy, the earliest period open for revision in this release is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

About the Quarterly National Accounts

The Quarterly National Accounts are typically published around 90 days after the end of the quarter. At this stage the data content of this estimate from the output measure of GDP has risen to around 91% of the total required for the final output based estimate. There is also around 90% data content available to produce estimates of GDP from the expenditure approach and around 70% data content from the income approach.

The quality of the GDP estimate

Revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. The estimate is subject to revisions as more data become available, but between the preliminary and third estimates of GDP, revisions are typically small (around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points), with the frequency of upward and downward revisions broadly equal.

All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical uncertainty and for many well-established statistics we measure and publish the sampling error and non-sampling error associated with the estimate, using this as an indicator of accuracy. Since sampling is typically done to determine the characteristics of a whole population, the difference between the sample and population values is considered a sampling error. Non-sampling errors are a result of deviations from the true value that are not a function of the sample chosen, including various systematic errors and any other errors that are not due to sampling. The estimate of GDP, however, is currently constructed from a wide variety of data sources, some of which are not based on random samples or do not have published sampling and non-sampling errors available and as such it is very difficult to measure both error aspects and their impact on GDP. While development work continues in this area, like all other G7 national statistical institutes, we don't publish a measure of the sampling error/non-sampling error associated with GDP.

Table 1: Economic indicators and GDP per head for the UK

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

GDP
  Household saving ratio Real household disposable income Current market prices Chained volume measure GDP per head
  % %1 %1 %1 %1
Seasonally  adjusted          
Q3 2013 6.7 0.2 1.9 0.9 0.7
Q4 2013 5.3 -1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5
Q1 2014 5.7 -0.7 1.2 0.6 0.4
Q2 2014 5.6 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.6
Q3 2014 5.1 -0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5
Q4 2014 5.3 2.0 0.2 0.7 0.5
Q1 2015 4.4 -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2
Q2 2015 4.9 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.4
Q3 2015 4.4 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.3
 

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Percentage change on previous quarter
  2. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec )

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Historical context

As seen in Figure 1, GDP in the UK grew steadily during the 2000s until a financial market shock affected UK and global economic growth in 2008 and 2009. Economic growth resumed towards the end of 2009, but generally at a slower rate than the period prior to 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, GDP decreased by 6.1%.

Figure 1: Quarterly growth and levels of UK GDP, table A2

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2003 to Quarter 3 (Jul to Sep) 2015

Figure 1: Quarterly growth and levels of UK GDP, table A2
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)
  2. Please click on the image to view a larger version

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This can be compared with previous economic downturns in the early 1980s and early 1990s, which saw lower levels of impact on GDP. In the early 1990s downturn, GDP decreased by 2.2% from the peak in Quarter 2 1990 to the trough in Quarter 3 1991. In the early 1980s downturn, GDP decreased by 5.6% from the peak in Quarter 2 1979 to the trough in Quarter 1 1981.

From Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2009, growth continued to be erratic, particularly between 2010 and 2012 with 2 quarters recording negative growth. This 2-year period coincided with special events (for example severe winter weather in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2010 and the Diamond Jubilee in Quarter 2 2012) that are likely to have affected growth both adversely and positively. Since 2013, GDP has grown steadily, with the economy exceeding pre-downturn peak levels in Quarter 2 2013.

Quarter 3 2015 has shown continued strength with GDP growing by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter; by 2.1% between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, and by 2.9% between 2013 and 2014. GDP has now increased for 11 consecutive quarters, breaking a pattern of slow and erratic growth from 2009.

GDP analysed by output categories, chained volume measures, tables B1 and B2

Annex A contains output component growth rates (31 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

Three of the 4 main output industrial groupings within GDP showed increases in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, with only construction falling in this period. Within production, 3 of the 4 components increased with only 1 decrease, which still resulted in overall positive growth in total production. All components within the service industries showed increases.

Production output increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2015 compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, unrevised from the previously published estimate. Within the production sub-industries, output from mining and quarrying, including oil and gas extraction, increased by 2.6%; manufacturing (the largest component of production) decreased by 0.4% (Figure 2), and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply industries increased by 1.0%. Water supply and sewerage increased by 0.3%. 

When comparing Quarter 3 2015 with Quarter 3 2014, production output increased by 1.4%, revised up 0.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Mining and quarrying, including oil and gas extraction, increased by 12.2%, while water supply and sewerage increased by 5.9%. Manufacturing fell by 0.9% between these periods while the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply industries decreased by 0.5%.

Figure 2: UK manufacturing growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 2: UK manufacturing growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Construction output decreased by 1.9% in Quarter 3 2015, revised up 0.3 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Construction output increased by 1.0% between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, revised up 1.1 percentage points from the previously published estimate.

The service industries increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015 (Figure 3), revised down 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive growth. This follows a 0.5% increase in Quarter 2 2015.

Figure 3: UK services growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 3: UK services growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Output of the distribution, hotels and restaurants industries increased by 0.9% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 1.0% increase in Quarter 2 2015. The increase in the latest quarter was largely due to retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles.

Output of the transport, storage and communication industries increased by 1.0% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 1.1% increase in Quarter 2 2015. The largest contributor to the increase was computer programming, consultancy and related activities.

Business services and finance industries’ output increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 0.5% increase in Quarter 2 2015. The largest contributors to the increase were services to buildings and landscape activities and real estate activities.

Output of government and other services increased by 0.2% in Quarter 3 2015, after increasing by 0.1% in Quarter 2 2015. In the latest quarter the largest upward contribution came from human health activities.

Further detail on the service industries’ lower level components can be found in the Index of Services statistical bulletin published on 23 December 2015.

Gross value added (GVA) excluding oil and gas extraction increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 2015 following a 0.4% increase in Quarter 2 2015. 

Figure 4 shows the path of GDP and its headline industries (this excludes agriculture, and includes manufacturing which is a sub-component of production) relative to their level of output achieved in Quarter 1 2008.

Figure 4: UK GDP output components growth, quarter-on-quarter, indexed from Quarter 1 2008 = 100

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 4: UK GDP output components growth, quarter-on-quarter, indexed from Quarter 1 2008 = 100
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

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In the decade prior to the downturn, the service industries grew steadily, while production output was broadly flat over the same period. Construction activity grew strongly in the early part of the decade, and although there was a temporary decline in the mid-2000s - this was reversed by the end of 2007.

Industries have shown differing trends following the recent economic downturn. The construction, manufacturing, and production industries were more acutely affected by the deterioration in economic conditions, with output falling from peak to trough by 17.1%, 12.3% and 10.6% respectively. In contrast, output in the services industry only fell by 4.1% from its peak to trough.

Production activity began to grow again in 2010, and the manufacturing and the construction industries showed particular strength, although neither industry sustained this growth. Production output fell in both 2011 and 2012, falling below levels seen at the depth of the downturn in 2009. Construction output also fell sharply in 2012, with output nearly returning to its 2009 trough levels after further contraction in Quarter 1 2013. Construction output improved throughout 2014. Although there has been widespread growth across all major components of GDP since the start of 2013, the service industry remains the largest and steadiest contributor to overall economic growth (Annex A), and is the only headline industry in which output has exceeded pre-downturn levels.

Figure 5 shows the average compound quarterly growth rate experienced over the 5 years prior to the economic downturn in 2008 to 2009, the average growth rate experienced between Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2009 and Quarter 2 2014 (5 years following the downturn), and the current quarterly growth rate observed in the most recent period (Quarter 3 2015). Compound average growth is the rate at which a series would have increased or decreased if it had grown or fallen at a steady rate over a number of periods. This allows the composition of growth in the recent economic recovery to be compared to the long run average.

The UK experienced slightly slower average compound GDP growth in the 5 years following the economic downturn compared with the 5 years prior; this is also true of the services industry. Figure 5 shows that in Quarter 3 2015 only the production industries outperformed the post-downturn average rate of growth, but manufacturing and construction have been relatively weak falling by 0.4% and 1.9% respectively. In Quarter 3 2015 the transport, storage and communication industries have shown particular strength when compared to services 5 year average, prior and post downturn.

It should be noted that the current quarterly growth rate (the third column for each industry section in Figure 5), is based on only 1 data point. Consequently users should use caution when making direct comparisons with the long run averages.

Figure 5: UK GDP quarterly average compound growth by industry grouping before and after the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn

2003 to 2007 and 2009 to 2014

Figure 5: UK GDP quarterly average compound growth by industry grouping before and after the 2008 to 2009 economic downturn
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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GDP analysed by expenditure categories, chained volume measures, table C2

Annex B contains expenditure component growth rates (27 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

More information on the revisions to the expenditure components within this section can be found in "Briefing on revisions to GDP" in the "Quarterly revisions" section of this bulletin.

Gross domestic expenditure (the sum of all expenditure by UK residents on goods and services that are not used up or transformed in a productive process) increased by 1.4% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015. Annually, between 2013 and 2014 gross domestic expenditure increased by 3.2%.

Household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE) increased by 0.9% in Quarter 3 2015, and has increased for 9 consecutive quarters (Figure 6). The largest contribution to the increase in household final consumption expenditure in Quarter 3 2015 came from transport. When compared with the same quarter a year ago, HHFCE has been rising each quarter since Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2011, and was 3.0% higher in Quarter 3 2015 than in the same period a year ago. Between 2013 and 2014, HHFCE increased by 2.6%.

Figure 6: UK household final consumption expenditure growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 6: UK household final consumption expenditure growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 ( July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Note that in the quarters of 2013 only, “National” HHFCE chained volume measure data is not the sum of its components.

Figure 7 shows the contribution of different categories of goods and services to the growth in UK household domestic expenditure, quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year. The positive consumption growth since Quarter 4 2011 is shown to have been broad-based across both goods and services. While durable and semi durable goods have been the predominant driver of growth in recent periods, there has also been a resumption to growth of non durables goods (which include items which can only be consumed or used once; food products are a good example of these) in the last 3 quarters. This component of expenditure showed positive growth in Quarter 2 and Quarter 3 of 2015 increasing by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.

Figure 7: Contribution to UK household expenditure growth, quarter-on-same-quarter previous year

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 7: Contribution to UK household expenditure growth, quarter-on-same-quarter previous year
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)
  2. Please click on the image to view a larger version

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Government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 1.0% increase in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.8%. Between 2013 and 2014, government final consumption expenditure increased by 2.5%.

Non-profit institutions serving households’ (NPISH) final consumption expenditure fell by 1.7% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 2.6% rise in Quarter 2 2015. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, NPISH final consumption expenditure increased by 0.4%. Annually, NPISH final consumption expenditure increased by 0.9% between 2013 and 2014. 

In Quarter 3 2015, gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was estimated to have increased by 0.7% (Figure 8). Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GFCF increased by 3.4%. GFCF increased by 7.3% between 2013 and 2014. More detail on GFCF, including a breakdown of the GFCF components, can be found in the Business Investment statistical bulletin published on 23 December 2015.

Business investment was estimated to have risen by 2.2% in Quarter 3 2015 and by 5.8% between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015. Annually, business investment increased by 4.7% between 2013 and 2014. 

Figure 8: UK gross fixed capital formation growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 8: UK gross fixed capital formation growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 ( July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Including the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories increased by £0.7 billion in Quarter 3 2015, following a fall of £1.5 billion in Quarter 2 2015. Excluding the alignment adjustment, the level of inventories was unchanged (falling by £31 million) in Quarter 3 2015, following no change in Quarter 2 2015 (when it increased by £29 million). More information on the alignment adjustment can be found in the Balancing GDP section within the Background Notes of this release.

The trade balance deficit widened from £9.7 billion in Quarter 2 2015 to £14.1 billion in Quarter 3 2015 (Figure 9). The trade position reflects exports minus imports. Following a 2.8% increase in Quarter 2 2015, exports decreased by 0.3% in the latest quarter, while imports increased by 2.7% in Quarter 3 2015 following a 2.2% fall in Quarter 2 2015.

We previously highlighted quality concerns surrounding the volume estimates of trade in goods; as planned the volume data has been revised from Quarter 1 2014. This has introduced large revisions to exports and imports in volume terms, especially for Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 2 2015, although the trade story has not changed; there is still a narrowing of the trade in goods deficit in Quarter 2 2015. This narrowing now reflects both a rise in exports and a decrease in imports, whereas previously it was attributed to a fall in imports. The latest estimates are more in line with the current price movements.

Exports of goods fell by 2.5% in Quarter 3 2015, due mainly to an increase in chemicals, specifically organic chemicals and in fuel, specifically oil. Exports of services increased by 3.0% in Quarter 3 2015, due to an increase in insurance and other business services. In Quarter 3 2015 imports of goods increased by 3.7%, due to increases in unspecified goods and fuels. Imports of services fell by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, due to an increase in transport services.

Between 2013 and 2014, exports increased by 1.2%, with increases in exports of services and no change in exports of goods, while imports increased by 2.4%; reflecting an increase in imports of goods (partially offset by a fall in imports of services).

Figure 9: UK trade balance

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 9: UK trade balance
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Figure 10 shows a breakdown of the trade components and their contribution to GDP growth from Quarter 1 2008 to Quarter 3 2015. The series indicates that in the most recent quarter the UK trade balance has made a slight negative contribution to GDP growth, quarter on same quarter of the previous year. Export of goods rose by 8.0% when comparing Quarter 3 2014 with Quarter 3 2015, contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth, with this being largely offset by the import of goods, which increased by 6.6% in the same period, resulting in a negative 1.6 percentage points contribution to GDP growth.

Figure 10: UK net trade components contribution to GDP, quarter-on-same-quarter previous year

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 10: UK net trade components contribution to GDP, quarter-on-same-quarter previous year
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

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Figure 11 shows the quarterly contribution of the expenditure components to the growth of GDP in chained volume measures. For Quarter 3 2015, the largest positive contribution to GDP came from gross capital formation, which contributed 0.8 percentage points. Household final consumption expenditure contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP; general government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.1 percentage points. There were negative contributions to GDP of 0.1 percentage points from NPISH and from net trade, which contributed a negative 1.0 percentage points.

Figure 11: UK expenditure components percentage contribution to GDP growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2014 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 11: UK expenditure components percentage contribution to GDP growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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GDP implied deflator

Annex D contains implied deflator component growth rates (33 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

The GDP implied deflator at market prices for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 is 0.1% above the same quarter of 2014 (Figure 12). The GDP implied deflator is calculated by dividing current price (nominal) GDP by chained volume (real) GDP and multiplying by 100 to convert to an index. It is not used in the calculation of GDP; the deflators for expenditure components, which are the basis for the implied GDP deflator, are used to calculate nominal GDP, not real GDP.

Figure 12: UK GDP at market prices implied deflator,quarter-on-quarter corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 12: UK GDP at market prices implied deflator,quarter-on-quarter corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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GDP analysed by income categories at current prices, table D

Annex C contains income component growth rates (31 Kb Excel sheet) back to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014.

More information on the revisions to the income components within this section can be found in "Briefing on revisions to GDP" in the "Quarterly revisions" section of this bulletin.

GDP at current market prices increased by 0.7% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, following a 0.8% increase in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015. GDP at current market prices increased by 2.1% when compared with Quarter 3 2014. In 2014, GDP at current market prices increased by 4.7%.

Compensation of employees – which includes both wages and salaries, and pension contributions, increased by 0.6% in Quarter 3 2015, following an increase of 1.0% in Quarter 2 2015 (Figure 13). Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, compensation of employees increased by 3.8% and increased by 1.8% between 2013 and 2014.

Figure 13: UK compensation of employees growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 13: UK compensation of employees growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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The gross operating surplus of corporations (effectively the profits of companies operating within the UK), including the alignment adjustment, increased by 2.4% in Quarter 3 2015 compared with the previous quarter; this follows a fall of 0.8% in Quarter 2 2015 (Figure 14). Between 2013 and 2014 the gross operating surplus of corporations increased by 7.5%. More information on the alignment adjustment can be found in the Balancing GDP section within the Background Notes of this release.

Figure 14: UK gross operating surplus of corporations' growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 14: UK gross operating surplus of corporations' growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Taxes less subsidies on products and production fell by 0.1% in Quarter 3 2015, following an increase of 3.0% in Quarter 2 2015. Between 2013 and 2014 taxes less subsidies on products and production increased by 4.9%.

Figure 15 shows the contribution made by income components to current price GDP. In Quarter 3 2015, there were positive contributions to GDP from gross operating surplus of corporations which contributed 0.5 percentage points, compensation of employees which contributed 0.3 percentage points and other income which contributed 0.1 percentage points. Taxes on products and production less subsidies made a flat contribution to GDP in the latest quarter.

Figure 15: Income components percentage contribution to UK GDP growth, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2014 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 15: Income components percentage contribution to UK GDP growth, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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GDP per head, table P

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, GDP per head increased by 0.3% compared with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, unrevised from the previously published estimate. GDP per head is now 0.3% above its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008, having surpassed it in Quarter 2 2015, one quarter later than previously estimated. Headline GDP exceeded the level of its pre-downturn peak in Quarter 2 2013 and is now 6.1% above its pre-downturn peak (Figure 16).

Figure 16: Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for the UK, indexed from Q1 2008 = 100

Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 16: Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for the UK, indexed from Q1 2008 = 100
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)
  2. Please click on the image to view a larger version

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Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GDP per head increased by 1.3%, revised down 0.4 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Between 2013 and 2014, GDP per head increased by 2.1%, revised down 0.1 percentage points from the previously published estimate.

GDP per head is calculated by dividing GDP in chained volume measures by the latest population estimates and projections. The population estimates used in this release are those published on 25 June 2015 and the population projections used are those published 29 October 2015.

Sector Accounts, tables I, J1, J2, J3, K1 and K2

Summary

Annually for 2014, the central government, local government, financial corporations and the households and non-profit institutions serving households sectors were net borrowers. Public corporations, private non-financial corporations and the rest of the world sectors were net lenders.

In 2015 Quarter 3 (July to Sept), the central government, public corporations and households and non-profit institutions serving households sectors were net borrowers. The local government, financial corporations, private non-financial corporations and rest of the world sectors were net lenders (Figure 17).

Figure 17: UK net lending(+)/ net borrowing (-) by sector

Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 17: UK net lending(+)/ net borrowing (-) by sector
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Please click on the image to view a larger version

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Compared with the previous year all sectors remain unchanged.

Compared with the previous quarter, there has been a switch to net lending in the local government and financial corporation’s sector. All other sectors remain unchanged.

Table I has further detail.

The household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector (tables J1, J2 and J3)

Saving ratio:

Annually for 2014 the saving ratio was 5.4%, compared with 6.3% in 2013.

The saving ratio in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 was 4.4%, compared with 4.9% in the previous quarter (Figure 18).

Figure 18: UK household and NPISH saving ratio

Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 18: UK household and NPISH saving ratio
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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The decrease in the saving ratio in 2014 reflects rises in consumption expenditure and taxes on income and wealth, which are partially offset by rises in wages and salaries and gross operating surplus and mixed income.

This fall in the latest quarter reflects a rise in final consumption expenditure and taxes on income and wealth partially offset by increased wages and salaries. Figure 19 shows the main components contributing to the quarterly saving ratio movement.

Figure 19: UK main household and NPISH saving ratio components

Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 19: UK main household and NPISH saving ratio components
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)
  2. Please click on the image to view a larger version

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What is the saving ratio?

The saving ratio estimates the amount of money households and NPISH have available to save (known as gross saving) as a percentage of their total disposable income (known as total available resources). Both can be found in table J3 of this release.

Gross saving estimates the difference between households’ and NPISH total available resources (mainly wages received, revenue of the self-employed, social benefits and net income such as interest on savings and dividends from shares, but excluding taxes on income and wealth) and their current consumption (expenditure on goods and services).

All of the components that make up gross saving and total available resources, and in fact all sector accounts data apart from real household disposable income (RHDI), are estimated in current prices (CP). These are sometimes known as nominal prices, meaning that they include the effects of price changes.

The saving ratio is published in both non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) and seasonally adjusted (SA) formats with the latter removing seasonal effects to allow comparisons over time. However, the saving ratio can be volatile and is sensitive to even relatively small movements to its components, particularly on a quarterly basis. This is because saving is a small difference between 2 numbers. It is therefore often revised at successive publications when new or updated data are included.

Real household and NPISH disposable income

For the year 2014, real household and NPISH disposable income increased by 0.6% following a fall of 0.7% in 2013. This reflects an increase of 2.3% in nominal gross disposable income, offset by a 1.6% rise in the household and NPISH final consumption deflator. This increase in nominal gross disposable income was predominantly due to a rise in wages and salaries together with increased gross operating surplus and mixed income, partially offset by increased taxes on income and wealth.

The level of real household and NPISH disposable income increased by 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, following an increase of 1.9% in the previous quarter (Figure 20).

Figure 20: UK real household and NPISH disposable income, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 20: UK real household and NPISH disposable income, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)
  2. Please click on the image to view a larger version

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The rise in the latest quarter reflects a 0.7% rise in the nominal gross disposable income with a 0.2% increase in the household and NPISH final consumption deflator. The rise in nominal gross disposable income was due to a rise in wages and salaries partially offset by rises in taxes on income and wealth.

Figure 21 shows the main components contributing to the quarterly movement of gross disposable income.  

Figure 21: UK main gross disposable income components, quarter-on-quarter growth

Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2011 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 21: UK main gross disposable income components, quarter-on-quarter growth
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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What is real household and NPISH disposable income?

There are 2 measures of household and NPISH income, in real terms or in current prices (or nominal as it is often called), and both of these time series can be found in table J2 of this release.

Gross household and NPISH disposable income (GDI) is the estimate of the total amount of money from income that households and NPISH have available from wages received, revenue of the self-employed, social benefits and net income (such as interest on savings and dividends from shares) less taxes on income and wealth. All the components that make up GDI are estimated in current prices.

However, by adjusting GDI to remove the effects of inflation, we are able to estimate another useful measure of disposable income called real disposable income. This is a measure of real purchasing power of household and NPISH incomes, in terms of the physical quantity of goods and services they would be able to purchase. We use the household and NPISH expenditure deflator (which can be found in table J2 of this release) to remove the effects of price inflation.


Private non-financial corporations’ sector (tables K1 and K2)

For the year 2014, net lending was £28.6 billion following net lending of £23.8 billion in 2013. This increase was due to a rise in gross operating surplus partially offset by a fall in net property income and a rise in gross capital formation.

Net lending of private non-financial corporations’ was £12.4 billion in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, following net lending of £6.2 billion in the previous quarter. This increase in net lending in the latest quarter was due to a rise in gross operating surplus and net property income.

International comparisons for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

The estimates quoted in this international comparison section are the latest available estimates published by the respective bodies (referenced) at the time of preparation of this statistical bulletin and may subsequently have been revised.

All areas included within our international comparison, saw positive growth when comparing Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 with Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 (Figure 22). The European Union (EU28) grew by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2015, marking 10 consecutive quarters of positive growth (Table 2). In the same period, the eurozone (EA19) also expanded by 0.3%. When comparing Quarter 3 2014 with Quarter 3 2015, EA19 grew by 1.6 % whilst the EU28 expanded by 1.9% (Figure 23).

Germany saw its GDP increase by 0.3% between Quarter 2 2015 and Quarter 3 2015, following a 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. GDP for France increased by 0.3% in the same period, following no growth in Quarter 2 2015.

In the third quarter of 2015 the USA’s economy increased by 0.5%. Between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, GDP for the USA increased by 2.1%. GDP for Japan increased by 0.3% in Quarter 3 2015, following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter, although between Quarter 3 2014 and Quarter 3 2015, Japan’s economy grew by 1.7%.

GDP for the Group of Seven (G7) countries increased by 0.4% in Quarter 3 2015, following a 0.6% increase in the previous quarter. When comparing Quarter 3 2014 with Quarter 3 2015, G7 GDP increased by 1.9% and is now 6.1% above its pre-recession peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008.

Figure 24 shows GDP for the UK, EU, USA and Japan indexed to Quarter 1 2008 (the pre-downturn peak in the UK) to allow comparison of each since that period.

More detailed information on these estimates can be found on the Eurostat website. Information on the estimates for the USA can be found on the Bureau of Economic Analysis website; information on the estimates for Japan can be found on the Japanese Cabinet Office website while information for the G7 countries can be found on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s website.

Table 2: International GDP quarterly growth rate comparisons for selected economic areas, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015, Chained volume, seasonally adjusted

Percentage growth rates
  EU281 EA191 France Germany UK Japan USA G7
Q1 2013 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.4
Q2 2013  0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5
Q3 2013 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6
Q4 2013 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.9 0.6
                 
Q1 2014 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.7 0.6 1.2 -0.2 0.2
Q2 2014 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 -1.9 1.1 0.4
Q3 2014 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.7 -0.7 1.1 0.5
Q4 2014 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5
                 
Q1 2015 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.4
Q2 2015 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.6
Q3 2015 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. EU28 is the European Union
  2. EA19 is the eurozone
  3. G7 is the Group of Seven countries
  4. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Figure 22: International GDP growth rates, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2003 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 22: International GDP growth rates, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

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Figure 23: International GDP growth rates, quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2003 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 23: International GDP growth rates, quarter-on-corresponding-quarter-of-previous-year
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

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Figure 24: International GDP growth rates, quarter-on-quarter

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2008 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 24: International GDP growth rates, quarter-on-quarter
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)

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Quarterly revisions

GDP and components, previously published on 27 November 2015

Figure 25 shows quarterly revisions between latest and previously published estimates of GDP. Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 is the earliest period open for revision in this release.

Figure 25: UK GDP, quarter-on-quarter growth

Quarter 1(Jan to Mar) 2012 to Quarter 3 (July to Sep) 2015

Figure 25: UK GDP, quarter-on-quarter growth
Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Briefing on revisions to GDP

The 2014 picture

Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 2.9% in 2014 compared with 2013, unrevised from the previously published estimate. However there are small revisions to GDP growth rates in Quarter 2 (Apr to June), Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014. There are also revisions to the more detailed components of GDP which are mainly due to, as planned, incorporating more robust annual data into the estimates. These are discussed in detail in the following sections.

Although the annual GDP growth rate is unrevised, the latest estimates present a more diverged picture between the different measurement approaches for GDP; expenditure, income, and output (Table L details the annual growth rates for the 3 separate approaches).

Since 2014 was first published we have received little new data for the output measure apart from some late survey returns but, in the last few months, the primary source of data information has been for the expenditure measure (further detail of the data sources can be found in ‘Impact of the 2014 annual benchmarks‘ section). Although the annual expenditure measure hasn’t been revised much, the new data sources are likely to make this estimate a more reliable annual estimate than output or Income until the ‘final’ data for all 3 approaches is received for Supply-Use balancing.

Impact of the 2014 annual benchmarks

This release includes the processing and GDP balancing of the following annual benchmarks:

  1. local Government Final Outturn data for England and Wales for the financial year 2014/15

  2. Annual International Trade in Services Survey

  3. Financial Inquiries Survey

  4. Regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension funds

  5. Healthcare within Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GGFCE) volume measure

Unfortunately, it has not been possible to include the Foreign Direct Investment 2014 annual benchmark within the Sector and Financial Accounts and Balance of Payments. This was first announced in the Foreign Direct Investment release.

Also please note the International Trade in Services benchmark did not feed in to the UK Trade figures published on 10 December and therefore Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2015 is the first opportunity to see the impact of the new data on UK trade.

The impact from the annual benchmarks on the 2014 dataset are presented for each of the affected components of output, expenditure, and income below.

Annual benchmark data changes to output components

The output measure of GDP is impacted by incorporating new regulators and administrative data for insurance corporations and pensions, as well new healthcare data. In addition to the usual factors, revisions to construction in this round arise from an improved approach to the treatment of outliers and a review of seasonal adjustment factors. The revisions to the output measure of GDP and its components are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Revisions [1] to UK GDP output and its components

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

Period GDP(O)2 Services Production Construction Agriculture
% revision % revision % revision % revision % revision
Q1 2014 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q2 2014 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0
Q3 2014 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q4 2014 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Percentage change to 1 demical place
  2. Contributions to revisions are to output gross value added and therefore may not sum to the percentage change in GDP.
  3. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)  
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)  
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)  
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)  

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The construction sector made a strong negative contribution to the revision of the output measure of GDP in Quarter 2 2014 and a more limited positive contribution to the revisions in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 and Quarter 3 2014. More information on this methodological change can be found in Output in the Construction Industry - October 2015 and New Orders Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015.

Within the services sector, the revision to healthcare data has had a particularly strong upward impact in Quarter 1 2014. The revision from benchmarking to the new regulators and administrative data for insurance corporations and pensions, whilst having its most significant impact in Quarter 4 2014, did not lead to a change to the revision contribution of the services sector to 1 decimal place (dp). In implementing these benchmarks the revised quarterly path needs to be constrained to the new annual level; however, the impact of the revised annual estimate does not have to be equally apportioned across the 4 quarters as statistical consideration has to be given to the pre-existing quarterly path and the impact of seasonal adjustment.

Annual benchmark data changes to expenditure components

Trade in services (TiS): Revisions to 2014 are mainly due to new, more robust (benchmark), data from the annual International Trade in Services Survey (ITIS) replacing earlier estimates from the smaller quarterly ITIS surveys. Additionally new annual Financial Inquiries data and new regulatory data have revised insurance services. Annual estimates for both exports and imports, chained volume measures, have been revised up in 2014; exports by £0.2 billion and imports by £0.5 billion. Within exports, upward revisions from new ITIS estimates have been offset by downwards revisions from the new annual data. Following on from this, the revised quarterly path needs to be constrained to the new annual level. The impact of the revised annual estimate does not have to be equally apportioned across the 4 quarters as statistical consideration has to be given to the pre-existing quarterly path and the impact of seasonal adjustment. This is why, although the overall annual revision may be upwards, there can still be downwards revisions to the quarterly growth rates.

For the quarterly estimates, revisions to both exports and imports are negative in Quarter 1 and Quarter 2 and positive in Quarter 3 and Quarter 4. A summary of the revisions is presented in Table 4.

Table 4: Summary of revisions to UK Trade in Services, current prices (CP) and chained volume measures (CVM) due to new benchmark data from Annual ITIS

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

£ million
Period Total revision to imports of services CP Total revision to imports of services CVM Total revision to exports of services CP Total revision to exports  of services CVM
Q1 2014 -560 -907 -856 -585
Q2 2014 -561 -453 -33 -235
Q3 2014 535 554 478 371
Q4 2014 915 1266 341 675

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)  
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)  
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)  
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)  

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General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GGFCE): Within the GGFCE composition, the Local Government (LG) upward revisions to current price data between Quarter 2 2014 and Quarter 1 2015 are largely driven by incorporating Local Government Final Outturn data for England and for Wales for the financial year 2014/15, replacing earlier forecasts based on budget data. The impact of incorporating these data differs across the Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG) categories.

For the LG and Central Government (CG) dataset, this is the first time a benchmark has been applied to the 2014 healthcare volume measure. A summary of the revisions to GGFCE and components is presented in Table 5.

Table 5: Summary of revisions to UK General Government Final Consumption (GGFCE), the Local Government (LG) revisions due to new Local Government final outturn data for England and Wales for the financial year 2014/15, current prices (CP) and the revisions, due to new 2014 healthcare data, chained volume measures (CVM)

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

£ millions
Period Total revision to GGFCE, CP LG revision due to final outturn data Total revision to GGFCE, CVM CG revision due to healthcare data
Q1 2014 534 58 971 740
Q2 2014 205 186 468 691
Q3 2014 169 189 305 764
Q4 2014 319 201 323 811
Q1 2015 -76 236 -163 751

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)  
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)  
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)  
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)  

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Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE): Revisions to 2014 data are mainly due to new data from the Living Costs and Food (LCF) Survey, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and the International Passenger Survey (IPS). New regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension funds is also a contributing factor to the revisions presented in Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) 12 Miscellaneous category. Revisions to this COICOP are driven by 12.5 Insurance, mainly in 12.5.1 Life Insurance, and 12.6.2 Financial Services Other than FISIM. A summary of revisions to HHFCE and the contribution to revisions from the Miscellaneous category are presented in Table 6:

Table 6: Summary of revisions to UK Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HHFCE) due to new benchmark data from regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension fund for COICOP 12

Miscellaneous, chained volume measures, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

£ million
Period Total revision to HHFCE Total domestic revision Of which revision to 12 Miscellaneous Total net tourism revision
Q1 2014 -322 -251 -547 -71
Q2 2014 39 177 -131 -138
Q3 2014 -453 -296 -451 -157
Q4 2014 -592 -541 -729 -51

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)  
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)  
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)  
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)  

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Annual benchmark data changes to income components

Financial Corporations (FinCos): Revisions to 2014 data are mainly due to new data from the annual Financial Inquiries (FI) Survey replacing earlier estimates from the smaller quarterly financial surveys, with the headline FinCos series being revised down by £2.1 billion in 2014. As noted in the earlier briefing on TiS, the revised quarterly path needs to be constrained to the new annual level. The impact of the revised annual estimate does not have to be equally apportioned across the 4 quarters as statistical consideration has to be given to the pre-existing quarterly path and the impact of seasonal adjustment. These new data were the main reason for the negative revision in Quarter 4 2014 (Table 7).

Table 7: Summary of revisions to UK Financial Corporations, current prices due to new benchmark data from Financial Inquiries (FI) Survey

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

£ million
Period Total revision to FinCos due to new financial inquiries data
Q1 2014 -367
Q2 2014 -740
Q3 2014 888
Q4 2014 -1831

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)  
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)  
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)  
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)  

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The driver of the downward revisions to Quarter 1 2014, Quarter 2 2014 and Quarter 4 2014 is profits, which is being driven by data revisions in life insurance and other financial intermediaries. In both instances, this is due to the receipt of the new annual Financial Inquiries data for 2014.

Compensation of Employees (CoE): Revisions to CoE (D.1) were downward in all quarters with an overall annual downward revision of £4.3 billion to 2014. For all quarters of 2014 revisions were primarily due to downward revisions to adjusted employers social contributions (D.12). The largest contributor to the D.12 downward revisions was D.1211 Funded data which are sourced from the regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension funds. A summary of the revisions to CoE is presented in Table 8.

Table 8: Summary of revisions to UK Compensation of Employees (CoE) due to new benchmark data from the regulatory and administrative data for insurance corporations and pension fund for employers' social contributions (D.12)

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

£ million
Period Total revision to CoE  Total employers social contributions revision (D.12) 
Q1 2014 -677 -575
Q2 2014 -1042 -977
Q3 2014 -1086 -587
Q4 2014 -1490 -1227

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 

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The latest quarterly headline picture

Table 9 shows quarterly revisions between latest and previously published estimates of GDP. The periods open for revision in this release are Quarter 1 2014 onwards. Growth rates and revisions have, as usual, been presented to 1dp. Users may, however, find it useful to note that some revisions have just crossed the 1dp threshold. For example, the Q2 2015 revision to 1dp presents a 0.2 percentage point downward revision which is 0.11 percentage points to 2dp.

Table 9: Revisions to quarter-on-quarter percentage change growth rates for UK GDP

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

£ million
Period Quarter-on-quarter previously published  Quarter-on-quarter latest estimate Total quarter-on-quarter revision 
% growth % growth % growth
Q1 2014 0.6 0.6 0.0
Q2 2014 0.9 0.8 -0.1
Q3 2014 0.6 0.7 0.1
Q4 2014 0.8 0.7 -0.1
Q1 2015 0.4 0.4 0.0
Q2 2015 0.7 0.5 -0.2
Q3 2015 0.5 0.4 -0.1
 

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 

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In addition to the annual benchmarks which, as discussed above, contribute to the quarterly revisions there are also revisions in this release due to the replacement of forecasts with actual survey or external source data and new seasonally adjustment factors. For a fuller picture, the revisions to contributions to GDP growth are presented in Table 10.

Table 10: Revisions to contributions to UK GDP growth, quarter-on-quarter, current period

Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015, current and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

Period Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
% revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions
Household final consumption
expenditure -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-profit institutions serving households              
final consumption expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
General government final consumption expenditure 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1
Gross capital formation -0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.6 -0.4
Exports -0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 -0.4
Imports -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 0.1 -0.8
Net trade 0.4 -0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.5
GDP at market prices, chained volume measure 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1
 
Compensation of employees -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Gross operating surplus of corporations -0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.7
Other income 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taxes less subsidies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1
GDP at market prices, current prices -0.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.1
 

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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Revisions to headline GDP quarter-on-quarter growth, chained volume measures

GDP for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2014 was unrevised at 0.6%. The downward revision to HHFCE and Gross Capital Formation were offset by upward revision contributions from Net trade and GGFCE.

GDP for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2014 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%. Within the expenditure components the largest contributor to the downward revision was Net Trade although this was almost entirely offset by an upward revision contribution from Gross Capital Formation. Within the income components, Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations was the largest contributor to the revision with Financial Corporations accounting heavily for this downward revision (see above for impact of annual benchmarks).

GDP for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2014 was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7%. Revisions to the expenditure components were broad-based with a notable positive contribution from Net Trade. Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations was again the largest contributor to the revisions with Financial Corporations accounting heavily for this upward revision – which is reflected in the annual benchmark impact discussed earlier.

GDP for Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% with income components contributing most to the revision. Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations was the largest contributor to the revision with Financial Corporations accounting heavily for this downward revision.

GDP for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 was unrevised at 0.4%.

GDP for Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 0.5% with expenditure components contributing most to the revision. Gross Capital Formation was the largest contributor to the revision with Changes in Inventories accounting heavily for this downward revision.

In Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 the data information content for the output approach is more complete than the expenditure, and income approaches and therefore the expenditure and income growth rates are aligned to the output measure – with the quarterly imbalance being absorbed in the alignment adjustments (the difference between output and expenditure, and output and income on a quarterly basis). Therefore the briefing on this quarter focuses on the output approach.

The revisions to contributions to GDP Quarter 3 2015 growth for the output components are presented in Table 11.

Table 11: Revisions to contributions to UK GDP Q3 (July to Sept) 2015 for the output components

Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

Quarter-on-quarter contribution to growth current period Q3 2015
% revision
Agriculture, forestry and fishing 0.0
Total production 0.0
 
Total services -0.1
Distribution hotels and restaurants 0.0
Transport storage and communication 0.0
Business services and finance -0.1
Government and other services 0.0
Construction 0.0
 
Gross Value Added by category of output,  
chained volume measure -0.1

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)

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GDP for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%. This is due to downward revisions for the services industries within the output approach to measuring GDP from the business services and finance industries – which was revised down 0.4 percentage points to 0.6%. The largest contributors to the revision were; financial services, insurance, and pensions fund industries (64-66). These revisions were mainly due to real data replacing forecasts and downward revisions to insurance survey data.

Table 12 shows revisions to the quarter–on-same-quarter a year ago growth for GDP.

Table 12: Revisions to quarter-on-same-quarter-a-year-ago percentage change growths for UK GDP

Quarter 3 (Jul to Sept) 2015, Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

Quarter-on-same-quarter-a- year-ago previously published Quarter-on-same-quarter-a-year- ago latest estimate Total quarter-on-same-quarter-a- year-ago revision
%  growth %  growth %  growth
Q1 2014 2.8 2.8 0.0
Q2 2014 3.1 3.0 -0.1
Q3 2014 2.9 2.8 -0.1
Q4 2014 3.0 2.8 -0.2
Q1 2015 2.7 2.5 -0.2
Q2 2015 2.4 2.3 -0.1
Q3 2015 2.3 2.1 -0.2
 

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 

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The revisions for the quarter-on-same-quarter a year ago growths for GDP in 2015 are due to revisions in both 2015 and 2014, while the revisions for the quarter-on-same-quarter a year ago growths for GDP in 2014 are due to revisions in 2014, as 2013 has been unrevised in this release. The revisions to contributions to GDP growth are presented in Table 13.

Table 13: Revisions to contributions to UK GDP growth, quarter-on-same-quarter-a-year-ago

Current prices and chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted, Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

Quarter-on-same-quarter -a-year-ago revisions to contributions to growth, expenditure components, current period Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
revision % % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions % revisions
Household final consumption
expenditure -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Non-profit institutions serving households              
final consumption expenditure 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
General government final consumption expenditure 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.1
Gross capital formation -0.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.2 -0.4
Exports -0.2 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.3
Imports -0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.1
Net trade 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -1.1 -0.2 0.2
GDP at market prices, chained volume measure 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
 
quarter-on-same-quarter -a-year-ago revisions to contributions to growth, income components, current period  
 
Compensation of employees -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Gross operating surplus of corporations -0.1 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.9 -0.5
Other income 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Taxes less subsidies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
GDP at market prices, current prices -0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -1.3

Table source: Office for National Statistics

Table notes:

  1. Q1 is Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar)
    Q2 is Quarter 2 (Apr to June)
    Q3 is Quarter 3 (July to Sept)
    Q4 is Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec)

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The quarter-on-same-quarter a year ago revisions, to the chained volume measure, are present in all quarters expect Quarter 1 2014. Revisions are largest in Quarter 4 2014, Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 3 2015 – with all being revised down by 0.2 percentage points.

Detailed revisions for the 3 GDP approaches:

Sector accounts revisions, previously published 30 September 2015






 

Background notes

  1. What do you think?

    We would welcome your feedback on this publication. If you would like to get in touch please contact us via email: gdp@ons.gsi.gov.uk

  2. Release policy

    This release includes data available up to 9 December 2015. Data are consistent with that within the Index of Production statistical bulletin - published on 8 December 2015 and the current price trade in goods data within the UK Trade statistical bulletin - published on 10 December 2015.

  3. Construction industry

    We have reviewed the way we calculate our construction statistics, as part of the process of re-designating them as National Statistics. This included investigating our nominal (current price) data and comparing it with other data sources. An element which stood out was the level of construction output in the first 4 months of the year (January, February, March and April).

    A close investigation of the sampling methods used during the production of the figures for the output in the construction industry release showed that the parameters used in the treatment of outliers resulted in more outliers being detected in the first quarter than at any other point. In reviewing this, we found that this outlier treatment could be improved. This led to revisions across these 4 months in the estimates published by us on 11 December 2015 in the ‘Output in the Construction Industry, October 2015 and New Orders Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015’ release and these revisions are also included in this release. Additionally, we incorporated the results of a seasonal adjustment review which also contributed to revisions in the data.

  4. Release content and context

    This release is the third estimate of GDP. Data content for each successive release of GDP varies according to availability.

    The Preliminary Estimate of GDP is based on output data alone. These are based on survey estimates for the first 2 months of the quarter with estimates for the third month of the quarter based on forecasts using early returns from businesses. Other (non-survey based) data used in the compilation of the output approach are also based on forecasts.

    For the Second Estimate of GDP output estimates, based on survey data, are available for all 3 months of the quarter, in addition to other significant data sources. Estimates of the expenditure and income approaches to measuring GDP are also available in this release based on a combination of limited survey data, other data sources and forecasts.

    For the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) release, output survey data are available for all 3 months of the quarter, along with most other data sources. For the expenditure and income approaches to measuring GDP, more extensive survey data are available, in addition to other data sources and a more limited use of forecasts.

    After this release, the current quarter will be subject to revision in accordance with National Accounts revisions policy as further data, annual benchmarks and methodological improvements are implemented. More information on the annual data and benchmarks included in this release can be found in the Quarterly Revisions section of this bulletin.

    For more information on the different estimates of GDP, we have produced a short guide to the UK National Accounts (316.8 Kb Pdf) which gives more information on the principles of national accounting and the various publications available.

  5. National Statistics Quality Review

    In line with the recently published National Statistics Quality Review (NSQR): Review of National Accounts and Balance of Payments, we have published a response, which can be found on our website.

  6. National Accounts Work Plan 2015 to 2018

    On 13 July 2015 users of national accounts were invited to respond to an informal consultation on the national accounts work plan which lays out a proposed set of priorities for the next 3 years. This consultation on the national accounts medium-term work plan (covering the period to 2018) closed on 25 September 2015. It followed a previous work plan for national accounts and related outputs following the consultation held in 2013.

    The final report of the national accounts medium-term work plan was published on our website 27 November 2015.

  7. Special Events

    We maintain a list of candidate special events in the Special Events Calendar. Special events are events that are identifiable; they do not recur on a regular cycle (so are not targeted by seasonal adjustment) and have at least the potential to have an impact on statistics. As explained in our Special Events policy, it is not possible to separate the effects of special events from other changes in the series.

  8. Continuous improvement of GDP: sources, methods and communication

    The UK Statistics Authority published 2 new assessment reports on the Annual and Quarterly National Accounts and Supply and Use Tables and Input-Output Tables on 25 February 2015.

    In order to implement improvements reflected in the European System of Accounts 2010 (ESA2010), we will introduce a new survey to collect purchases data, and have published an article detailing our intentions along with a high level project plan.

  9. VAT project

    An article titled “ Feasibility study into the use of HMRC turnover data within Short-term Output Indicators and National Accounts (851.9 Kb Pdf) ” was published by us 14 August 2015. The project is exploring ways in which HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) administrative data could be used to quality assure, supplement or replace the current turnover-based ONS surveys. This article is the first of a series of planned articles into this work.

    A second article, " Exploitation of HMRC VAT data (695.1 Kb Pdf) ", was published 7 October 2015. This is an update of the work to exploit HMRC turnover data in short-term economic output indicators and National Accounts. This article explores the international context of the work, previous attempts to use these data in short-term economic output indicators and National Accounts and a high level overview of the process undertaken to arrive at micro-level data each month.

    A further update on the project and how it's progressing has been published (21 December 2015), titled " HMRC VAT project update (219.3 Kb Pdf) ".

  10. National accounts methodology and articles 

    We regularly publish methodological information and articles to provide more detailed information on developments within the national accounts. This includes; supplementary analyses of data to help users with the interpretation of statistics and guidance on the methodology used to produce the national accounts.

  11. National accounts classification decisions

    The UK national accounts are produced under internationally agreed guidance and rules set out principally in the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and the accompanying Manual on Government Deficit and Debt-Implementation of ESA 2010 – 2014 edition (MGDD).

    In the UK, we are responsible for the application and interpretation of these rules. Therefore we make classification decisions based upon the agreed guidance and rules, and these are published on our website.

  12. Economic context

    We publish a monthly Economic Review discussing the economic background, giving economic commentary on the latest GDP estimate and our other economic releases. The next article will be published on 8 January 2016.

  13. Basic quality information for GDP statistical bulletin

    A Quality and Methodology Information report (518.9 Kb Pdf) for this statistical bulletin can be found on our website.

  14. Important quality issues

    Common pitfalls in interpreting series:

    • expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

    • revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

    • early estimates are based on incomplete data

    Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of “errors” in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical “error”. In this context the word refers to the uncertainty inherent in any process or calculation that uses sampling, estimation or modelling. Most revisions reflect either the adoption of new statistical techniques or the incorporation of new information which allows the statistical error of previous estimates to be reduced. Only rarely are there avoidable “errors” such as human or system failures and such mistakes are made quite clear when they do occur.

  15. Reliability

    Estimates for the most recent quarters are provisional and are subject to revision in the light of updated source information. We currently provide an analysis of past revisions in the GDP and other statistical bulletins that present time series.

    Our revisions to economic statistics page brings together our work on revisions analysis, linking to articles, revisions policies and important documentation from the Statistics Commission's report on revisions.

    Revisions to data provide one indication of the reliability of main indicators. Tables 3 and 4 provide a summary on the size and direction of the revisions that have been made to data covering a 5-year period. A statistical test has been applied to the average revision to find out if it is statistically significantly different from zero. An asterisk (*) shows if the result of the test is significant.

  16. Revisions to GDP estimates  

    Table 14  shows the revisions to month 1 (preliminary) and month 2 (second) estimates of GDP. The analysis of revisions between month 1 and month 2 uses month 2 estimates published from February 2011 (Quarter 4 2010) to November 2015 (Quarter 3 2015). The analysis of revisions between month 2 and month 3 (third estimate of GDP) uses month 3 estimates published from December 2010 (Quarter 3 2010) to September 2015 (Quarter 2 2015).

    Table 14: Revisions to early estimates of UK GDP growth

    Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

    Estimate in latest period Revisions between early estimates of GDP growth (quarterly, CVM)
    Revisions to GDP growth  % growth Average over the last 5 years  Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
     Between M1 and M2  0.4 0.01 0.03
     Between M2 and M3  0.4 0.01 0.05

    Table source: Office for National Statistics

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    Table 15 shows the revisions to GDP growth and the household saving ratio between the estimate published 3 months after the end of the quarter and the equivalent estimate 3 years later. The analysis uses month 3 estimates, first published from December 2007 (Quarter 3 2007) to September 2012 (Quarter 2 2012) for GDP.

    Table 15: Revisions to month 3 estimates of GDP growth and the household saving ratio for the UK

    Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

    Estimate in latest period Revisions between first publication and estimates 3 years later
     %  growth Average over the last 5 years  Average over the last 5 years without regard to sign (average absolute revision)
    GDP growth (quarterly, CVM) 0.4 -0.04 0.41
    Household saving ratio 4.4 -0.95 1.21
     

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    Revisions triangles for the main components of GDP from expenditure, output and income approaches and spreadsheets, containing revisions triangles (real time databases) of estimates from 1992 to date and the calculations behind the averages in both tables are available on our website.


     

  17. Balancing GDP

    Information on the methods we use for balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP can be found on our website.

    The different data content of the 3 approaches dictates the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. In the UK, there are far more data available on output than in the other 2 approaches. However, in order to obtain the best estimate of GDP (the published figure), the estimates from all 3 approaches are reconciled to produce an average.

    Annually, the estimates from all 3 approaches are reconciled through the creation of Input-Output Supply and Use tables for the years for which data are available. 

    For years in which there is no Supply and Use balance, a Statistical Discrepancy exists that reflects the differences between the published headline estimate of GDP and the expenditure and income estimates.

    For all periods, the expenditure and income estimates are aligned to the published headline GDP figure. Although annual data is aligned for balanced years, there will still be quarterly differences for balanced and post balanced years, due to timing and data content issues. These are dealt with by means of explicit alignment adjustments that are applied to specific components (gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations in the income approach and changes in inventories in expenditure) to align the 3 approaches. As these are purely quarterly discrepancies, the alignments sum to zero over the year and are published explicitly in the GDP statistical bulletins. They are also published as “of which” items within the specific components, to enable users to ascertain the underlying picture.

    Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of this release, have a target limit of plus or minus £2,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, slightly larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed. To achieve this balance through alignment, balancing adjustments are applied to the expenditure and income components of GDP as required. They are applied to those individual components where data content is particularly weak in a given quarter due to a high level of forecast content, for example.

    The size and direction of the quarterly alignment adjustments in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015 indicate that in this quarter, the level of expenditure was lower than that of output as was the level of income.

    Table 16 shows the balancing adjustments applied to the GDP estimates in this publication.

    Table 16: Balancing adjustments applied to the Quarterly National Accounts GDP dataset for Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015

    UK

    £ million
    GDP measurement approach and component adjustment applied to  Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015 Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2015
    Adjustment1 Adjustment1 Adjustment1
    Expenditure
    Change in inventories
        Current prices 2000 -1000
        Chained volume measures 800 1970 -1900
    Income
    Gross operating surplus of private non-financial corporations
        Current prices -850

    Table notes:

    1. Adjustments are in £'s million

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  18. Further information

    You can get the latest copies of this and all our other releases are available through Publications on our website.

    Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available from the media relations office. Also available is a list of the ministers and officials who have pre-publication access to the contents of this bulletin.

    We are committed to ensuring all information provided is kept strictly confidential and will only be used for statistical purposes. Further details regarding confidentiality can be found in the respondent charter for businesses and respondent charter for households, on our website.

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  20. Code of practice

    National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the UK Statistics Authority's Code of Practice for Official Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.
     
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  21. Details of the policy governing the release of new data are available by visiting www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html or from the Media Relations Office email: media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk

    These National Statistics are produced to high professional standards and released according to the arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

Statistical contacts

Name Phone Department Email
Matthew Hughes +44 (0)1633 455827 GDP and Blue Book co-ordination branch gdp@ons.gsi.gov.uk
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