This is the first Statistical Release providing national projections for the number of pupils in schools by type of school and age group. Findings presented in this release use the latest available mid-2008 based population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) with trends in pupil numbers derived from data collected via the School Census (January 2009).

ONS population projections are based on assumptions about future levels of migration. Included in this report is an impact assessment of varying these migration assumptions on projected pupil numbers.

This is not a National Statistics publication. The statistics are presented as latest available findings and have been released to help planning, to study trends and to inform a variety of programmes and initiatives.

The key points from this release are:

  • Overall pupil numbers (aged up to and including 15) in state funded schools are in decline but they are projected to increase from 2011 onwards.
  • Pupil numbers in maintained nursery and primary schools are expected to start and continue to rise from 2010 onwards. By 2018 numbers are projected to reach levels last seen in the late 1970s.
  • State funded secondary school rolls started to decline after 2004 and are expected to decline further until around 2015 (when the increases in primary pupil numbers start to flow through).
  • If net migration is assumed to be zero when projecting the population for England, around 16,000 fewer pupils aged 5 to 15 (some 0.3 per cent) are projected to be in state funded schools in 2014.

Contact details

Jo Luke
Telephone: 01325 392560
Email: Joanne.Luke@education.gsi.gov.uk