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The Future of Yorkshire and Humber

Yorkshire Futures has released two complementary studies that consider the future of Yorkshire and Humber.

The Future of Yorkshire and Humber: Trends and Scenarios to 2030. 2010 review: what has changed and where are we heading?

This report revisits our work on future scenarios published in early 2008. The 2008 study developed four possible future scenarios for Yorkshire and Humber: a ‘most plausible ’scenario, ‘fragile seams’, ‘low carbon locale’ and ‘northern lights’. Each of these scenarios was based on observable trends and key drivers that were expected to shape the socio economic and environmental future of Yorkshire and Humber.

However, a great deal has changed in the past three years. In our review we develop a fifth scenario, ‘a new era of austerity’. This scenario assumes that the recession has brought about fundamental changes to our attitudes and behaviours – and that a scaled-back public sector will encourage the development of new ways of working.

The review goes on to consider emerging evidence of change in order to assess which of the scenarios are becoming more or less likely. This highlights some major challenges for Yorkshire and Humber – particularly in ensuring our most disadvantaged communities can share in a positive future.

The Future of Yorkshire and Humber: Economic Scenarios

Experian were commissioned by CEU at Yorkshire Forward and Yorkshire Futures to produce three models that show how the economy of Yorkshire and Humber could develop: under a high growth, low growth and most plausible scenario. The models estimate GVA, employment levels and emissions at both a regional and city regional level up to 2030.

The modelling highlights differing economic performance between sub regions. It also shows the Yorkshire and Humber economy  falling further behind the most successful regions in the UK. In all the models, emission levels remain well above targets.

The report concludes with a ‘call to action’ to address the negative consequences identified through the modelling.

Copies of the reports are available to download below. 


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