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Jon Wilks
Deputy Head of Mission, BaghdadHow Armed Forces Day was marked in Basra
I would like to introduce Alice Walpole, Consul General Basra, as my guest blogger this week.
Saturday 26 June was Armed Forces Day in the UK, an event which has a particular resonance here in Basra, where we are surrounded by the evidence of recent British military engagement. Last night, we held a celebration in our small British Consulate compound - attended by many members of the British community in Basra - of the courage and skill and fortitude of our armed forces. A fund-raiser for Help for Heroes, the British charity which works to rehabilitate members of the armed forces injured and maimed in the line of duty. And we invited along, too, some members of the US armed forces who are kind enough to host the British Consulate on their airbase and help facilitate our daily business. We had a noisy and cheerful barbecue, and an even noisier and livelier quiz (devised by Cecil, our military liaison officer and a Royal Navy submariner, and designed, as far as I could make out, for someone with a post-graduate degree in maritime warfare). And then, of course, we cheered the US to honourable defeat in their World Cup match against Ghana.
I found the whole event very moving. Extraordinary to be celebrating under Basra skies the courage and sacrifice of British troops, many of whom were maimed right here in our adopted city. It seemed fitting to make them the focus of our Armed Forces Day activities. And touching, too, to see the young US soldiers – aircrews, logisticians, medics, infantry - whom we had invited along, donating funds for the rehabilitation of some of their British predecessors here.
We raised a good sum of money. Over six thousand dollars.
Jon Wilks
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A Race to the Wire
Overall, however, I think the results are telling us that the call for change promoted primarily by Iraqiya has been effective. And the challenge for any future Iraqi government will be to show Iraqis that the next four years are going to be radically different from the last four. Even State of Law and Maliki have been calling for change towards a more centralised, cohesive government to deliver better on security and services. One important issue will be making progress on national reconciliation. It is already clear that many Iraqis have voted along sectarian lines. State of Law have proved strongest in Shia areas, Iraqiya in Sunni areas. Iraqiya, however, has done better at winning votes away from its base, which has enabled it to match State of Law's reliance on the Shia majority. Any government will need to have a credible commitment to inclusion to succeed in this area.
No list has won enough votes to form a government alone or with any other single list, so Iraqi politics is facing a complex negotiation between at least 3 of the major 4 lists that have performed well in these elections: Iraqiya, State of Law, Iraqi National Alliance and the Kurdistan Alliance. That could take months, like last time. Already politicians are meeting to lay the ground for a coalition. State of Law and Iraqiya are both tempting the INA and the Kurds. Things could get even more complicated, however, if Iraqiya and the INA fragment, as seems increasingly possible.
Aside from the new, emerging landscape of Iraqi politics, there has been a lot of discussion about allegations of fraud. So far the Independent Higher Elections Commission (IHEC) have received 275 serious (red) allegations, many from Ninewa, Kirkuk and Suleimaniya. These are being investigated. But the consistent picture we are getting from our political contacts, IHEC and the UN is that these allegations will not threaten the overall credibility of these elections. Add to that the security situation is not deteriorating, political tensions are not escalating and these elections look like a major achievement for Iraq.
The Iraqi people have spoken and their diversity will be represented in their parliament. The task now is to forge an effective national vision and an effective coalition government programme for the next 4 years. My colleagues and I will be working with all the political groups committed to Iraq's democracy to ensure that happens. We are encouraged and energised by what has happened during the past month and ready to sustain the momentum in the week's ahead.
Our team is led by Ambassador John Jenkins and he will be blogging once final election results are announced, giving his views on the process of government formation that is about to begin in earnest.
Jon Wilks
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A Moving and Telling Day in Iraq's History
Unfortunately I was the person who had to remain in the Embassy in Baghdad to monitor the media, collate the reports gathered by our observers all over the country and to keep London informed, but my colleagues who went out to polling stations reported a determined, proud and businesslike atmosphere. There was not the euphoria of 2005, when democracy was a novelty. But something just as encouraging, in a different way: a sense of Iraqi ownership of the electoral process and a developing understanding among citizens that the way to achieve change, rebuild Iraq and deliver a better life for all citizens will be through making a go of democracy, step by step. One thing these elections showed is that democracy in Iraq is no longer a novelty, nor is it fully embedded, but it is taking root and developing. One thing I've noticed is that Iraq's political culture has palpably matured through this campaign as candidates present and debate their programmes in a reasonable way in front of voters, particularly on TV. A number of Iraqis have told me next time they would like to see more of this in town-hall meetings face to face with the electorate.
In the battle of ideas that underlies a lot of the violence in Iraq and beyond, these elections are also important. On election day, clearly Iraqis defied terrorist intimidation. The test now is for Iraq's politicians to play by the rules of the democratic game. For losers to respect the results and for government formation to lead to an inclusive, effective, clean government that can move quickly to have a positive impact on citizens' lives.
Unofficial indicators suggest Maliki's Rule of Law and Allawi's Iraqiya have done best in the Arab parts of Iraq and the Kurdistan alliance best in the Kurdish areas, but we will have to wait until at least Thursday for the first official announcement of partial results. Many Iraqis and many of us diplomats working here are talking about the possibilities ahead, and I will offer some more views as the results emerge. But of this we can already be certain. These elections were competitive and they engaged the electorate's interest, helped by good media coverage and good voter education. Violence was clearly rejected. The Iraqi Security Forces and officials of the Independent Higher Electoral Commission (IHEC) did a very good job. Both have made great strides in recent years. And citizens of all ages and backgrounds all over the country lent a vital hand to the task of building a better future for Iraq by taking their responsibility seriously to express their choice at the ballot box.
My colleagues were most moved by the sight of the very elderly, infirm and sometimes illiterate being helped by their younger family members to vote. As one old lady said on TV, holding up her purple-inked finger after voting. I may not be around long enough to see the benefits of democracy, but I'm determined to do this for my grandchildren and their children.
All in all March 7 was a very moving and telling day in Iraq's history.
Jon Wilks
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Iraqi election process begins
Meanwhile the election campaign will continue until Saturday. My impression is that most Iraqis have decided which list or candidate they prefer, or who they think is least worst. The biq question is which list can achieve the highest % turnout of its supporters. It looks like the race is close enough for that to be a decisive factor.
A number of Iraqis I have spoken to think the campaign has gone better than expected. No great deterioration in security. Lots of media coverage of all the main lists and candidates. And a rational and informative level of debate between candidates, commentators and the electorate. This is part of Iraq's emerging political culture that Iraqis can be proud of. What strikes me in particular is the absence of the strident tone, religious slogans and conspiracy theory that passes for political debate in other parts of the region. The paradox is that despite this secular tone to the debate, most voters appear still to be ready to vote along sectarian lines. Maybe the explanation lies in something Vice-President Adel Abdul Mehdi has said. The Iraqi voter is primarily motivated by fears and this leads to voting along ethnic/sectarian/tribal lines. The task now is to provide a level of security and economic opportunity that encourages voters to vote on the basis of their interest instead.
Another important development encouraged by this campaign has been a growing understanding by Iraqis that their future lies in their own hands, and that the reconstruction of the country will not come from above or from outside, but only be achieved by their own efforts, including through the casting of ballots. This is one of the changes in mentality that the transition from dictatorship to democracy will help to achieve. Whatever the result of these elections, I think this campaign has helped Iraq make a big step forward in the education of its citizens.
One commentator on TV this morning said that this growing sense among Iraqis that it is up to them to take responsibility for their future represented a "cleansing of the spirit of the nation". I think he is right. And amidst all the continuing concerns about violence during and after elections and election malpractice, it is a positive reminder of some of the more profound changes taking place in Iraq. It also highlights by contrast the spiritual bankruptcy of the terrorists who continue to try to disrupt the political process through random violence and the killing of innocent Iraqis.
Jon Wilks
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The election campaign builds momentum
These are the 2 candidates most often talked of as the next Prime Minister. But the race is wide open. There are other well-known candidates for the Prime Ministership such as Adil Abd al-Mehdi (INA). So far no political force looks set to score a massive victory. That means complex negotiations after the elections over a coalition government. A key part of those negotiations of course will be about who gets the Prime Ministership. A price for a deal could be the appointment of an independent or relatively unknown figure. So the answer to the question, who will be the next Prime Minister of Iraq is: nobody knows. Though this uncertainty also raises concerns about vote-rigging, a period of many months to form a new government, losers resorting to violence and meddling by neighbouring countries. Britain, in support of the UN and with other members of the international community, will do all we can to minimise those risks, working to ensure the elections are free and fair and that the political atmosphere after elections encourages government formation sooner rather than later on the basis of an agreed programme to tackle the major outstanding issues facing the country.
As expected, violence has increased as elections draw near, though not enough to threaten elections. Numbers of incidents are up in Baghdad, though still much lower than a few years ago and there is increased violence along the Arab/Kurd fault line, including targeting of the Christian minority. The Iraqi Security Forces, who are implementing a special election security strategy, are in the front line. Their performance has been encouraging. The violent minority are not finding it easy to operate in Iraq and that is a major step forward. Members of the security forces will get a chance to vote separately on March 4, so they are all ready to protect polling stations on 7 March. Many Iraqis are concerned about the potential for further violence as elections draw near, but there are no signs that the threat of violence and intimidation is putting voters off participation. In 2005 citizens voters were threatened with assassination by terrorists, insurgents and criminals if they had purple indelible ink on their index finger, the sign that they had voted. In the end turnout was 70% and there was no wave of assassinations. Iraqis showed then they would not be intimidated and I am sure they will do so again, particularly as the atmosphere surrounding these elections is all in all much more positive.
So these elections are building momentum despite a range of concerns. The strongest impressions I have from the last week are the demands of many Iraqis for change and a recognition that only by participating in these elections can that happen. Even Saleh al-Mutlak's list has re-entered the elections after withdrawing because their leader was deba'athified, recognising that participation is better than a boycott. The Iraqi media has done a very good job of providing opportunities for candidates to explain themselves and debate with the electorate. The electorate has enough information to decide between the candidates and the reality is that the power of decision is in its hands. As far as I can see increasing numbers of Iraqis recognise that and are ready to use it.
Jon Wilks
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02 March 2010
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Iraq Elections
There has been blanket media coverage of the campaign on all the most popular Iraqi satellite TV channels, including genuine debate shows comparable with Question Time and Newsnight back in the UK. That's refreshing for the Middle East. But still many Iraqi voters are feeling negative: cynical or apathetic about politics, unimpressed by slogans that do not get translated into improvements in their lives, appalled by rampant corruption, concerned about a deterioration in security ahead of elections, suspicious of interference by other countries. Iraqi politicians have a real task ahead of them to build credibility in themselves and to show that democracy can deliver for people.
On the positive side, many people recognise that these elections are taking place in a more favourable atmosphere than the last national elections in 2005. Levels of violence then were much higher and the emerging political debate took place in the shadow of the gun. Sectarianism was dominant. Many Arab Sunnis boycotted the elections. People feared a descent into civil war and the division of the country.
That time is thankfully past and it is clear that now the vast majority of Iraqis want to move forward and build a better life for themselves and their families. The small minority who still think violence is the answer have made dire threats to disrupt elections, but Iraqis have suffered most from their senseless killing and destruction and have wholeheartedly rejected it. All communities are taking part. Sectarianism is routinely criticised by the public and denied by politicians, though the issue has not gone away, and can flare up, as happened in recent weeks with the row over the Deba'athification of hundreds of candidates.
Our diplomats along with colleagues from the UN and other countries moved quickly to reassure Iraqis that we were all working for free and fair elections with maximum participation by all sections of Iraqi society. And a team of our diplomats will be taking part in election observation on election day. It is encouraging that all the main political groupings and all sections of the community are now active and engaged in the campaign.
Over the next fortnight I look forward to sharing with you some of the ground truth emerging from these elections, which mark an important step in Iraq's political development. It feels like a fateful time not just for Iraqis, but for all of us who care about the future of this great country.
Jon Wilks
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28 February 2010
03 March 2010
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A blog about the work of the Deputy Head of Mission at the British Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq.