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Leigh Turner
HMA Ukraine, KyivUkraine votes: an unashamed plug for my article
Friday night in Kyiv and the temperature, figuratively at least, is rising (actual weather forecast is here). In two days the country will go to the polls. In the centre of town a political rally brings crowds onto the streets, their breath forming clouds in the cold night air. Across the city, workers are taking down the political advertising which has swamped the billboards for the past few months and which must all be gone by midnight. As I type this, I'm flicking between two of the main TV channels, each of which is giving a different candidate a chance to present a final set of arguments to the electorate. The last couple of days have seen a host of international observers arrive and fan out across the country. It all feels pretty exciting. I'm looking forward to the first round vote on Sunday to see what happens.
Meanwhile back at the embassy... the Guardian has today published on-line an article I wrote this week about the Ukrainian elections and why they matter to the UK, to Europe and beyond. Check it out. I'd be keen to know if you agree with the basic proposition. I've been fascinated since the piece was published around lunchtime on Friday to see the comments people have made on it on the Guardian web-site. Many strong opinions! Though unfortunately not many seem to be from Ukrainians. All comments welcome.
If you want to see a Ukrainian version of the Guardian article, there's a translation here.
Leigh Turner
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26 January 2010
27 January 2010
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Ukrainian election interview
Leigh Turner
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17 January 2010
17 January 2010
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East or West - not a zero-sum game?
A common theme running through Ukraine's history is its position at a crossroads between Europe and Asia, or between East and West. The concept has come up in the presidential election campaign, with suggestions that Ukraine has to "choose" between getting closer to the EU and revitalising historical connections with Russia. Sometimes in the past Ukraine has been placed on one side or other of barriers dividing East and West, such as the Curzon Line. Conversely, some of Ukraine's most impressive artistic artefacts, such as the bronze-age stone sculptures of Dnipropetrovsk, show how different cultures have helped enrich the country over the millennia.
I was struck by the East-West theme and by how cultures can be enriched by cross-fertilisation when visiting a couple of "Museums of Western and Oriental Art" in Ukraine this year. The first was in Odesa. The second, in Kyiv, was the Bogdan and Varvara Khanenko Museum of Art. Sited in an exquisitely-restored gallery built in 1887, it features a host of world-class artefacts including ancient Iranian and Iraqi art (I particularly like the 13thC "Preparation of Medicines"), works by Velasquez and Rubens, some exquisite Japanese netsuke and tsuba, rare 6th and 7th century icons from the Sinai Peninsula and, of special interest to government officials, a statue of Man, the Chinese God of Civil Servants. What's more, the museum attendants are amongst the most friendly and helpful I've ever encountered. I wrote recently about how Ukraine's multiculturalism could give it a competitive edge in the modern world. Similarly, there's no reason why Ukraine can't draw closer to the EU while retaining links with Russia: it's not a zero-sum game. On the contrary: history shows, as exemplified by recent celebrations of the fall of the Berlin Wall, that building barriers between different parts of Europe never helped Ukraine or anyone else.
Stone statue from Dnipropetrovsk "Portrait of the Infant Margarita", by Velasquez, from the Bogdan and
Leigh Turner
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03 January 2010
06 January 2010
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Will we freeze this winter?
Is it inevitable that Ukraine - and perhaps the rest of Europe - will face gas cut-offs this winter? Every month since last June Ukraine's regular gas payments to Russia have been preceded by a build-up of doom-mongering about how Kyiv does not have sufficient funds to meet its bills. The pattern goes like this. First, a politician or gas boss in Moscow or Kyiv says that Ukraine is having trouble finding the money. Then, other politicians in Kyiv or Moscow agree, and make dire predictions about how this could, as in January 2009, lead to Russia cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine, which in turn could starve the rest of Europe of supplies. Commentators from around Europe chip in to agree it's all looking ghastly; and other politicians and civil servants across the EU and beyond hold consultations about what can be done to prevent a crisis. Then, at the last minute, Ukraine finds the money and the bill is paid. Some commentators have suggested that the time of the Ukrainian presidential elections (first round 17 January, second round, if needed, on 7 February) could be particularly high-risk.
January and February are certainly likely to be cold. At the time that gas was cut off for several weeks last January, temperatures in eastern Europe plunged to minus 25 degrees. In the countries worst affected, mainly in eastern Europe, people froze to death. There was massive economic disruption - one country was estimated to have lost 1.5% of GDP. So it's vital that Russia, Ukraine and the rest of Europe make every effort to stop this happening again. That's one reason why Lord Hunt of Kings Heath, the British Energy Minister, visited Kyiv this week for talks with leading Ukrainian decisionmakers including Fuel and Energy Minister Prodan. Discussions were wide-ranging, covering also co-operation on nuclear power - where the UK has just announced a major new investment programme - Ukraine's potential accession to the Energy Community Treaty (ECoT) which is up for decision on 18 December, and continued British help on Chernobyl. But the possibility of gas cut-offs, and how to prevent this, came up at nearly every session. Lord Hunt made clear the importance the UK and EU attached to keeping the gas flowing. His Ukrainian interlocutors said they were determined to ensure this happened.
Ukraine has so far consistently paid its gas bills, and has said it will continue to do so. Money is tight, and will remain so particularly if Ukraine is unable to satisfy the IMF sufficiently to receive the next $3.8 bn tranche under the SBA. There is much the EU can do, including, most immediately, providing observers at the earliest possible stage of any potential crisis. That will help increase transparency about what's going on and lessen the risk of Russia and Ukraine each accusing the other of cutting off the gas, as happened last January. Most important, though, is the politics. Ukraine and Russia both suffered immense reputational damage from last winter's gas crisis. Neither has anything to gain from a further crisis this winter. So it's vital that both do everything possible to keep the gas flowing. If the political will is there, there is no reason whatsoever why Ukraine or anyone else should face a cut-off this winter - whatever the electoral timetable.
Leigh Turner
