I found some references already published on the TTRB by searching with keyword probability and refining my results to ‘mathematics' using the left hand menu. These references were mentioned in previous E-librarian questions relating to mathematical concepts, etc.
Rather than focusing only on key stage one, I suggest you search for articles at primary level, which may include your preferred age range. Then you can apply points to your own area.
Searching the education indexes with keyword probability along with the terms primary education; elementary education; early childhood education gives a considerable number of articles to evaluate. I include some examples below, which include the development of mathematical understanding of probability as well as some teaching methods to develop concept formation.
As this is only a sample of references it may be useful to continue searching along these lines? For any journals or articles not available in your library, you may want to check whether they are available via interlibrary loan?
I also include some book references and related articles from the TTRB.
British Education Index
NOTE: For information about accessing full text articles please read this TTRB article: Access to full text journal articles
A framework for assessing and nurturing young childrens thinking in probability. Educational Studies in Mathematics, February 1997, vol. 32, no. 2, p. 101-125, ISSN: 0013-1954. Jones-Graham-A.
Development and use of a computer-based interactive resource for teaching and learning probability in primary classrooms.
International Journal for Technology in Mathematics Education, 2006, vol. 13, no. 4, p. 205-211, ISSN: 1744-2710.
Trigueros-Maria, Lozano-Maria-Dolores, Lage-Ana-Elisa.
A scale for assessing probabilistic thinking and the representativeness tendency. Research in Mathematics Education, 2003, vol. 5:, p. 173-196, ISSN: 1479-4802. Afantiti-Lamprianou-Thekla, Williams-Julian-S.
The development of conditional probability reasoning. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, March 2007, vol. 38, no. 2, p. 213-235, ISSN: 0020-739X. Watson-Jane-M, Kelly-Ben-A.
Uncertainty in mathematics teaching: the National Curriculum experiment in teaching probability to primary pupils. Cambridge Journal of Education, November 2004, vol. 34, no. 3, p. 297-314, ISSN: 0305-764X. Threlfall-John.
Intutions (i.e. Intuitions) in the concept of probability in 6-7 year-old children. Themes in Education, April 2002, vol. 3, no. 1, p. 63-78, ISSN: 1108-5908. Paparistodemou-Efthymia, Philippou-George.
Learning to understand the forms of causality implicit in scientifically accepted explanations. Studies in Science Education, 2003, vol. 39:, p. 1-74, ISSN: 0305-7267. Grotzer-Tina-A.
Making sense of mathematical language in a primary classroom. Pages 7-12 in: Proceedings of the British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics day conferences held on 23 February 2002 at the University of Durham, Simon Goodchild (ed.), British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics, 2002. See entry under the editors name for contents of the proceedings, 2002. Bold-Christine.
Primary children's understanding of probability.
Pages 127-132 in: British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics: proceedings of the day conferences held at University of Exeter, 26 February 2000 and University of Loughborough, 6 May 2000. London: British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics, 2000. See entry under British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics for contents of the proceedings, 2000. Threlfall-John.
Understanding of Patterns, Streaks and Independence by Grade School Children. Teaching Statistics An International Journal for Teachers, Sum 2010, vol. 32, no. 2, p. 34-40, pp. 7, 22 refs., ISSN: 0141-982X. Ridgway-Carolyn, Ridgway-Derry.
"Using sequences of coin flips as a model of serial independent events, we asked schoolchildren in grades 1 through 5 to estimate the likelihood of the next flip. Most children in each grade expected short patterns to continue."
What Did You Do in Maths Today? Australian Journal of Early Childhood, Sep 2005, vol. 30, no. 3, p. 32-37, pp. 6, 16 refs., ISSN: 0312-5033. Perry-Bob, Dockett-Sue.
"As children make the transition to school, many things may change for them. Among these are the ways they interact with curriculum areas such as mathematics. This paper explores some of these changes by considering examples of children's mathematical experiences in prior-to-school and school settings and analysing them in terms of the mathematical power displayed by the children and the opportunities they have to display this power. (Contains 6 tables and 2 figures.)"
Experimental Probability in Elementary School. Teaching Statistics An International Journal for Teachers, Sum 2009, vol. 31, no. 2, p. 34-36, pp. 3, 8 refs., ISSN: 0141-982X. Andrew-Lane.
"Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae."
Chance connections. In 'ConnectEd maths : MAV's 45th annual conference, Thursday 4th and Friday 5th December 2008, La Trobe University, Bundoora' edited by J Vincent, R Pierce and J Dowsey, pages 386-401. Brunswick Vic : Mathematical Association of Victoria, 2008, ISBN: 978-1-8769-4999-0. Way-Jennifer.
"This paper provides an overview of the key concepts in chance and probability for primary and early secondary students, how these ideas develop and the ways in which they connect with other concepts and ideas in mathematics. The intention is to provide teachers with some insight into the nature of probability reasoning and provide some guidance for devising productive learning experiences for their students. It is structured around addressing the following questions: What is probability? How does probability thinking develop? How does probability connect with other mathematics? What are the key teaching points? What types of learning experiences should be planned? How can technology support probability learning?"
Emerging concepts in chance and data. Australian Journal of Early Childhood, December 2002, vol. 27, no. 4, p. 24-28, ISSN: 0312-5033. Watson-J, Kelly-B.
"Interviews with seven six-year-old children shed light on the emerging ideas related to four themes within the chance and data part of the mathematics curriculum: appreciation of uncertainty and variation, observing and creating representations, appreciating the need to count and conserve quantity, and using data for interpreting and predicting."
British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics
THE RESEARCH OF IDEAS OF PROBABILITY IN THE ELEMENTARY LEVEL OF EDUCATION
Institute of Education library catalogue
Exploring probability in school : challenges for teaching and learning. Jones, Graham A. Publisher: Springer, Publication date:c2005. ISBN:0387245294
Supporting primary mathematics, Probability. Graham, Alan. Publisher:Open University, Publication date:1990. ISBN:0749242981.
Promoting number and mathematical development in nursery through staff development
How do we teach children to be numerate?
Teaching and Learning Primary Numeracy: Policy, Practice and Effectiveness
Mathematics Progression Primary