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The National Transport Model

The National Transport Model (NTM) provides a systematic means of comparing the national consequences of alternative national transport policies or widely-applied local transport policies, against a range of background scenarios which take into account the major factors affecting future patterns of travel.

Road Transport Forecasts 2009 Results from the Department for Transport’s National Transport Model

Road Transport Forecasts 2009 (RTF09) presents the latest results from the Department for Transport’s National Transport Model (NTM), which produces forecasts of road traffic growth, vehicle tailpipe emissions , congestion and journey times. The estimates presented are mainly for England and are provided up to 2035. Forecasts for Wales are included in the annex.

Published:: 30 March 2010

The External Validation of the NTM (1 Mb)

This report assesses the forecasting performance of Version 2 of the NTM, based on external evidence. It then proposes key improvements in the modelling process to enhance forecasting performance.

Published:: 21 October 2009

NTM Version 4 High Level Overview (480 kb)

This document offers a high-level description of Version 4 of the NTM, which is currently undergoing final testing and validation within the Department. Aimed at those within the transport modelling community, it provides context for the more detailed Version 4 technical documentation and is a useful starting point for familiarisation with the new model.

Published:: 21 October 2009

NTM Recalibration: SP2 Highway Validation Final Report (1 Mb)

This report documents gives a technically detailed explanation of the work carried out by WSP to improve and update the spatially detailed Pass3 sub-model within the NTM, as part of the Version 4 development process.

Published:: 21 October 2009

NTM Re-Calibration Sub-Project 3 – Rail Interfaces (408 kb)

The rail supply sub-model in Version 4 of the NTM uses a special version of the Network Modelling Framework (NMF), which is employed for rail-specific modelling and analysis within the Department. This document provides a technically detailed explanation of the software interfaces between the NMF and the NTM.

Published:: 21 October 2009

NTM Rail Crowding Model (108 kb)

This document describes in detail how the NTM Version 4 rail supply sub-model calculates crowding costs.

Published:: 21 October 2009

Road Transport Forecasts 2008

This report presents the lastest DfT forecasts of road traffic growth, the associated congestion, journey times and emissions. The estimates are provided up to 2025.

Updating national car ownership model

The update to the Department’s NATCOP model has been a recalibration to a 2001 base, making use of up-to-date data sources of planning data and household income. The model also allows output of custom income segmentation. This will inform future versions of TEMPRO, which feed into the NTM.

Published:: 24 January 2008

National Transport Model (NTM): Summary

The Department has developed a National Transport Model (NTM) as an analytical and policy-testing tool.

Published:: 01 September 2003

The National Transport Model - detailed overview (787 kb)

The National Transport Model - Analysis for "Delivering Better Transport: Progress Report".

Published:: 01 September 2003

FORGE: The road capacity and costs model - Executive Summary

FORGE is the highway supply module of the National Transport Model. It models the congestion and pollution impacts of traffic growth and investment policies on the road network.

Published:: 20 January 2006

FORGE: The road capacity and costs model - Full report (272 kb)

FORGE is the highway supply module of the National Transport Model. It models the congestion and pollution impacts of traffic growth and investment policies on the road network.

Published:: 14 November 2005

Modelling and forecasting using the National Transport Model

An overview of the Department's National Transport Model (NTM) which has been used to generate forecasts of the outcomes from the Plan.

Published:: 20 January 2006

Development of National Transport Modelling Techniques

Final report.

Published:: 20 January 2006

Rail model - Executive Summary

Executive summary and the full report in PDF.

Published:: 20 January 2006

NTM Equilibrium Modelling Phase 2B (1 Mb)

A report produced by WSP Group on the development of a national-scale, multi-modal, equilibrium modelling suite for integration into the National Transport Model.