Each year DECC publishes updated energy projections (UEPs), analysing and projecting future energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the UK . The projections are based on assumptions of future economic growth, fossil fuel prices, UK population and other key variables. A set of projections is based on a range of assumptions to represent the uncertainty in making such projections into the future.
These projections are consistent with the most recent UK budget announcements and include all firm and funded environmental policy measures. They are used to inform energy policy and associated analytical work across Government departments.
Most recent projections
The latest emissions projections are published alongside the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan and are available below:
These projections update the previous set of projections published in November 2008 and revised projections in April 2009 (Updated energy and carbon emissions projections).
The April 2009 projections were published alongside the 2009 Budget, and compared projected net emissions against carbon budget levels. This is available on the HM Treasury: Budget 2009 - building a low carbon economy: implementing the Climate Change Act 2008 web page. For more details, see Addendum dated April 2009: updated energy and carbon emissions projections.
The current projections are presented on the net UK carbon account basis and are based on updated fossil fuel price assumptions. The projections include the policies and proposals in the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan, including the Renewable Energy Strategy.
Previous energy projections and associated work
You can find previously published projections, consultations on fossil fuel price assumptions, and other related work here:
Previous DECC emissions projections have been used to inform the:
DECC fossil fuel price assumptions
Fossil fuel price and other key assumptions are published alongside the emissions projections. As energy markets change, and especially in a period of price volatility, it is important that we continually review such assumptions.
For any enquiries about energy and emissions projections, please email the DECC modelling team at: email@example.com.