Summer forecast 2009

What can we say about this season?


Damp wet leaf

For the UK and much of western Europe rainfall is likely to be near or below average. A repeat of the very wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.

Below-average rainfall is likely over eastern Europe.

What do we mean by average rainfall?

We base our average rainfall on measurements over the whole season for the years 1971–2000. The UK average for June to August is 227 mm.


Children in a field

For the UK and much of Europe temperatures are likely to be above average.

What do we mean by average temperature?

As you would expect, temperatures can vary quite widely over the summer. So we take an average for the whole season and measure against that. The UK average for June to August from 1971–2000 is 14.1 °C.

Future updates

An update to the summer forecast will be issued by 11 a.m. on 30 June 2009.

Our seasonal forecast methods

We use global forecasting models and statistical methods. Read more…

Seasonal forecast methods

Meteorological seasons
(northern hemisphere)

March, April, May
June, July, August
September, October, November
December, January, February

28 May 2009