Published Research

Internal projects

Further monitoring of uncropped land

As part of the ongoing monitoring of uncropped land following the introduction of 0% set-aside rate in 2007/08 the work investigates how much land farmers left out of production in 2007-08 and how much they are planning to leave uncropped in 2008-09. The report uses data from the Single Payment Scheme database and includes analysis of a telephone survey conducted in November 2008.

Results published 4 February 2009

Understanding behaviours in a farming context

This discussion paper brings together theoretical and applied evidence on behaviours, interprets and presents an integrated approach tailored towards farming-focussed analysis and policy development. Summarising new work on customer insight and segmentation it also provides some implications for both policy and the development of the work of the Observatory.

Report published November 2008

Specialisation in agriculture

This research develops quantitative measures of agricultural specialisation by applying the Simpson and Shannon-Weiner diversity indices to data from the June Agricultural Survey (Census) and investigates the potential ecological impacts.

Report published July 2008

Monitoring the impact of 0% set-aside: first results

This report contains the first results from the programme of environmental monitoring, in the form of an analysis of a telephone survey conducted in November and December 2007. The report also provides some results from set-aside data relating to the 2006-07 cropping year, which was not available at the time of earlier Observatory publications.

Historic June data project

This is a two stage project. The first stage has been completed and assesses the quality of previously archived holding level June Census data for 1968-1986 to determine its usefulness for analytical purposes. Census questions have been collated for each year and the question numbers mapped from year to year. The completion of this first stage allows the archived information to become accessible to data users and to allow a greater understanding of current trends in a historical context. The second stage of this project is being undertaken by the University of Portsmouth.

Results published November 2007
Census question numbers (excel spreadsheet)

Further development of published project on set-aside

This project updates the set-aside report published in February 2006 by using 2006 June Survey data and information from the Single Payment Scheme to further analyse the changes in set aside and bare fallow.  The project also looks at the uptake of relevant options in the ELS, in order to see whether this is managing to deliver environmental benefits previously provided by set-aside.

Draft results published June 2007

Environmental monitoring

Web based publication of Observatory indicators. These include regional indicators where the data allows.

Results published June 2007

Analysis of SPS payments in England

This paper looks at the distribution of the 2005 Single Payment Scheme payments and payment rates by region, farm type and farm size.  Where possible, comparisons have been drawn with 2002-2004 payment rates for the previous production related subsidies replaced by the SPS.

Results published June 2007

Updated projections of the distribution of the Single Payment Scheme payments in 2012

Provides an updated analysis of how the distribution of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) payments in England is expected to vary by farm type, size and region in 2012 compared with the position in 2004 before the introduction of the SPS. The updated projections provide more detailed analysis as reported in Annual Review published in January 2007.

Results published February 2007

Uptake of the Single Payment Scheme by Farmers

A key objective of the CAP reforms introduced for the cropping year 2004/5 was the adoption of cross-compliance, ensuring that land was kept in Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC). The scale of the environmental benefits that this delivers will depend on a range of factors. The research looks at how widely the new Single Payment Scheme (SPS) has been adopted by farmers across particular sectors and regions. The information will also help to identify low uptake which could potentially lead to gaps in available data.

Results published February 2007

Improved local agricultural data

This project is being carried out in collaboration with CSL and aims to develop the methodology for producing agricultural data on a kilometre square grid using a combination of IACS and June Survey/Census data.

This gridded data will be of more use to researchers than traditional local area statistics based on administrative areas.

Results published 28 July 2006

Environmental impacts of changes in English cow numbers in June Survey 2005

This project investigates the 2005 June Survey results that indicated a reduction in both the dairy herd and herd replacements, particularly for the suckler herd.

The project will look at the environmental implications as a result of the differing ways in which the new CAP Reform measures are being administered within the UK and the possible reasons for the fall in herd replacements.

Results from the research project looking at suckler cows in England and implications for the environment published 5 April 2006

Results from the research project looking at dairy farming in England published 12 July 2006

Environmental impacts of changes in set-aside and fallow in June Survey 2005

This project analyses the changes in set-aside and bare fallow following the introduction of the Single Payment Scheme.

Set-aside and bare fallow need to be considered together because changes in the set-aside rules are likely to have led to some land previously recorded as set-aside now being recorded as fallow, despite the management remaining similar.

The project examines changes in both the national area and local distribution of these crops and highlight any environmental implications.

Results published 28 February 2006

External projects

Evaluation of cross compliance conditions in England

This project (undertaken by ADAS) provides an assessment of the effectiveness of cross compliance conditions in England in meeting their objectives. It identifies the nature and magnitude of the costs imposed on farmers and any others in meeting cross compliance conditions and assesses the value for money of the program. It recommends potential improvements where either environmental benefits can be delivered without additional compliance costs or where the same level of environmental benefit might be achieved at lower cost. The project tries to identify any unintended consequences, either detrimental or beneficial, of the cross compliance conditions, making recommendations for actions that will counter the former or reinforce the latter. The project also considers the behavioural change of farmers and land managers since the introduction of cross compliance.

Results published 4 March 2009

Arable case study – Environmental implications

This project builds on the case study approach developed through the programme study on “Quantitative approaches to assessment of farm level changes and implications for the environment”. The case studies illustrate an approach which the Observatory could adopt to gain insights into the environmental implications of changes as they emerge over the coming years. The key objectives for the project are the evaluation of CAP Reform on nutrient losses; evaluation of potential changes in the impacts of pesticide; assessing the impact on species of conservation/policy interest; assessing the impact on landscape character and the evaluation of energy costs. The Central Science Laboratory (CSL) carried out the work in 2007/08.

Results published 19 September 2008

Scoping study – Countryside Survey 2007 and links to agriculture

This study was carried out by the Central Science Laboratory and investigated opportunities to link the Countryside Survey 2007 to key agricultural drivers of change to better understand the role that agriculture is playing in changes in the countryside, particularly in relation to habitats and biodiversity. The study reviewed past research, particularly from the 1998 Countryside Survey which has provided assessments of the impacts of key agricultural drivers on the countryside. The study proposes a range of research options that could be taken forward in later work and ways to ensure that data from CS 2007 can be linked to the agricultural sector appropriately.

Results published 2 September 2008

Monitoring and evaluation of zero rate of set-aside in 2008 – Assessing the botanical interest of set-aside and other uncropped land

The Central Science Laboratory was commissioned to undertake a study on management of set-aside land and botanical diversity. The project looks to provide a more accurate assessment of the wildlife value of such land. The fieldwork provides an audit of habitats that have developed on set-aside areas that remain uncultivated, establishing a baseline against which to evaluate the potential impact of further changes in agricultural policy. It also provides information on the impact of the GAEC 14 regulations on biodivesity.

Results published 8 August 2008

Assessment of implications of farm level changes on environmental outcomes

This project provides an updated and enhanced assessment of the potential impacts of CAP reform on the environment by investigating current and predicted trends at farm level and by highlighting the implications for the environment of these changes. The project contributes to the external research work by building on the research studies undertaken in the first year of the Observatory Programme and providing warning signs of any changes that could have significant environmental impact.

Results published February 2008

Baseline projections for agriculture

The research provides an assessment of the impacts of current and future policies and initiatives on the farming industry to provide estimates of agricultural land use and management in 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025. The outputs will be primarily used to provide baseline data for policy development under the Water Framework Directive and for assessment of impacts of agriculture on climate change and air quality.

Results published 15 October 2007

Analysis of Farmers' Voice for 2007

The research provides analysis of Farmers' Voice data for 2007 on the influence of CAP reform and other factors on farmers intentions.  Using the Farmers Voice Survey data for 2007 ADAS have again analysed a number of questions for England in relation to farming practices and intentions by farm type, size, region and farmers ages.  ADAS have also analysed farmer reactions to the Single Payment Scheme and concerns about various potential climatatic changes.  Comparisons have been made with previous surveys and the findings from the 2005 and 2006 analyses (see below).

Results published August 2007

Environmental Monitoring Baseline Project (OBS01)

This project developed a framework for environmental monitoring for the Observatory Programme.

Using this framework, it provides a baseline environmental monitoring assessment for the first year. This monitoring is expected to form a regular part of the Observatory Programme.

Results published 8 January 2007

Environmental impacts of CAP Reform – Assessment of implications of recent farm level changes on environmental outcomes (OBS02)

This project provides an updated and enhanced assessment of the potential impacts of CAP Reform on the environment. It has done this by investigating current and predicted trends at the farm level and by highlighting the implications for the environment of these changes.

This project contributed to the work of the Observatory Programme in its first year by providing early warning signs of any changes that could have significant environmental impacts.

Results published 8 January 2007

Quantitative approaches to assessment of farm level changes and implications for the environment (OBS03)

This project provides a systematic review of the scientific evidence linking agricultural and farm level change to the environment.

It draws upon this review to highlight specific areas where further analysis on farm level changes could be targeted. It then undertakes a number of case studies in these areas. The project has helped in developing the work of the Observatory Programme in subsequent years.

Results published 8 January 2007

The Environmental implications of the 2003 CAP Reforms in England - Synthesis report (OBS04)

The project provides an overall summary of the findings from the core external project reports for OBS01, OBS02 and OBS03 carried out by CSL and CCRU (see above) as part of the external research programme for 2005/06.

Results published 8 January 2007

Analysis of Farmers' Voice 2006

This research work provides an analysis of Farmers' Voice data for 2006 on the influence of CAP Reform and other factors on farmers intentions. Using the Farmers Voice Survey data for 2006 ADAS have analysed a number of questions for England and Wales in relation to farming practices and intentions by farm type, size, region and farmers ages across similar surveys carried out in previous years in order to give a pre and post CAP Reform comparison. ADAS have also analysed how farming attitudes and understanding of decoupling, the Single Payment Scheme and impacts of Climate Change may have influenced their decisions. The results are compared against the 2005 analysis (see below).

Results published October 2006

Analysis of Farmers' Voice for 2005

The research work provides an analysis of Farmers' Voice data for 2005 on the influence of CAP Reform and other factors on farmers' intentions.

Using the Farmers Voice Survey data for 2005 ADAS have analysed a number of questions in relation to farming practices by farm type, size, region and farmers' ages across similar surveys carried out in previous years in order to give a pre and post CAP reform comparison.

Results published March 2006

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