David Miliband

Climate Cool

I promised to provide a link to the British Council China website where the debate about the role of young people in tackling climate change is being developed. My Q&A in Beijing was part of this. Here is the link http://www.britishcouncil.org.cn/climatecool/en/

Responsible Sovereignty

The debate about Burma or Kenya or Darfur, not to mention Iraq or Afghanistan, is often couched in terms of interference in the affairs of another country. And the Chinese doctrine of non interference has been used to draw a distinction with more activist approaches to foreign policy. But in an interdependent world what is non interference? We 'interfere' with each economically, politically and environmentally all the time.

That is why I used my speech at Beijing University to advocate an approach I called 'responsible sovereignty' - recognising the continuing central role of the nation state in having a hold on people's affections and for making decisions in the world, but recognising that in its treatment of its own citizens and in its engagement around the world sovereign states have responsibilities that are fettered by a set of universal values (the UN's 2005 Responsibility to Protect gave this legal form).

I built the term from Robert Zoellick's idea of 'responsible stakeholder' that he developed in 2005. But 'stakeholder' does not have a Chinese translation. And sovereignty speaks to the reality of the role of nation states.

Land of Opportunity?

Not China itself, but the Chinese view of Africa. They don't use 'make poverty history' preferring a different mindset. They call it more positive, less about deficits and more about progress.

The suspicions are well known - about exploiting energy resources. But African governments I met in Beijing were clear that Chinese investment in Africa (which totalled over $6 billion in 2005) was good for at least two reasons. First, it is directed towards infrastructure that has traditionally been neglected by project focussed Western aid donors. Second, it offers choice and contestibility for donee countries.

For the best governments in Africa, Chinese investments, with few strings attached, are a blessing. But what about those who use the absence of strings to feather their own nests not those of their people? The best answer at my seminar came in the form of an enhanced AU role - as it has shown in Kenya, it is in the best position to drive African progress on governance issues. Then the joining up of Western and Chinese aid can actually deliver for the people who matter on the ground.

China Travels

Irony of the day; Tuesday:

Long exegesis from representatives of the Communist Party about the lessons of the City of London's big bang and the importance of deregulation.

Irony of the day: Wednesday:

Magnificent car to take us from the airport to the stunning Olympic site and the "water cube", designed by Arup as a translucent energy efficient water sports centre - and the car was a Cadillac.

Wake up at the Wall:

The Great Wall has served over the centuries to try and keep the World out of China - so there is symbolism in meeting for dinner with the Chinese Foreign Minister at the "Commune Hotel" at the Wall. We are about to go for a walk on the Wall itself.

Iran Nuclear File

The UNSC's repeated call for a halt to Iran's nuclear enrichment programme is separate from the IAEA's investigation of outstanding issues in respect of the programme. But they are coming to a head together.

In New York final talks are underway on a third UN sanctions resolution. At the IAEA the report comprehensively and in detail shows the continued refusal or inability of Iran to answer clear questions about its programme. Here are the key quotes:

"During the meetings mentioned above, the Agency also described parameters and development work related to the Shahab 3 missile, in particular technical aspects of a re-entry vehicle, and made available to Iran for examination a computer image provided by other Member States showing a schematic layout of the contents of the inner cone of a re-entry vehicle. This layout has been assessed by the Agency as quite likely to be able to accommodate a nuclear device."

"On 30 March 2007, the Agency requested Iran to reconsider its decision to suspend the implementation of the modified text of its Subsidiarity Arrangements General Part, Code 3.1. (GOV/2007/22, paras 12-14), but there has been no progress on this issue."

"The one major remaining issue relevant to the nature of Iran's nuclear programme is the alleged studies on the green salt project, high explosives testing and the missile re-entry vehicle. This is a matter of serious concern and critical to an assessment of a possible military dimension to Iran's nuclear programme."

"The Agency's overall assessment requires, inter alia, an understanding of the role of the uranium metal document, and clarifications concerning the procurement activities of some military related institutions still not provided by Iran. The agency only received authorization to show some further material to Iran on 15 February 2008. Iran has not yet responded to the Agency's request of that same date for Iran to view this additional documentation on the alleged studies. In light of the above, the Agency is not yet in a position to determine the full nature of Iran's nuclear programme."

Iran: Further Attacks on Israel

I have always said that Iran is a cultered and educated country with the potential to be a key player in a key region of the world. Foreign Minister Mottaki has written in the Guardian about his country's commitments to stability.

But recent appalling comments about Israel are a recipe for instability. On 31 January President Ahmadinejad said "the mighty hands of the Palestinian people will bring about annihilation of the Zionest regime". The Commander in Chief of the IRCG said: "In the near future we must see the annihilation of the cancerous tumour of the Israeli occupation by the mighty force of the Hezbollah Ummah fighters. This rhetoric is damaging to the Middle East and damaging to Iran. The people deserve better than their leaders.

Fact Of The Day: Tuesday 27 February

The Pudong section of Shanghai, now home to 8 million people, a city the size of London, has been built and occupied within 15 years.

HONG KONG: DON'T LOOK BACK

The word "handover" carries such negative connotations that I sometimes think it should be phased out in discussions of Hong Kong. "Handover" sounds much like surrender or sell-out. The ex-British colony is not looking back. On the basis of 24 hours there, Hong Kong is not rose-tinted about the future. There are big questions about the form of universal suffrage to be adopted (see below), and about the impact of global economic shocks. But the goal of being Asia's financial capital is clear, and the strengths of the province are very strong. Certainly stronger than ten or five years ago, even if doubts have not been banished.

Ten years ago the talk was of defence against and insulation from China. Today the focus is on engagement - not as a bridge but as an "integrator", above all an integrator of Hong Kong's finance with Chinese ideas and people. An Asian time-zone version of our own ambitions.

HONG KONG: NEXT STEPS TO SUFFRAGE

The Hong Kong Basic Law contains the "ultimate aim" of universal suffrage. On 29 December this was ruled out for the 2012 Chief Executive elections but ruled in for 2017, and the 2020 Legislative Council elections in 2020). The delay is disappointing (see my comments on Hong Kong Elections) but the commitment from the Chinese Government is very important. The next steps are to see it through: it will be the ally of long-term confidence and stability.

FACT OF THE DAY: AIR CONDITIONING

The air conditioners bought in China in 2008 will use all the energy produced by the Three Gorges Dam. Oh no.

Don't forget political parties

Alina Menocal has written an interesting blog (blogs.odi.org.uk) about how to promote democratic accountability. She makes an especially relevant point given the travails in Kenya and Bangladesh and the relative success in Pakistan of this week's elections about political parties. She rightly upbraids me for not mentioning them in my ASSK speech. There is an important role here for the International Parliamentary Union which has a new chair of its British branch Roger Berry MP as well as for the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association and the Westminster Foundation for Democracy which the FCO funds.

Look East, Young Man

Today I head to China - specifically Hong Kong, Shanghai, Chongqing and Beijing. I am immensely looking forward to my visit, which I expect to be instructive, thought-provoking and inspiring in equal measure. I will follow up the Prime Minister's highly successful visit to Beijing in January, and have the time to see how Chinese engagement with globalization is changing the face of the world's largest country. My aims are simple: to try to understand the country better, to compare notes on the challenges of equality, security and sustainability in our two countries, and to forge relationships that foster Anglo-Chinese cooperation at an international level in the pursuit of shared goals.

Change within China in the last thirty years is remarkable. Chinese resilience, adaptability and innovation equally so. Their contribution to the global drive against poverty ditto. And their part in the great global surge of technological as well as economic and social progress stunning. One small example but also telling example: this month China is expected to become the most wired nation on earth, with over 215 million internet users. The world's most popular blog ("Lao Xu") is Chinese. So the progress is large. But so is the potential: only the internet penetration rate is still only 16%. And of course access to the internet is not fully open.

I will take some time to try to get a sense of the economic and social forces at work within China. I will also discuss political forces. President Hu mentioned democracy 62 times in his Party Congress speech. This is important and needs to be understood. From a British perspective democratic accountability and individual rights are a bulwark for stability in a political system; they provide vents for concern within the system rather than forcing people to turn outside it. So I will want to discuss with Chinese hosts how they see political development and the place of individual political and civil rights within their system.

But with Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and in other meetings I will also want to engage with Chinese hosts about China's role on the world stage: its relations with Europe, its vision for development in Africa, how it sees its own region, and its view of the development of the international system. China's growing strength brings clear responsibilities; expectations will inevitably rise; and in our own country and countries like ours, including the USA, the commitment to openness and engagement with China will need to carry public opinion that is buffeted by pressures of global change itself, and sees the responsibilities of globalization as critical to the enjoyment of its rights.

I do not support an Olympic boycott. I do support engagement with China on the need to work together internationally to nurture the potential gains of globalization. China depends on that cooperation; so do we.

Creating a World Without Poverty

Sounds good. It is the title of a new book by Nobel Prize winner Muhammed Yunus. He is in my mind because all over Dhaka, Bangladesh, last week were posters advertising grameenphone.com. I had heard of Grameen Bank - but grameenphone?

The Bank does micro-credit - to macro numbers. There were seven million (poor) borrowers last year, from small business to education. Now, if I understand it right, Yunus is banking (sorry) on the idea that the way to help the poor out of poverty is to connect them to the world. Hence grameen phone. Must get the book.

Kosovo: Is It Legal?

The situation in Kosovo is unique given its history and the extent of Security Council involvement over the last 9 years. The international legal framework for Kosovo stems from UN Security Council Resolution 1244 adopted in 1999. That resolution created a political process as well as establishing an international regime for Kosovo within the territory of Serbia. It was about restoring peace and security. Resolution 1244 does not determine or constrain the final status process, nor exclude outcomes. But it does envisage a final status process and it needs to be brought to a conclusion.

Independence has been declared by Kosovo after a totally exhaustive series of negotiations under which the settlement brokered by the UN Special Envoy could not be agreed because Serbia could not countenance the principle of independence, even with the degree of international supervision and limitations envisaged in the UN Special Envoy's proposal. It is important not to be confused by 1244's references to the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (now Serbia)". This is a qualified preambular reference which in its context clearly refers only to the interim phase of administration in Kosovo. Importantly it is qualified by reference to the Helsinki Final Act, a political declaration, with 10 interacting principles covering human rights as well sovereignty and territorial integrity. We need to balance these claims. Furthermore the reference to Annex 2 of the UN resolution is important - it deals with the interim status of Kosovo, rather than its final status, which is important given the arguments about what the resolution means.

The situation on the ground is moving quite fast, after a couple of months of calm since the end of the discussion process on december 10th. The presence of Nato forces has been an important influence and the political lead from Europe and elsewhere important too. Over the next few hours and days we need to be clear about European determination to speak to the European perspective for all the countries of the former Yugoslavia. It will then be for individual countries to make decisions about recognition.

Centre for European Reform - Great Work, Job Half Done

Thursday marked the tenth birthday party of the Centre for European reform which I helped to found in the 1990s. The CER has done outstanding work under the leadership of Charles Grant. It was set up with two purposes: to help reshape the debate in Europe about the future of the EU, and to help reshape the debate in Britain about its relationship to the EU. The CER has been strikingly more successful in one than the other (you can guess which).

In terms of the debate about the future direction of the EU, there is a different EU than ten years ago - marked by enlargement as well as EMU. The CER has contributed to that - issues like Turkish accession, defence co-operation, and energy security (including relations with Russia) have been led from the CER. But the debate in Britain often seems stuck in a prism of 1940s Europe rather than the present day. Sometimes the EU has contributed to its own difficulties - whether with qualified accounts or interminable institutional wrangling and that is why the Reform word is important in the CER's title. But we also have to update our own way of engaging.

Here are some starters. We don't need to see or describe the EU as a plot from which we are seeking perpetual protection - other countries also want to maintain sovereignty on key issues like foreign policy and the agenda for the EU is now dominated by issues of shared interest not invasions of sovereignty. We can benefit from as well as lead European debate - it is not a one way street. We should trumpet the modern successes of the EU - from climate change to trade and stability on our borders in the new accession countries. We need to see reform as a shared project - negotiating successfully with Russia on a Europe wide basis is in all our interests, so is continuing the reform of the CAP and the greening of the budget.

Flat and Wet

The helicopter ride across the southern and central plains of Bangladesh showed the dangers of climate change and climate change in action. I am here to discuss and celebrate the special links between Britain and Bangladesh but Bangladesh occupies a possibly unique place in the debate about climate change - able to issue a warning to rich nations that climate change is a fact not a theory, and able to urge urgency and engagement on poorer nations tempted to dismiss climate change as a rich man's problem.

The islands (Char Islands) in the middle of the Bramaputra River bear testimony to rising tides- and the washing away of homes and livelihoods in the wet season show the consequences. The DFID project I visited is putting houses on plinths to protect the people, loaning people a cow (maybe it was giving them the cow) as a source of income, and trying to develop an infrastructure measured in years rather than months. The idea of income generation through asset transfer is more Hernando de Soto than Mohammed Yunus (see below - Grameenphone) but the women I talked to, through translation, seemed to believe it had given them dignity and not just livelihood.

Bangladesh now has the opportunity to take its experience of climate change into the international arena.

Honestly - they like ID Cards...

In Gazipur province this morning I saw the construction of Bangladesh's first national voter roll and ID scheme. Cards are being issued to some 80 million people, noting photo, signature, and thumb and forefinger prints, as a way of ensuring credible and fair elections. 36 million have been registered so far by the independent electoral commission and the army. I met men and women who arrived at an appointed time for their card. Honestly - they conveyed a sense of enfranchisement, especially the women, who said it gave them for the first time the sense that their worth was equal to that of others. One woman said she would follow her husband in who to vote for - that is her right - but the sense that the process was creating a democratic base for the country was palpable.

Democratic Institutions

Bangladesh has been governeed by caretaker government (not the same as martial law) since 22 January 2007. There is a universal desire for elections to proceed this year - commitments to that end have been made by the government and all the parties. But party leaders are on trial for alleged corruption, and the political system is in limbo. The local elections that should come sooner rather than later will release some of the tension, but there are fundamental choices for Bangladesh this year. Can it follow the Indian path of democratic development, or will it fall away?

The desire for a democratic voice is strong - see above. But just a year ago there were people dying in the streets in riots and demostrations. So the stakes are high. I cannot pontificate on the rights and wrongs of the charges - but I can insist that everyone charged with a crime is judged without deference or discrimination, party leader or petty criminal. And I also know that political parties need to be about more than personality because while politicians come and go political parites need to endure. So there are responsiblities this year for the caretaker government - to fulfil its commitments to a fair elevtoral process and independent judiciary. But there are also responsibilities on the political parties - to reform themselves so that thay are credible vehicles for the articulation of popular will.

I will have more to say about the development of democratic values in my speech on Tuesday.

Afghanistan - half empty or half full?

The three reports published last week by the Afghan Study Group, Oxfam and the Atlantic Council represent sustained analysis and thoughtful prescription - a great deal of it highly resonant of the Prime Minister's statement to the House of Commons in December

I see them as a necessary contribution to a debate that must not be shirked: the Afghan effort is costing lives and money and deserves intense discussion. It cannot be said often enough that Afghanistan is an immensely poor country - 174th out of 178 in the World Development Index - with very basic systems of government. If that were not enough it is plagued by the triple whammy of civil strife, highly profitable opium production and an insurgent force ('Taleban') with deep links to al qaeda.

The Oxfam report calls for development and security to be seen as two sides of the same coin; for greater effort in rural areas; for comprehensive and long term international commitment; for Afghan ownership and for greater donor effectiveness. These are all good points and consistent with UK aims. I was also struck by the Afghan Study Group's emphasis on achieving greater consistency in the work of Provincial Reconstruction Teams, on shared purpose across the Pakistan border, and rule of law. Again - good points. There are two vital questions: whether we have an interest in being in Afghanistan to support the government's efforts, and whether we are making a difference. Most people would probably accept the former; debate is rightly on the latter. but the evidence - from development to security to governance - is that a) without the international community (over 30 nations are there) things would be much worse, and b)there is definite progress from refugees returning to girls in school to rural development councils that engage local people and military success against Taleban forces unable to make headway in conventional fighting.

But at the same time as progress there is insecurity - for Afghans and for foreign military and diplomatic personnel (I recently spoke to my Norwegian opposite number Jonas Store whose reaction to the bombing at the Serena Hotel in Kabul, where unfortunately a journalist travelling with him was killed, was to announce greater Norwegian effort) - and that insecurity is real. Checking that insecurity is a shared responsibility of the Kabul authorities and the international community. I will have more to say about this during the week.

Council for Assisting Refugee Academics

2008 is the 75th anniversary of CARA, founded in 1933 by William Beveridge Cara and its predecessors have helped about 9000 lecturers and researchers - including 18 Nobel Prize winners and 150 Fellors of the British Academy and Royal Society. I am happy to send them anniversary good wishes. Information is at www.academic-refugees.org <http://www.academic-refugees.org>

FCO Moving Forward

Today I meet 150 or so of the FCO's partners across business and the voluntary sector to discuss the FCO's forward plan. The aim is clear: more effective foreign policy, through greater clarity about the role of the FCO and greater engagement with civil society. Details are in my Written Statement to Parliament. I gather the Canadian and French governments are undertaking similar exercises.

Afghanistan

The reports of the death of the Deputy Governor of Helmand Province today, Haji Pir Mohammed, in a bombing at a mosque is a horrific reminder of the difficulties we face in Afghanistan. Two years on from the Afghan Compact signed here in London which set the framework for the international communities' help and support for the Afghan Government, three reports in recent days (by the Afghan Study Group, Oxfam and the Atlantic Council) have assessed the current state of play. The common message from all three is that we need greater coordination: between the UN, NATO and the EU, between civilian reconstruction and the armed forces, between the Afghan Government and the international community. I agree. I saw for myself when I went to Afghanistan that the sheer scale of the task is enormous and we will succeed only if we have better coordination in all those areas. The need for better coordination was central to the discussions the Prime Minister and I had with President Karzai and UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. That is why we have backed the idea of a UN Special representative who can bring the international community's effort together.

Afghanistan is a poor country ripped apart by 30 years of conflict. Up to three quarters of the population are illiterate. Constant pressures mean that the capacity of the central Government is weak. There is an insurgency fueled by criminality and drugs. Over 100 countries are committed to reverse the devastation to its society and economy of 30 years of brutal conflict. Real progress has been made and the Prime Minister set out the framework for further progress over the long term in a statement to Parliament on 12 December last year. This involves increasing the capacity and effectiveness of the Afghan Security Forces and the Afghan Government; tackling the insurgency with a politically led counter insurgency policy that involves reconciliation with those prepared to renounce violence, and dealing with the drugs industry through improved rule of law and alternative livelihoods. We all agree that there is room for better co-ordination of the international effort - that is why it is so important that the UN and the Afghan Government move as quickly as possible to find someone suitable to fulfill this key role.

Sayed Pervez Kambaksh

The media in London are following closely the case of Sayed Pervez Kambaksh, a journalist condemned to death in Afghanistan on a charge of blasphemy after he circulated an article he found on the internet. We are opposed to the death penalty in all cases and believe that freedom of expression is one of the cornerstones of a democratic society. We have raised the case as members of the EU and with the UN, and we support strongly the UN Special Representative's call for a review of the case.

Serbia not just Kosovo

The future of the Western Balkans is often described in shorthand as a question of Kosovo. And Kosovo, and the political aspirations of its majority community, are clearly a central issue for the EU. But the point about the western Balkans is that the future of the countries of ex Yugoslavia need to be seen together and not separate. So the issue is not just Kosovo; it is Serbia too.

I owe my EU Ministerial Colleagues from close to the region - notably Greece, Romania Hungary - for the emphasis they have put on dealing not just with Kosovo but with Serbia. They emphasised in July last year the need for a Troika mission to go the extra mile to try to find common ground between the two sides, and they have emphasised since the December 10th deadline for the close of the Troika mission the ened to extend a hand of friendship, and more than friendship, to Serbia. That is what the EU did on Monday, with the Invitation to an Interim Political Agreement - closer ties as a staging post to eventual membership [http://www.eu2008.si/en/News_and_Documents/Council_Conclusions/January/0128GAERC5.pdf].

The president of Serbia, Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister have set out how the elections on Sunday amount to a referendum on the way Serbia is to engage with the EU - and whether it is to accept the hand that has been extended. We await the results with interest.

Kenya - Key Role for the AU

The increasingly alarming reports of brutality and killing on ethnic lines are rightly getting a lot of coverage. Richard Dowden explained well on the Today programme on Wednesday why comparisons with Rwanda are dangerous [http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today ] . But the situation does not have to be a Rwanda for the countries of the region and the world to become concerned. Stories of Kalenjin and Kikuyu militias roaming rural Kenya in search of reprisals are stomach-churning.

There has been remarkable unanimity around the world about how Kenya can save itself from disaster: strong political leadership that recognises the need for control of militias, the need for credible investigation of allegations of electoral fraud, and the need for compromise about political power, in the short term while constitutional repair is undertaken, and in the medium term when the electorate have a further opportunity to express their views. Mark Malloch Brown met the key protagonists on Monday to give support to Kofi Annan's African Union mission. This is now the difference between the success of politics and its rejection. The AU meeting in Addis Abbaba provides the regional opportunity for pressure and engagement. But the Security Council of the UN is on standby as the world waits to see whether the country can be pulled back from the brink.

Davos fact of the day

17 per cent of Davos participants are women; the same figure as the last two years. Maybe not quite as inclusive an event as I wrote yesterday......