STATISTICAL RELEASE
Date: 31 January 2008
Nobel House, 17 Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR
Out of hours telephone 020 7270 8960
UK climate change sustainable development indicator: 2006 greenhouse gas emissions, final figures
Defra today publishes final 2006 estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gas emissions - headline results
- In 2006, UK emissions of the basket of six greenhouse gases(1) covered by the Kyoto Protocol were estimated to be 652.3 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent(2). This was 0.5 per cent lower than the 2005 figure of 655.5 million tonnes.
- Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for about 85 per cent of total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2006. In 2006, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide(3) were estimated to be 554.5 million tonnes. This was similar to the 2005 figure of 555.2 million tonnes. There was a decrease in emissions of 4.0 per cent from the residential sector, and a decrease of 1.6 per cent from the business sector. There were, however, increases in emissions from the other main sectors including the energy supply sector (1.5 per cent) and the transport sector (1.3 per cent) over the same period.
These results are shown in Table 1 and Figure 1 below. The complete time series since 1990 can be found in Annex A.
Table 1: Emissions of greenhouse gases
|
2005 |
2006 |
Change |
Total greenhouse gas emissions(1) |
655.5 |
652.3 |
-0.5% |
Net CO2 emissions(2) |
555.2 |
554.5 |
-0.1% |
Emissions are in million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
Figure 1: Emissions of greenhouse gases, 1990-2006
Coverage of emissions reporting
Reporting of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol is based on emissions in the UK, and those Crown Dependencies (Jersey, Guernsey, and the Isle of Man), and Overseas Territories (Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Falkland Islands, Gibraltar and Montserrat) that are party to the UK ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.
Reporting of CO2 emissions for the UK only incorporates Crown Dependencies, but excludes Overseas Territories.
Carbon dioxide is reported as total emissions minus total removals of CO2 from the atmosphere by carbon sinks(4). Carbon sinks are incorporated within the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, which covers afforestation, reforestation, deforestation and forest management. The Kyoto Protocol uses a narrower definition of carbon sinks than that applied for domestic UK CO2 reporting, which therefore results in a slightly different total.
These adjustments mean that the greenhouse gas basket reported for Kyoto differs slightly from the sum of the individual gases as shown.
A more detailed summary of the coverage and breakdown can be found in Annex B.
Revisions to the Inventory
The UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory is reviewed every year, and the whole historical data series is revised to incorporate methodological improvements and new data. This takes into account revisions to the datasets which have been used in its compilation, most notably the UK energy statistics published by BERR in the Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES). It is therefore not appropriate to compare the Inventory from one year with that from another – the latest Inventory represents a single consistent data series going back to 1990.
In preparing the 2006 Inventory, this has resulted in a revision to the 2005 figures. The total of all UK greenhouse gas emissions has been revised upwards from 654.1 to 655.5 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. The figure for UK CO2 emissions has also been revised upwards, from 554.2 to 555.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent. Comparing the 2006 figures with the 2005 figures published a year ago will therefore give a different year-on-year percentage change, but one which is incorrect and should not be used.
Revisions from previous estimates
Provisional estimates of 2006 UK greenhouse gas and carbon dioxide emissions were published in March 2007, based on early estimates of energy consumption for the year.
At that time, it was provisionally estimated that total UK greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 would be 658.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, which represented an increase of ½ per cent from the 2005 figure. The final 2006 figure of 652.3 million tonnes is around 1 per cent lower than the provisional estimate, and actually represents a decrease from 2005 to 2006 of around ½ per cent.
It was also provisionally estimated that net UK carbon dioxide emissions would be 560.6 million tonnes, representing an increase of 1¼ per cent from the 2005 figure. The final 2006 figure of 554.5 million tonnes is also around 1 per cent lower than the provisional estimate, and represents very little change from 2005 to 2006.
These differences arise from a combination of the range of uncertainty inherent in the provisional estimates (of the order of +/-1%), and revisions to energy statistics on which these estimates were based.
UK emissions reduction goals
The UK has a number of goals, both international and domestic, for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
These can be summarised as follows:
Kyoto Protocol target
The Kyoto Protocol uses a base year which is comprised of 1990 for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, and 1995 for fluorinated compounds. To meet its commitment under the Protocol, the UK has agreed a legally binding target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 12.5 per cent below the base year level over the period 2008-2012.
In July 2007, on completion of the review of the UK Inventory, the UK’s Kyoto base year figure was 779.9 million tonnes CO2 equivalent, based on the 2006 UK Inventory submission. This means that to meet the UK’s Kyoto commitment, greenhouse gas emissions must be below 682.4 million tonnes CO2 equivalent on average per year over the first five year commitment period of the Protocol (2008-2012).
In accordance with this average yearly target, the Kyoto Protocol target for the UK was then set at 3,412 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent over the full five year period - this is now the UK’s Assigned Amount.
For more details of the UK’s Kyoto commitment, see the UK Initial Report under the Kyoto Protocol.
Domestic CO2 goal
The UK has a domestic goal of reducing emissions of carbon dioxide to 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2010.
UK Climate Change Bill
This Bill, which is expected to receive Royal Assent by spring or early summer 2008, will set a target for the UK to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 60 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. It will also require the Government to set five year carbon budgets. Once the Act is in force, these carbon budgets and the 2050 target will be legally binding. The third carbon budget, for the period 2018-2022, must be set in the range 26-32 per cent below 1990 levels.
Emissions Trading
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) results are not published as National Statistics, and any results which incorporate EU ETS figures should therefore not be treated as National Statistics.
In reporting emissions reductions against all of these targets, the UK is able to take account of emissions trading through the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). The Scheme has now reached the end of Phase I, which covered the three year period 2005-2007, although results are only currently available for the first two years. Phase II will cover the five year period 2008-2012.
The EU ETS operates as a cap and trade scheme, which means that any installation within the Scheme in the EU is given an allocation of emissions allowances each year. If the installation’s actual emissions are above this initial allocation for the year in question, then the installation must either purchase allowances through the Scheme, or bring forward some allowances from the following year’s allocation, so as to cover the deficit. Conversely, installations with a surplus of emissions compared with their cap are allowed to either sell allowances or carry them over into the following year’s allocation, thus providing a financial incentive to reduce emissions. As there is a finite limit of allowances in the Scheme (i.e. the cap), any allowances purchased should come from installations which have reduced emissions.
Overall, in 2006 the UK was a net acquirer of allowances. This effectively means that installations between them either purchased or brought forward more emissions allowances than they sold or carried over. Taking this into account within the context of the UK’s reported emissions, this will affect the results by reducing the level of emissions by the amount of EU ETS allowances acquired in the year.
Further details of the Scheme can also be found at the EU ETS section of the Defra website.
The Government will also include any units or credits generated through the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms in its future assessment of the UK’s progress towards its emissions reduction goals.
UK performance against emissions reduction goals
Performance measured against targets, incorporating the net EU ETS trading position, can, where appropriate, be summarised as follows:
- UK emissions of the basket of six greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol were 20.7 per cent lower in 2006 than in the base year, down from 779.9 to 618.5 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent.
- UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were 12.1 per cent lower in 2006 than in 1990, down from 592.4 to 520.7 million tonnes.
- Although not specifically covered by a separate target, since 1990, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, the other two major greenhouse gases, have fallen by 53 per cent and 40 per cent respectively. Emissions of the fluorinated compounds have fallen by 25 per cent since 1990 and by 40 per cent since 1995.
These results are shown in the context of the headline results in Table 2 and Figure 2 below. A more detailed summary of the results can also be found in Annex C.
Table 2: Performance against emissions reduction goals
|
Base year emissions
|
2006 |
||
Emissions |
Change from base year |
|||
All greenhouse gases
|
No allowance for trading |
779.9 |
652.3 |
-16.4% |
With allowance for trading |
779.9 |
618.5 |
-20.7% |
|
CO2only
|
No allowance for trading |
592.4 |
554.5 |
-6.4% |
With allowance for trading |
592.4 |
520.7 |
-12.1% |
|
Emissions are in million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent
Figure 2: Performance against targets, incorporating net effect of EU ETS emissions trading
a) Carbon dioxide, UK only
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide is the main man-made contributor to global warming. The UK contributes about 2 per cent to global man-made emissions, which, according to the IPCC, were estimated to be 38 billion tonnes carbon dioxide in 2004. Carbon dioxide accounted for about 85 per cent of the UK’s man-made greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
In 2006, 40 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions were from the energy supply sector, 22 per cent from road transport, 17 per cent from business and 15 per cent from the residential sector. Since 1990, emissions from road transport have increased by 10 per cent, while emissions from the energy supply sector have reduced by 9 per cent and business emissions have reduced by 16 per cent.
Since 2005, emissions from the energy supply industry have risen by 1.5 per cent, whilst residential emissions have fallen by 4 percent.
Figure 3: Carbon dioxide emissions by source - 1990-2006
Methane
Weighted by global warming potential, methane accounted for about 7.5 per cent of the UK's greenhouse gas emissions in 2006. Methane emissions, excluding those from natural sources, were 53 per cent below 1990 levels. In 2006, the main sources of methane were landfill sites (40 per cent of the total) and agriculture (38 per cent).
Emissions from landfill have reduced by 61 per cent and emissions from agriculture by 13 per cent since 1990.
Figure 4: Methane emissions by source -1990-2006
Nitrous oxide
Weighted by global warming potential, nitrous oxide emissions accounted for about 6 per cent of the UK's man-made greenhouse gas emissions in 2006.
Nitrous oxide emissions fell by 40 per cent between 1990 and 2006. The largest reductions were in emissions from adipic acid production between 1998 and 1999. This leaves agriculture as the main source, accounting for over two thirds of emissions, mainly from agricultural soils.
Nitrous oxide emissions from road transport were more than five times higher in 2006 than in 1990, increasing from 2 per cent of the total to 14 per cent in 2006. This is a result of the introduction of three way catalytic converters, which significantly reduce emissions of various other harmful gases such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, but have a side-effect of producing higher emissions of nitrous oxide.
Figure 5: Nitrous oxide emissions by source - 1990-2006
Emissions from UK-based international aviation and shipping bunkers
*** This is a UK sustainable development strategy indicator ***
Emissions from international aviation and shipping can be estimated from refuelling from bunkers at UK airports and ports (whether by UK or non-UK operators).
Between 1990 and 2006, emissions from aviation fuel use more than doubled. Between 2005 and 2006 CO2 emissions from domestic aviation decreased by 2.8 per cent whilst international aviation emissions increased by 1.5 per cent due to an increased number of flights. High altitude aviation has a greenhouse effect over and above that of carbon dioxide alone, but this is not reflected in this indicator.
Between 1990 and 1998 emissions from UK shipping bunkers increased by around a third. Since 1998 there has been a decrease of 24 per cent in emissions from UK shipping bunkers, although there was a 16% increase from 2005 to 2006. However, UK operators purchase most of their fuel outside the UK.
Under the guidelines agreed for UNFCCC, reporting emissions from international aviation and shipping are not included in the UK’s emissions total, but these estimates are reported as memo items in national greenhouse gas inventories. Parties to the UNFCCC are required to act to limit or reduce emissions from international services working through the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Maritime Organisation (IMO).
Figure 6: Greenhouse gases from UK based international aviation and shipping bunkers - 1990-2006
Future updates to emissions estimates
Provisional estimates of UK greenhouse gas emissions for 2007 will be published as National Statistics towards the end of March 2008. This will coincide with the publication of Energy Trends by the Department of Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR), which will include the first estimates of 2007 UK energy consumption.
Further Information
Further information on climate change, include Excel downloads of all the data used to compile this statistical release, is available at: www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/index.htm
Explanatory notes
1. The basket of greenhouse gases consists of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride, all of which are weighted by global warming potential (GWP). The GWP for each gas is defined as its warming influence relative to that of carbon dioxide.
2. Emissions are presented as carbon dioxide equivalent, in line with international reporting and carbon trading protocols.
3. Carbon dioxide emissions include both emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry.
4. Carbon sinks are defined by the UNFCCC as “any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere”.
Notes to editors
- This Statistical Release and the related tables on the Defra web site are the first release of data from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for 1970-2006, produced for Defra and the Devolved Administrations by AEA Energy & Environment. Additional results will be released as they become available, including a full report published towards the end of the year. For further information on the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, see the NAEI web site.
- Similar results for non-greenhouse gas atmospheric pollutants, covering the period 1970-2006, are due to be published towards the end of March 2008. Provisional estimates of total greenhouse gas basket and carbon dioxide emissions in 2007 will also be published around this time.
- The climate change indicator, and the additional aviation and shipping indicator, are two of the 68 indicators supporting the Government’s Sustainable Development Strategy. An update of regional versions of the Sustainable Development Indicators will be published on 31st January 2008. See www.sustainabledevelopment.gov.uk/progress/regional/index.htm.
- There are uncertainties associated with all estimates of greenhouse gas emissions. However, although for any given year considerable uncertainties may surround the emissions estimates for a pollutant, it is important to note that trends over time are likely to be much more reliable. For more information on these uncertainties see the Defra website at www.defra.gov.uk/environment/statistics/globatmos/gagccukmeas.htm
- Results from the EU ETS are not currently published as National Statistics. They have therefore not been incorporated in the headline results.
A National Statistics publication National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure they meet customer needs. |
End
Public enquiries: 08459 335577
News releases available on our website:
www.defra.gov.uk
Defra's aim is sustainable development
Page modified 4 February 2008
Page published: 31 January 2008