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MISSILE DEFENCE: A Public Discussion Paper

Introduction

1. On 22 November 2002, the nineteen Heads of State and Government of the NATO nations meeting in Prague agreed on the need to pay increased attention to the issue of missile defence. In the words of the summit communiqué:

‘We are determined to deter, disrupt, defend and protect against any attacks on us, in accordance with the Washington Treaty and the Charter of the United Nations… We have therefore decided to… examine options for addressing the increasing missile threat to Alliance territory, forces and population centres in an effective and efficient way through an appropriate mix of political and defence efforts, along with deterrence. Today we initiated a new NATO Missile Defence feasibility study to examine options for protecting Alliance territory, forces and population centres against the full range of missile threats, which we will continue to assess. Our efforts in this regard will be consistent with the indivisibility of Allied security.’

2. As this statement serves to emphasise, missile defence is a subject of growing global importance. The potential threat of most concern both to national populations and to deployed forces is not from the strategic arsenals of Russia and China but from the increasing proliferation of ballistic missiles, not least owing to the potential for their combination with chemical, biological and nuclear weapons of mass destruction. The United States is now committed to a major technological effort to counter this threat. Britain too has a responsibility to take stock of the issues involved, and to consider our options for addressing this potential threat, including whether we should play a role in the US programme.

3. Many of these issues do not allow for short-term judgements. There are few absolute certainties involved. The technology challenges are formidable, and the timescales in which they can be overcome are still uncertain. The pace of missile proliferation, and the intentions of those states who might present a threat, are hard to gauge. The threat to UK territory is not immediate, but the developing potential cannot be ignored, particularly given the time required to develop missile defences. All these matters need to be considered in the context of other security and defence priorities, and balanced with a range of means of protecting international and national interests.

4. There are of course many other, possibly even more visible, threats to national security in today’s world. States and terrorist groups can attack their enemies in many different and novel ways. Nevertheless, we must aim to address all these threats, not just the most prominent. An increasing number of states have acquired, or are in the process of acquiring, advanced longer-range ballistic missile technology. Some states are seeking to develop or procure missiles with ranges greatly in excess of those which would be relevant in the context of regional threats.

5. It is not only the future possibility of a ballistic missile attack on the UK which threatens our national interests. We have a broader mutual defence commitment within the NATO Alliance. We must seek to protect our deployed forces from such attack, often as part of an Alliance or coalition effort. Global and regional stability are also important to the UK’s economic and political interests.

6. The Government agrees with the United States and our other NATO allies that the proliferation of ballistic missiles must be taken seriously. We already have a range of responses for dealing with this, from diplomacy, deterrence and arms control to non-proliferation and counter-proliferation. But we need to consider if and when we might need to decide to add further protection by joining in an expanding system of missile defences, which in due course could cover the UK and Europe. We therefore need to continue to analyse carefully the potential threat we face, the costs and benefits of a missile defence system, and how the development of missile defences might impact on our wider security concerns and those of our Allies - which includes our existing deterrence posture, as well as any bearing it may have on regional and global security.

7. This discussion paper examines the growing threat posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. It then considers possible responses to this potential threat, and whether missile defence is an appropriate addition to the range of responses available. To inform this consideration, it sets out technical details of how American and other programmes might provide a means of defending against ballistic missile attack, and reviews some of the policy issues which the UK will need to address in coming to decisions on missile defence. It seeks above all to provide a foundation for a deeper debate of the issues concerned.

Part One - The Missile Threat >

 

Last Updated: 26 Mar 03