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HM Treasury

Pre-Budget Report

06 December 2006

Trend growth: new evidence and prospects

This paper sets out the Treasury's revised view on the neutral rate of trend output growth for the post-2006 period. It reports on the main new evidence since Budget 2006 and reconsiders the projections of the components of trend growth - labour productivity, average hours, the employment rate and working-age population. The paper draws together the implications for trend output growth based on the analysis of recent evidence, and compares the Treasury's new projection trend output growth with estimates produced by external organisations.

'Trend growth: new evidence and prospects' is available in Adobe Acrobat Portable Document Format (PDF). If you do not have Adobe Acrobat installed on your computer you can download the software free of charge from the Adobe website. For alternative ways to read PDF documents and further information on website accessibility visit the HM Treasury accessibility page.

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Trend Growth: Recent Developments and Prospects, April 2002

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