Office of Science and Technology
Note by Sir Robert May FRS
This note sets out my personal view of a subject in which there
remain significant uncertainties. The main source of assessment
of the science is the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). This is supported by 150 nations, and the UK chairs
its science working group. Its last scientific assessment drew
on the work of some 3,000 of the world's leading scientists.
The Greenhouse effect and concerns about it
- The physical principle of the greenhouse effect is well established.
Put simply, the earth's surface temperature depends on the balance
between incoming short-wave energy from the sun and outgoing long-wave
energy emitted from the earth's surface and atmosphere. Some gases
("greenhouses gases") in the atmosphere allow short-wave
solar radiation to pass through and warm the earth's surface,
but at the same time these gases trap some of the long-wave infrared
radiation emitted by the ground, and keep the earth warmer than
it would otherwise be. Were it not for these natural "greenhouse
gases", the most important of which is water vapour, the
earth would be roughly 300C colder, and we would not
- Concern arises because human activities are increasing the
concentration of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide
and methane. While these facts are certain, the implications for
changes in average temperatures, both global and local, are less
certain. The ultimate effects of such temperature change on rainfall
and storm patterns - floods and droughts - and on other aspects
of our environment are hard to predict in detail, although the
broad outlines seem clear. In what follows I expand on these themes,
sketch some likely consequences for different parts of Britain
and other places, and outline some policy choices.
Facts about greenhouse gases
- Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased
by about 25% over the past 100 years (Fig 1). If current trends
in fossil fuel burning continue, carbon dioxide will be present
in the atmosphere at twice pre-industrial levels by around the
middle of the next century. Once atmospheric concentrations have
been increased they take a long time, characteristically around
100 years, to decrease even if no more carbon dioxide is added.
As with turning a large ship, there are long lags between actions
aimed at levelling-off carbon dioxide levels, and the levels actually
stabilising. This is a strong argument for early action.
- Other gases, including methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs) also contribute to the greenhouse effect. They too have
been increasing in the atmosphere. Methane levels have doubled
over the last 100 years. Nitrous oxide levels are currently rising
at around 0.25% each year. As for carbon dioxide, all these increases
are clearly caused by human activities, largely connected with
energy generation, transport and agriculture.
- Carbon dioxide contributes most to human-caused global warming,
accounting for around 70% of the total. The other gases contribute
the remaining 30%, with methane accounting for about 20%.
Greenhouse gases and global temperature
- Over the past 130 years, global average temperature has risen
about 0.6oC (Fig 1). This may sound trivial. But the
temperature difference between today and the extreme of the last
ice age, 20,000 years ago, is only about 5oC (although
this was a decrease, rather than an increase, in temperature).
The estimated range of variability in global temperature over
the past 1,000 years is around 1oC.
- Direct attribution of these temperature changes to human activities
is complicated by the fact that climate varies naturally from
year to year, and from decade to decade. Long-term human-induced
warming has to be distinguished against this natural background.
Although we do not have data reaching back many hundreds of years,
by comparing observations of global mean temperatures with natural
variability estimated from climate models, we find the warming
has, over the past couple of decades, extended beyond the bounds
of our estimates of natural variability. This is why the IPCC
considered it valid to conclude that the balance of evidence suggests
a discernible human influence on global atmosphere.
- In order to predict how increases in atmospheric concentrations
of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will affect global
temperature and other climate variables in the future, complex
mathematical models of the earth's climate system have been developed.
There is no dispute that, all other things being equal, a doubling
of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration would, by itself,
lead to an increase in average global temperature of around 1.2oC.
- The difficulty is that other things are not equal. A serious
problem is that the models are highly non-linear. A doubled input
does not necessarily lead to a doubled output; two and two do
not always add up to four. These mathematical arcana are often
manifested in feedback effects, which can amplify or ameliorate
global warming. Important such feedbacks in global climate models
arise from water vapour, cloud cover, ocean circulation, reflection
from icecaps, and other things.
- With a warmer atmosphere, more evaporation occurs from the
oceans and from wetland surfaces. On average, a warmer atmosphere
will possess a higher water vapour content. Water vapour
is a powerful greenhouse gas, so a positive feedback results,
amplifying the warming effects.
- The effect of cloud cover seems to be very variable,
depending on local conditions and on the kind of cloud. Clouds
reflect some solar radiation back to space, so reducing the global
warming effect. However, they counter this by acting as a blanket
for thermal radiation from the earth's surface, thus increasing
average temperatures. Which of the two effects dominates depends
on cloud temperature, height and optical properties (whether it
is ice or water, thick or thin). In general, low clouds cool global
climate, whereas high clouds tend to increase temperature. Feedback
can therefore be positive or negative, making the modelling difficult,
with the effects varying from place to place.
- Ocean circulation is particularly important because
the ocean acts as a big heat reservoir, redistributing heat globally
via its circulation. The timescales involved in ocean circulation
are much longer (typically decades) than those in the atmosphere
and so couplings between oceans and atmosphere, and possible changes
in ocean circulation, must be taken into account in predictions
of climate change. Quite small changes in regional transportation
by oceans can have a large, but difficult-to-predict, influence
on local climate change. Conversely, it is possible that small
changes in regional climate could result in large, and possibly
abrupt, changes in ocean circulation patterns. All this introduces
major uncertainties, particularly at the regional level.
- Another feature of non-linear systems is that, under certain
circumstances, quite small changes in a "forcing" variable
(for example atmospheric carbon dioxide) can lead to abrupt and
large changes in a dependent variable (for example, ocean circulation).
A possible example of this is the disruption we have seen to the
"El Niño" system. This is a region of unusually
warm water which appears every three to five years in the Equatorial
Pacific and which strongly influences weather patterns, especially
in tropical and sub-tropical areas. In recent years, intense El
Niño phenomena have been recorded, which are thought to
have led to extreme weather events in the Americas, Australia
and Africa. If global warming continues, perturbation to weather
systems like this are likely to become more common.
- The IPCC predicts that when all these feedback effects are
taken into account, a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide would
lead to an average global temperature increase of between 1.5
and 4.5oC, most probably 2.5oC.
- Any prediction will depend, of course, on the assumptions
we make about future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases. These, in turn, depend on assumptions about future populations,
economics and energy generation. The IPCC approaches these uncertainties
by spelling out a range of possible scenarios, and then predicting
the climate change for each.
- Figure 2 offers a summary - and a dramatic summary at that
- of the IPCC findings. The left hand side of the figure shows
the outcome of the IPCC's various scenarios for atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations for the next two centuries. Each of these
scenarios describes atmospheric carbon dioxide levels eventually
stabilising at some steady level; in the case, for example, of
S450 this happens around the year 2075, but in most of the scenarios
it takes longer. The right hand side of the figure shows the predicted
rise in average global temperature associated with each scenario,
once carbon dioxide levels have reached their steady state; the
horizontal line shows the range of predicted temperatures, and
the dot the best guess (for example, for S450, the temperature
increase is predicted to lie between 0.8 and 2.1oC,
with a best guess around 1.3oC). The figure on the
right also displays three vertical lines. The first (labelled
a) represents the estimated range of variability in global temperature
over the past 1,000 years (around 1oC), and the second
(labelled b, at 2 oC) represents double this millennial
variability and could be taken as a level at which manmade warming
would be self-evident, beyond all dispute. The third (labelled
c) shows the difference between the last ice age and the warmest
time since (around 5oC).
- These IPCC scenarios represent the levels at which atmospheric
carbon dioxide will stabilise. To achieve any of these, carbon
dioxide emissions (from transport, power generation, agriculture,
etc.) will not just have to stop growing, but will have to be
reduced below the present level. For example, S450 assumes that
global carbon dioxide emissions will fall below current
levels by about 2035, and will reduce below 40% of current levels
after 2100. Presented this way, the assessments make stark viewing.
If the "best guess" estimate for global warming associated
with any of the IPCC scenarios is accepted, only scenarios below
S550 - which I rate as rather optimistic, given current trends
in emissions - keep temperature increases below the 2oC
Consequences of global warming: general
- So far, this paper has focused on average global changes in
temperature. Of great practical interest is how climate change
will affect individual regions. Broadly, temperature increases
will be greatest at high northern latitudes, in part because the
melting of sea-ice will allow more solar radiation to be absorbed,
thus amplifying warming in this region. Warming is also likely
to be greater over land areas than over the oceans, due to the
slow thermal response of the latter. The models predict extensive
areas where rainfall will become greater, and others where the
opposite is predicted; in general, places which already get heavy
rainfall are likely to see it get heavier; conversely, where rainfall
is now light it is likely to get lighter. But the geographical
details of these findings remain, at present, uncertain.
- I note a few general conclusions, before turning in more detail
to the UK. One class of consequences of climate change relates
to sea level change. As the ocean warms, it will expand and sea
level will rise. Some land ice will melt, and so changes to the
large ice masses over Greenland and Antarctica will have additional
effects. A rise of some 50cm in average sea levels may be expected
over the next century, but there will be larger local effects.
As heat diffuses slowly to the deeper ocean, it will cause further
expansion; hence, at any given time, the observed sea level rise
will only be a fraction of that which will inevitably follow.
Even if there were to be no further change in climate (which would
require, for example, a 60% decrease in carbon dioxide emissions),
sea level rise will continue for hundreds of years.
- Temperature change also has effects upon the hydrological
cycle, which effectively translates into changes in where rain
falls, and where water ends up. As global warming increases, the
world will see more and worse droughts and floods.
- By the year 2020, climate change in Britain is likely to correspond
roughly to a northward shift in climate characteristics of some
100-200km. This and other changes will have major effects upon
the habitats and ranges of many species of plants, animals, and
micro-organisms. Many of the species, and indeed ecosystems, thus
affected will not be able to respond fast enough to "move
with the temperature change". The overall effects are extremely
complicated, and vary from region to region, in all cases surrounded
by a good deal of uncertainty. Rather than make any attempt to
survey these questions, I observe that a major recent study has
attempted to assess the economic value of the "ecosystem
services" delivered by natural ecological processes: soil
formation, water supplies, nutrient cycling, waste processing,
pollination, and much else. The assessment, necessarily very rough,
is around £10-34 trillion per year, with a best guess of
around £21 trillion, most of it outside the market. This
is roughly twice the conventional global GNP, at around £11
trillion per year. Large swathes of this £10-34 trillion
are at risk from the possible environmental and ecological changes
sketched by the IPCC.
Consequences of global warming; Britain
- Climate models are not sufficiently accurate at present to
give reliable predictions of local climate changes. In the UK,
however, climate change may already be having an appreciable effect.
Of the five warmest years in Central England's 337 year old temperature
records, three (1989, 1990, 1995) have occurred in the past 10
years. The summer of 1976 was the warmest ever, and that of 1995
the second warmest; in summer 1995, temperatures in Central England
were 3oC warmer than the average between 1961-1990.
1997 is challenging these records.
- In the summer of 1995, rainfall in Central England was about
two-thirds of the normal amount. Overall, the most obvious impact
was in the energy sector, with net savings to the consumer for
the period November 1994 to October 1995 of about £335 million.
There were negative impacts on agriculture (about £180 million),
water supply (£96 million) and the building insurance sector.
- With global warming, we can generally expect the weather to
become more extreme and more variable: more heat waves, more floods,
more droughts. The deep depression, or "hurricane",
which wrought such havoc in Southern Britain in late 1987 resulted
in damage estimated at £1.9 billion. The indications from
climate models are that the number of deep Atlantic depressions
is expected to increase; by the middle of the next century, the
incidence of gales across the country is predicted to increase
on average by 30% if no major global actions are taken to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases. There may already be some evidence
for this. Since the "hurricane" in 1987, there have
been "billion dollar" storms around the world, each
year. 1990 as well as 1987 was a particularly bad year for storms
- Climate change scenarios suggest that, as well as becoming
more windy, the south of the UK is likely to become hotter and
drier, with very warm days becoming much more frequent and the
demand for water increasing. In contrast, the north west is likely
to become wetter. Drought in the south east and flooding in the
north west are likely both to become more common. Storm damage
will be more frequent, with effects on flooding and erosion of
coastal areas and on the cost of flood defence. As temperature
increases and precipitation patterns change, natural habitats,
wildlife species and farming zones will steadily migrate northwards
(insofar as they are able to) by around 50-80 km per decade.
- In the longer term, and more uncertain, are possible effects
on ocean currents and productivity around the UK. As mentioned
earlier (paragraph 13), there is an important link between deep
ocean circulation and the hydrological cycle. Increased precipitation
in the North Atlantic region, and increased fresh water run-off,
will reduce the salinity of surface water. Water will therefore
be less dense and will not sink so readily. Such changes in marine
salt balance could modify the fluid dynamics which ultimately
drive the Gulf Stream. I emphasise that the Gulf Stream, in effect,
transports towards the British Isles "free" heat which
amounts to 27,000 times the total power generation capacity of
the UK! The possibility that this might be significantly reduced,
much less turned off, is an awesome prospect.
- More generally, the world may also be affected by migration
of populations from areas severely affected by changes in sea
level. For example, over 6 million in Bangladesh will be displaced,
and 7 million in Egypt severely affected, by a 1m rise in sea
level (assuming these populations do not increase, which is unrealistic).
What to do
- I believe the world must aim to reduce the emission of greenhouse
gases, especially carbon dioxide. The Prime Minister's personal
appearance at the Special Session at the UN General Assembly in
June, where he affirmed the UK's target of a 20% reduction in
CO2, was a valuable demonstration that the UK takes
these issues very seriously. Kyoto in December will present another
opportunity for the Deputy Prime Minister to work with our partners,
moving further toward concrete international actions to combat
- The UK has already taken exemplary steps to reduce carbon
dioxide emissions, mainly as a result of the moves from coal to
gas power generation in the late 1980s and early 1990s (which
will result in our carbon dioxide emissions in 2000 being 4 to
8% below 1990 levels). Although painful to the coal industry in
the UK, these changes entailed relatively little cost in overall
measures of environmental protection or changes in national lifestyle.
The next steps in the UK will be a lot harder.
- The UK's atmospheric input of carbon dioxide can be broken
down, by end user, into road transport (around 22%) domestic uses
(about 27%) and industry (about 28%); a miscellany of other categories
(including other transport, and heating and other energy use in
shops and offices) make up the remaining 23%. Thus the task of
reducing such inputs potentially falls very broadly.
- And we need to think long. Whatever target for 2010 is agreed
at Kyoto can only be a first step for the international community.
A long term view of policy options is necessary; effective decisions
in the short term must not hinder our options for taking measures
to meet future reductions targets.
- In the short term, significant reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions are technically possible, and can be economically feasible.
Policy measures to accelerate technology development, and to encourage
diffusion and transfer of new technologies to all centres, will
help. An integrated transport policy, plus strict air quality
standards, should help reduce vehicle emissions, but will not
of itself be sufficient without development of cleaner fuels,
more efficient engines, and alternative energy sources. The same
is true for energy supply for industrial and domestic uses. New
technologies will need to include reductions in emissions of greenhouse
gases in the "harvesting" and subsequent use of fossil
fuels, switching to non-fossil fuel sources of energy and a better
efficiency of energy use where possible. Better management of
the natural environment can also help. Improvements in how we
develop and sustainably use forests, agricultural lands, and soils
in general could play an important part in reducing emissions
and in enhancing the rate at which carbon is biologically fixed.
- UK industry should see climate change as opportunity not as
threat. Industry should be constructively addressing climate change
in their forward planning. Mitigation of climate change will require
big changes in the energy, transport and construction industries,
in terms of much greater efficiency in production and use (which
in turn will bring greater industrial efficiency and competitiveness)
and the development of appropriate, known, technologies. Many
aspects of the Foresight initiative are addressing these questions.
- Most of these actions will be impossible unless the public
in general are persuaded of the need for them. For example, if
we are to cut transport emissions not just per vehicle but in
aggregate, then some tough choices may have to be made about private
car usage. I believe there is a crucial role for ministers collectively
to play, leading the British people to appreciate the need to
take firm and early action.
- The quality of the UK's contribution to research on climate
change, in the broadest sense, is strong out of all proportion
to our relative size or research spending. We should aim to maintain
this strength, so as to have international policy underpinned
by fundamental understanding, to continue our position of international
policy and scientific leadership in this arena, and to help persuade
the world's sceptics that climate change is a real and serious
- Ultimately, the problem of climate change demands international
co-operation and co-ordination. No matter how good a job we do
in the UK, its global effects will be marginal compared with what
happens over the next few decades in, say, China. Developed countries,
with the highest level of emissions, need to take the lead. We
need to promote among developed countries an understanding that
serious and urgent action to limit emissions is needed, and to
press for a solid result in Kyoto. I also believe the Government
should use the moral authority conferred by the UK's conscientious
efforts to meet its own targets, combined with our disproportionate
contributions to basic understanding of the underpinning science,
to help developing countries reconcile sustainable development
with amelioration of atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions as far
as possible. By this, of course, I do not mean patronising moral
exhortations nor throwing money at problems, but rather partnerships
in which we explore appropriate forms of help. The Global Environment
Facility and, on a small scale (around £3m pa), the post-Rio
Darwin Initiative for helping developing countries record and
conserve their biological diversity, are models.
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