130/01
27 November 2001
REVIEW OF LONG-TERM HEALTH TRENDS
Derek Wanless today published for consultation ?Securing Our Future Health: Taking A Long-Term View?, his interim report on the long-term trends that will affect the health service over the next two decades.
The report is the result of an initial phase of domestic and international consultation that has included a major conference, various workshops and international visits.
Announcing publication of the interim report, Derek Wanless said:
?This is the first time in the history of the NHS that the Government has commissioned a long-term assessment of the resources required to fund the health service.
?In this, my interim report to the Chancellor, I have set out what I regard as the key drivers of health need and cost over the next 20 years. Although I have been able to gather and analyse a large amount of information, I am aware that many other people will have valuable contributions to make. I want to take account of these views and assess the most robust evidence possible before coming to a conclusion about the long-term resource requirements for the health service?.
The interim report presents emerging views about the key factors that drive NHS costs: catching-up to world class standards in the quality of service provided; rising patient and public expectations, particularly of the elderly; technological advance; and the recruitment and retention of an appropriately skilled workforce.
The report concludes that the impact of an ageing population on costs is not as large as is often thought and that there is scope for productivity savings to offset some cost increases. The report also concludes that ?There is no evidence that any alternative financing method to the UK's would deliver a given quality of health care at a lower cost to the economy. Indeed other systems seem likely to be more costly.?
The report sets out a number of specific questions for consultation. Mr Wanless said:
?The quality of the health service affects us all, and I would welcome views on this interim report from as many people as possible. I will be holding consultation events in the English regions, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to hear the views of experts, patient groups, and those working in the health service. I also intend to gather more evidence internationally before compiling my final report in time to inform the 2002 Spending Review?.
Responses to the interim report should be sent to Derek Wanless by 22 January 2002 by e-mail to Derek Wanless at the address below, by fax to 020 7270 5390, or by post to:
Health Trends Team
Room 82/G
HM Treasury
Parliament Street
London SW1P 3AG
NOTES FOR EDITORS
1. Budget 2001 announced that Derek Wanless, former Group Chief Executive of NatWest Bank, would undertake a review of the technological, demographic and medical trends over the next two decades that will affect the health service. The Review will report to the Chancellor in time for the Spending Review 2002.
2. The terms of reference (Treasury press release 108/01) for the review are:
-
To examine the technological, demographic and medical trends over the next two decades that may affect the health service in the UK as a whole.
- In the light of (1), to identify the key factors which will determine the financial and other resources required to ensure that the NHS can provide a publicly funded, comprehensive, high quality service available on the basis of clinical need and not ability to pay.
-
To report to the Chancellor by April 2002, to allow him to consider the possible implications of this analysis for the Government's wider fiscal and economic strategies in the medium term; and to inform decisions in the next public spending review in 2002.
The report will take account of the devolved nature of health spending in the UK and the devolved administrations will be invited to participate in the review.
3. The proceedings of a Health Trends Conference held in London 18-19 October 2001 are also published today. Both the proceedings and the interim report are available on this website. Printed copies of both papers are available from the Treasury Public Enquiry Unit on 020 7270 4558.
4. Media enquiries should be addressed to Charles Keseru in the Treasury press office on 020 7270 5188.