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HM Treasury

Budget

Chapter 1: Overview

Overview

1.1 The Government is pursuing a comprehensive and coordinated strategy to fulfil Britain's national economic potential and deliver the objective of high and stable levels of growth and employment - with rising living standards for all.

1.2 Over the past three years, the Government has been building a platform of economic stability, locking in low inflation and bringing the public finances under control. Through measures to promote enterprise and fairness and build a stronger and fairer Britain, Budget 2000 takes further steps towards meeting the Government's long-term goals - with new measures to boost productivity, encourage work, support families and communities, and protect the environment.

1.3 As a result of a commitment to stability and prudence, the Budget ensures that the Government remains on track to meet its fiscal rules and locks in the fiscal tightening over the next two years to an even greater extent than projected in Budget 99, while releasing substantial new resources for education, health, transport, law and order, tackling child poverty and supporting pensioners.

 Budget 2000, Prudent for a Purpose: Working for a Stronger and Fairer Britain, comprises the Economic and Fiscal Strategy Report (EFSR) and the Financial Statement and Budget Report (FSBR). The EFSR sets out:
  • a coherent and coordinated framework and strategy to meet the Government's objectives;
  • a progress report on what the Government has achieved so far; and
  • how Budget 2000 measures contribute to each element of the strategy.

The FSBR provides:

  • a summary of each of the main Budget measures; and
  • updated forecasts for the economy and the public finances.



1.4 Full details of the Government's economic strategy are described in the November 1999 Pre-Budget Report. The EFSR follows the same structure as the Pre-Budget Report, focusing on the following key elements:  

DELIVERING MACROECONOMIC STABILITY

1.5 Chapter 2 describes the Government's framework for macroeconomic policy and prospects for the UK economy and the public finances (full details of which are set out in Chapters B and C of the FSBR).

The new framework

1.6 Since coming into office, the Government has introduced new frameworks for both monetary and fiscal policy, both of which are highly transparent, forward-looking and underpinned by legislation:

1.7 Early indications are that the new frameworks are delivering significant benefits. In contrast to the boom and bust of the past, the UK economy has enjoyed a period of stability and steady growth since the introduction of the frameworks - with employment rising to record levels. Inflation has remained close to target and interest rates have been lower and more stable than in the past. At the same time, the new fiscal framework has restored the public finances to a healthy and sustainable position, while allowing fiscal policy to support monetary policy through the economic cycle.

The economic forecast

1.8 Economic developments over the past year have broadly confirmed the judgements taken in the Budget 99 forecast, with the pause in UK growth at the end of 1998 being short lived and stronger activity spreading to most sectors and regions of the UK economy through last year. Unemployment has fallen to 20-year lows. The Budget 2000 forecast shows that:

Fiscal developments and prospects

1.9 Latest fiscal outturns have been stronger than expected at the time of Budget 99. While some of this improvement in the public finances in 1999-2000 reflects stronger than expected growth, much of it appears to have been structural. The surplus on current budget in 1999-2000 is now estimated to be £17.1 billion, compared with a Budget 99 forecast of £2 billion.

1.10 Against this background of a significant improvement in the public finances in 1999-2000, which is projected to persist, large surpluses expected on the current budget would imply a fiscal tightening well in excess of that anticipated at the time of Budget 99. It is against this outlook that the Budget 2000 decisions have been taken.

1.11 The Government's Budget judgement ensures that the fiscal rules will continue to be met over the coming years, including under a more cautious case, and that the outcome of the Budget is consistent with the Government's continuing commitment to prudence and responsibility. The Budget locks in the fiscal tightening over the next two years to an even greater extent than projected in Budget 99, while releasing substantial new resources for the Government's key public service priorities.

1.12 In the Budget the Government is:

Table 1.1: Fiscal balances comparison with Budget 99 (1)

Outturn(2) Estimate Projections
1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02
Fiscal balances (£ billion)
Surplus on current budget - Budget 99 4.1 2 4 8
Surplus on current budget - Budget 2000 7.5 17.1 14 16
Net borrowing - Budget 99 -1 3 3 1
Net borrowing - Budget 2000 -2.8 -11.9 -6 -5
Cyclically-adjusted budget balances (per cent of GDP)
Surplus on current budget - Budget 99 0.2 0.6 1 1.1
Surplus on current budget - Budget 2000 0.6 1.8 1.3 1.3
Net borrowing - Budget 99 0.1 0 -0.2 -0.1
Net borrowing - Budget 2000 -0.1 -1.2 -0.5 -0.3
Debt ratio (per cent of GDP)
Public sector net debt - Budget 99 40.6 39.4 38.2 36.8
Public sector net debt - Budget 2000 39.7 37.1 35.1 33.6




1 Excluding windfall tax receipts and associated spending.
2 The 1998-99 figures were estimates in Budget 99.

Meeting the fiscal rules

1.13 Over the projection period, the surplus on the current budget is projected to fall gradually to 0.7 per cent of GDP by 2004-05. Consistent with the need to maintain a cautious approach, this profile shows that the Government is well on track to meet its golden rule over the projection period, with the average surplus on the current budget from 1999-2000 falling from 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2000-01 to 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2004-05. The cyclically-adjusted current budget also remains comfortably in surplus throughout the projection period.

1.14 Net debt has declined continuously as a proportion of GDP since 1996-97, when it stood at 44 per cent of GDP. By the end of March 2000, it is projected to be 37 per cent of GDP. This is consistent with meeting the sustainable investment rule. The Budget 2000 projections show a decline in net debt over the projection period, stabilising at 321/2 per cent of GDP by 2004-05 reflecting the sustained improvement in the position of the public finances. This is consistent with the projected more than doubling in net investment over the same period.

1.15 As required by the Code for Fiscal Stability, Annex A of the EFSR presents illustrative long-term fiscal projections and examines the long-term sustainability of the public finances. This indicates that the UK has a broadly sustainable fiscal position in the long term.

MEETING THE PRODUCTIVITY CHALLENGE

1.16 Britain's productivity performance lags behind that of other major countries. Chapter 3 describes the action which the Government has taken since coming into office to tackle this productivity gap and the further steps which are being taken in Budget 2000 to help make Britain the most competitive environment for business in the world and promote balanced growth across all the regions of Britain. The Government's long-term ambition for the next decade is that Britain will have a faster rise in productivity than its main competitors, as it closes the productivity gap.

Measures already announced

1.17 The Government has already taken significant steps to increase competition, enterprise and innovation, skills, investment and public sector productivity - the five key drivers of productivity performance:

Budget measures

1.18 Budget 2000 includes a further package of measures to increase productivity, boost enterprise and support small businesses across all regions of Britain:

1.19 The Secretary of State for Trade and Industry will be making further announcements shortly.

INCREASING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL

1.20 Chapter 4 describes the Government's aim to deliver employment opportunity for all - the modern definition of full employment. Its long-term economic ambition is that by the end of the decade there will be a higher percentage of people in employment than ever before. The Government is taking steps to help match the large number of vacancies in regions across the country to people in neighbouring unemployment blackspots. It is determined to help into work those who are unemployed and those who are outside the labour market but would like to find work.

Measures already announced

1.21 To deliver employment opportunity for all, the Government has already introduced an ambitious set of reforms built on the evidence of what works: helping people to move from welfare to work, helping to make work pay, and helping people to secure progression once in work:

Budget measures

1.22 Budget 2000 builds on these measures, taking further steps to secure employment opportunity for all:

FAIRNESS FOR FAMILIES AND COMMUNITIES

1.23 As discussed in Chapter 5, the Government is committed to building a fairer and more inclusive society in which everyone has the opportunity to benefit from higher living standards. In particular, it is pursuing an extensive programme to tackle the causes of poverty. The Government's long-term economic ambition is to halve child poverty by the end of the next decade, as it moves towards its aim to abolish child poverty within 20 years. The Government is also working hard to ensure that individuals and communities have access to high quality public services, including good schools and a modern health service.

Measures already announced

1.24 The key elements of the Government's strategy to meet these aims, and the measures which it has already introduced to help do so, include:

Budget measures

1.25 Budget 2000 takes further steps to support families and tackle child poverty, help pensioners, promote saving, improve public services and ensure a fair and efficient tax system.

Families and children

To provide further support for families and children:

Pensioners

To provide further support and security for pensioners, Budget 2000:

As a result of measures announced in this and previous Budgets, over the course of the current Parliament the Government will be spending an additional £6.5 billion on pensioners.

Savings

To help promote savings opportunity for all, the Budget announces that:

Modernising public services

As a result of prudent management of the public finances, Budget 2000 sustains and increases for the next four years the investment the Government has already made in Britain's key public services. Within the firm overall spending limits set by this Budget, spending will be focused on the public's priorities. The Budget announces:

Health:

Education:

Transport:

Tackling crime:

In addition, Budget 2000 is putting an immediate extra £200 million into the Government's Captial Modernisation Fund to support innovative capital projects which will improve service delivery. Further allocations from the £2.7 billion Capital Modernisation Fund will be announced in the coming weeks.

A fair and efficient tax system

The Government is committed to addressing unfairness in the taxation system. Measures in Budget 2000 to help promote a fair and efficient tax system include:

PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT

1.26 Economic growth needs to take place in a way which ensures the effective protection of the environment and the prudent use of natural resources. Chapter 6 describes the Government's strategy for protecting the environment, for both current and future generations. Budget 99 included the largest package of environmental tax reforms ever announced in the UK. Budget 2000 implements and delivers the key reforms, putting in place policies to tackle climate change, improve air quality, regenerate Britain's cities and protect the countryside.

Measures already announced

1.27 The Government has already announced a range of measures designed to meet its environmental objectives, including:

Budget measures

1.28 Budget 2000 includes further measures to tackle climate change, improve air quality, regenerate Britain's cities and protect the countryside:

1.29 Table 6.1 of the EFSR shows how the Government's environmental tax measures fit in to the overall framework of the Governments environmental policy. An environmental assessment of these measures is detailed in Table 6.2 of the EFSR.

IMPACT OF BUDGET MEASURES ON HOUSEHOLDS

1.30 The measures in this and previous Budgets support the Government's objectives of promoting and rewarding work, while giving extra support to pensioners and families with children.

1.31 By April 2001, when personal tax and benefit measures from this and previous Budgets have come into effect:

Living standards

Supporting working families

Tackling poverty

1.32 Charts 1.2 and 1.3 on page 14 provide an indication of where taxpayers' money will be spent in the year ahead and where taxes come from. These figures take account of the additional increases in spending in 2000-01 announced in Budget 2000.

Table 1.2: Budget 2000 Measures

(+ve is an Exchequer yield) £ million
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01
indexed indexed indexed non-indexed
MEETING THE PRODUCTIVITY CHALLENGE
1 New all-employee share plan -120 -280 -370 -120
2 Abolition of stamp duty on intellectual property -5 -5 -5 -5
3 Corporate venturing scheme -5 -25 -50 -5
4 Capital gains tax reform 0 -225 -275 0
5 Abolition of withholding tax on international bonds and foreign dividends 0 -300 * 0
Small business
6 Enterprise Management Incentives -30 -50 -60 -30
7 EIS/VCTs: reduction in minimum holding period and technical changes -5 -15 -25 -5
8 Permanent first year capital allowances for small and medium sized enterprises at 40% * -190 -330 *
9 First year capital allowances for small enterprises for information and communication technology at 100% for three years 0 -90 -90 0
10 Discount for filing of tax returns over the internet and electronic payment -5 -30 0 -5
Large business
11 Extending group rules for corporation tax losses and company gains -60 -100 -65 -60
12 Changes to double taxation relief 40 140 120 40
13 Reduction in interest rates on overdue quarterly instalments and de-minimis limit for CT instalments raised to £10,000 -5 * * -5
INCREASING EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ALL
14 Income tax: indexation of allowances and limit 0 0 0 -470
15 Reduction in employer national insurance contribution rate by 0.1 percentage points from April 2002 0 0 -350 0
Transition to work package
16 £100 Job Grant 0 -20 -20 0
17 Income Support Mortgage Interest run-on for 4 weeks on taking work 0 -10 -10 0
18 Income Support Mortgage Interest 52 week linking rule 0 -5 -5 0
19 Simplification of Housing Benefit Extended Payments Scheme 0 -15 -15 0
20 Increasing £15 earnings disregard in income-related benefits to £20 0 -20 -20 0
FAIRNESS FOR FAMILIES AND COMMUNITIES
Measures for families with children
Tackling child poverty
21 Increase Children's Tax Credit by £0.50 from April 2001 0 -100 -130 0
22 Increase Working Families' Tax Credit under 16 child credit and income related benefits by £4.35 from June 2000 and October 2000 respectively -665 -1,260 -1,295 -665
Maternity package
23 Extension of Working Families' Tax Credit to those receiving maternity pay 0 -40 -80 0
24 Increase Sure Start Maternity Grant by £100 -5 -20 -20 -5
Fairness to pensioners
25 Increase minimum income guarantee capital limits for pensioners from April 2001 0 -145 -145 0
26 £150 Winter Allowance from December 2000 -430 -430 -430 -430
Securing the tax base
27 Capital gains tax: use of trusts and offshore companies 0 120 125 0
28 Stamp duty: transfer of property and company reorganisations 50 100 100 50
29 Life assurance company taxation: modification of apportionment rules 50 115 120 50
Table 1.2: Budget 2000 Measures
(+ve is an Exchequer yield) £ million
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2000-01
indexed indexed indexed non-indexed
30 Insurance companies and Lloyds: reserves 0 30 120 0
31 Rent factoring 20 50 80 20
32 Controlled Foreign Companies 40 120 150 40
33 Petroleum Revenue Tax: preventing misuse of safeguard relief 0 10 30 0
34 VAT: capital asset disposals 5 5 5 5
Duties and other tax changes
35 Relaxation for flights from Scottish Highlands and Islands from April 2001 0 -5 -5 0
36 Other reforms to Air Passenger Duty -5 -75 -85 0
37 Stamp duty: 3 per cent rate for transfer of land and property above £250,000 and 4 per cent above £500,000 290 295 365 290
38 Stamp duty: Registered Social Landlords -10 -20 -20 -10
39 Enhancement to charities tax package 0 -5 -15 0
40 Alcohol: freeze duty on spirits and revalorise all other alcohol duties -25 -25 -20 140
41 VAT: reduced rates on sanitary protection -10 -35 -35 -10
42 Inheritance tax: index threshold 0 0 0 -15
43 Extending current Individual Savings Account subscription limits for 1 year to April 2001 -40 -70 -75 -40
44 5% real increase to tobacco duty 235 405 415 375
45 Reform of amusement machine licence duty -5 * * -5
46 VAT: indexation of registration and deregistration thresholds 0 0 0 -5
47 Construction industry scheme: reducing the deduction rate -150 -50 -50 -150
48 VAT: exemption 15 15 15 15
49 VAT: credit supplies -20 -20 -20 -20
PROTECTING THE ENVIRONMENT
50 Revalorisation of hydrocarbon oil duties 0 0 0 715
51 Ultra low sulphur petrol - introducing a 1p differential with unleaded petrol * -15 -35 *
52 VAT: revalorisation of fuel scale charges for business cars 0 0 0 60
53 Extending reduced VAT rate for energy saving materials -35 -35 -35 -35
54 Affordable warmth scheme: capital allowances * -10 -20 *
55 Aggregates levy 0 0 385 0
Vehicle Excise Duty:
56 Reduce VED rates for goods vehicles -45 -45 -45 -45
57 Introduction of graduated VED system for new cars from March 2001 0 -80 -140 0
58 Increase threshold for reduced VED rates for private and light goods vehicles tax class to 1,200cc (from 1,100cc) from March 2001 -120 -120 -120 -120
59 Revalorisation of VED rates for existing Private and Light Goods Vehicles deferred until March 2001 -110 0 0 -110
Total -1,165 -2,580 -2,480 -570

*negligible.
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