Sustainable Development UK Conference

Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre, London
06 March 2008

Slide 2 – We face a number of global challenges

China & India – demand for food, energy, land, water resources
poverty alleviation and the increasing population
impacts on the environment, increased demand and use of energy and food security
need technological (science and engineering) solutions

Scale of the problems is unprecedented – S&T and engineering solutions needed to combat and help solve these challenges:

Climate Change - science of the problem, CO2 levels
Poverty reduction and population growth – affects food and energy
Food and energy - unintended consequences of climate change, i.e. food security - demand and supply; and the dilemma of biofuels
This is not just a UK problem, UK reflects the problems globally
We need to embrace all possible solutions, to adapt to and mitigate against challenges faced.
Energy landscape is important - Energy Research Partnership (ERP) and the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) and others are all important.
Foresight’s Sustainable Energy Management in the Built Environment

CO2 (GHG) and Temperature linked – world will continue to get warmer and in parts of the world some Summers will be hotter and drier and winters will be milder and wetter; and sea Level will continue to rise in much of the globe
At least 35,000 people died due to record heatwave that in Europe in 2003 -such deaths are likely to increase with more extreme weather events.

Net population increase has not been great in developed countries for some time but has been much higher in developing countries
Estimates are that there will be a 50% increase from population growth – from 6billion to at least 9 billion – almost all in presently low income countries, population is growing at a rate now of about 6 million people every month.
This coupled with probable increase in world food demand that could double by 2050 and 50% increase from broad-based economic growth in low income countries
Over the past decades agricultural production has kept pace with population growth because is changes in technology driven by R&D

Reducing poverty, alongside expanding population – will mean an increase demand for food & energy, combined with (relative) decrease in supply
Increased wealth in developing countries like China and India means consumers with a bigger appetite for meat, dependent on grain and other foodstuffs previously considered luxuries.
Market prices for wheat have doubled in the last year and global stocks have fallen to their lowest point in thirty years; and supplies have dwindled.
Estimates are that there are now around 40 days of global food stocks left.

There is likely to be an increase in incomes for poorer countries and population increase.
World Bank projection is that number of people in developing countries in households that have incomes above £8,000 per year will rise from 352 million in 2000 to 2.1 billion by 2030.

Farmers use 70% of the fresh water used in the world.
They are both the largest users and the largest wasters of water.
The world’s farmers need to double food production using less water than today. Biofuels will add further to this challenge.

World energy demand increasing, particularly in the US, China and India; and World energy demand projected to increase by over 50% by 2030
Energy-related CO2 emissions will be 52% higher in 2030
Population growth, poverty alleviation, economic growth and technological developments will also drive demand

The biofuels boom – very large shock to world agriculture and science and evidence must be the only focus for any decisions
Huge production in Brazil of ethanol.

Policy drivers:

UK - Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation
EU – Biofuels Directive 2003 & EU 2020 Renewables Directive
US - have legal targets for increasing biofuels production and along side that, a system of fiscal support mechanisms, e.g. Energy Policy Act of 2005, and Small producer biodiesel and ethanol credit

UK is increasingly reliant on imported energy, & energy is key area in helping to meet challenges, esp. as projection is that energy demand & prices will continue to increase.
This will be coupled with a rise in food prices. Cereal prices have increased considerably over the past few years in the UK – prices of wheat and barley for example have increased considerably in the last two years.
Also in the UK, the price of world wheat will add to the rising costs for livestock farmers and food manufacturers.

We need to manage risks of the concentration of fossil fuel reserves in fewer and further away places, some of them in less stable parts of the world
UK will need around 30-35 GW of new electricity generation capacity over the next two decades and around two thirds of this capacity by 2020
Energy Landscape – variety of players here including ERP, ETI
Foresight - strengthens strategic policy-making by embedding a futures approach across Government
Foresight Sustainable Energy and the Built Environment Project - explores how the UK built environment could evolve to help manage the transition, over the next five decades, to secure, sustainable, low carbon energy systems that meet the needs of society, the requirements of the economy and the expectations of individuals

Need for scientific and engineering solutions to global and thus UK challenges.
Govts need to work closely with each other, with industry, NGOs & other key players.
The problems are now beyond doubt, challenge is to solve.