Motorcycles and Congestion: The Effect of Modal Split - Executive Summary

Background

In May 1999, the Government set up the 'Advisory Group on Motorcycling' as a means to investigate the potential of increased motorcycle use for reducing congestion and pollution. There were three primary terms of reference for the group:

• To look at the safety record of motorcyclists and agree measures that would improve safety
• To look at the environmental impact of motorcycles and if necessary agree measures to be taken
• To look at the role of motorcycles in integrated transport policy and to assess the scope for further enhancing their benefits through traffic management

The Advisory Group was set up after the Government's White Paper 'A new deal for transport' recognised that motorcycling had the potential to act as a viable alternative to car travel in certain circumstances. It also recognised that this brought with it potential for easing congestion, and improving the environment, although the associated safety issues also needed to be taken into account. The Advisory Group comprises various organisations with an interest in motorcycling, including road safety groups, motoring organisations, manufacturers, training associations and action groups. Since its inception, it has set up various Task Forces to examine specific issues.

The task forces' remits were wide ranging, from environmental and fiscal issues of motorcycling to advice and guidance on integration and traffic management. Within this last category, DfT commissioned a 6 month study into 'Motorcycling and Congestion', carried out by Halcrow Group Ltd. The main aim was to provide the Department with an initial appreciation of the potential effects of a mode shift to motorcycles, particularly from car.

To do this the ways in which motorcycles are ridden in congested areas, and the extent to which motorcyclists benefit when compared to car or public transport travel were investigated by means of a literature review, surveys and observation of riding characteristics in congested conditions.

The aim of this study is to build on this work, and carry it forward by developing better methods to quantify the extent of mode share transfer to motorcycle.

Study objective

The aim of this study "Motorcycles and Congestion: The Effect of Modal Shift" was to build on one particular aspect of the earlier research - the effect on congestion of modal shift to motorcycles; and to carry it forward by developing better methods to quantify the extent of potential mode share transfer to motorcycle. The many other impacts of increased motorcycle usage on safety and environment were outside the scope of this study.

The overall objective was to develop models to estimate the effect of modal transfer to motorcycles on congestion. At the outset, it was recognised that there were two drivers for potential transfer to motorcycle: motorcycle ownership and the decision to use it for specific journeys. Because the study was specifically interested in the relationship between motorcycle usage and congestion, it concentrated on motorcycle usage for travel in the AM peak. Therefore both motorcycle ownership and mode choice models reflecting choices between use of motorcycles and other modes were developed and these were then incorporated into existing transport models that could then be used to assess the impact of motorcycles on the road network, and their contribution to congestion relief.

In the final stage of the study, these models were used to test the effect of policy changes on motorcycle use for AM peak journeys and the resulting impact of mode shift on congestion. All relevant modes were considered in the mode choice modelling including car, bus and bicycles as well as combinations of modes such as car followed by park and ride. The test applications of these improved models were to cover London and a major town.

Phases of Study

The study was structured into three main phases of work, each of which is reported separately:

• Phase 1 - Estimation of motorcycle ownership and mode choice models
• Phase 2 - Implementation of mode choice model
• Phase 3 - Policy testing

The first phase of work involved analysing existing data sets on motorcycle ownership and specifying and collecting data on motorcycle usage. Statistical models were then developed for both motorcycle ownership and usage. In Phase 2 the models were implemented in two transport model applications for London and Cambridge then a range of policy tests were carried out to complete Phase 3 of the study.

Study team

The study has been undertaken by a team of consultants bringing a range of expertise to the different elements of the study.

• WSP's Policy and Research team led the study and implemented the mode choice models developed within two test applications for London and Cambridge. They specified and completed the policy testing.
• Rand Europe led the development of the motorcycle ownership and usage modelling, including the design of Stated Preference (SP) surveys used to estimate the statistical models of mode choice.
• Accent Marketing and Research carried out the fieldwork for the study, undertaking both revealed and stated preference surveys by telephone and via the Internet to provide the necessary data on motorcycle owners and their travel decisions.
• Marcus Wigan of Oxford Systematics, Australia, provided expert technical input to the data collection, the development of the models and guidance on the implementation of the models for policy testing and the associated issues. Marcus also provided a link to a number of motorcycle organisations including the British Motorcycle Federation (BMF), Motorcycle Action Group (MAG) and Motor Cycle Industry Association (MCIA), all of whom provided valuable input to the data collection, through piloting the surveys prior to their wider use.