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Strategy Survival Guide

Prime Minister's Strategy Unit

Version 2.1

Strategy SkillsBuilding an Evidence Base

Collecting data - Data types & sources

Strategy work needs to be informed by the highest quality and most up-to-date data and knowledge possible. Those involved in strategy work need to be aware of the breadth of data types and sources available, and be 'intelligent consumers' to know how to bring it to bear in a timely fashion to inform their thinking.

However, strategic thinking should not be paralysed by the absence of perfect information. Instead a pragmatic approach is needed to make judgements and take decisions based on the data available at the time. Stratgies need to be adaptable enough to respond to new data as it emerges.

Data Types

The broadest and perhaps most common distinction is between quantitative and qualitative data types:

  • Quantitative: numerical data that can be measured in units - time, money, volume, percentage etc.
  • Qualitative: descriptive data that uses words to record observations, thoughts or opinions.

Quantitative data can be generated by measurement or by asking closed questions, while qualitative data is typically generated by observation or by asking open-ended questions. While insights can be gained from isolated pieces of either quantitative or qualitative data, strategic decisions need to be based on reliably representative or statistically significant data. Specialist advice should be sought if the validity of data is in question.

Another broad distinction can be drawn between data that are:

  • Cross-sectional: observations collected at a single point in time
  • Longitudinal: observations collected over a period of time.

Cross-sectional data provide a snap shot, while longitudinal data allow trends to be observed over time. Longitudinal data, by its nature, takes longer to produce and is hence more costly, however it overcomes the bias inherent in cross sectional data when, for example, examining the variation in a variable with age.

Data can also be distinguished by the use to which they will be put. Typical uses of data in strategy work include measuring or describing:

  • Trends - the changing state of the world over time
  • Preferences - what the public and stakeholders value, and what they think about certain issues
  • Finance - how much is spent, lost, earned, saved, invested etc
  • Performance - the outputs or outcomes of an intervention or service
  • Evaluation - how well an intervention addresses the underlying issues
  • Impacts - the level and nature of unintended consequences of an intervention
  • Benchmarks - how the current situation compares to other similar situations
  • Forecasts - what the future may hold.

Government Specialists

To ensure that strategy work is based on the best data and knowledge available it often needs to draw on experts or specialists - either for their superior content knowledge or their skill in collecting and handling particular forms of data. There are number of specialisms within government that can provide expertise in different forms of data collection, interpretation and analysis. These include:

Economists

Economics is concerned with macro issues of the economy as a whole - inflation, interest rates, employment, taxation, government spending etc, as well as micro issues such as resources allocation, labour supply, pricing, and consumer behaviour. Much of the work of economists is concerned with bringing an analysis of these issues to bear in determining the nature of economic and social problems and their causes, establishing the rationale for government intervention and the role of markets, and designing and appraising policy options. A chief economist in each department heads the economics specialism. See the Government Economic Service website for details of the kind of roles that economists play in each department

Operational Researchers

Operational Research is the application of scientific methods to management problems. It aims to provide a rational basis for decision-making, by understanding and structuring complex situations. Often this involves building mathematical models to predict system behaviour and thereby assist the planning of changes to the system. Contact the Government Operational Research Service.

Scientists

The Office of Science and Technology leads for government in supporting excellent science, engineering and technology and their uses to benefit society and the economy. The OST also hosts ForeSight which aims to increase UK exploitation of science by either identifying potential opportunities for the economy or society from new science and technology, or considering how future science and technology could address key future challenges for society.

Social Researchers

Social research is about measuring, describing, explaining and predicting social and economic phenomena. In government, this relates to policy development, implementation and delivery and to the estimation of policy impacts and outcomes. Social research explores social and economic structures, attitudes, values and behaviours and the factors which motivate and constrain individuals and groups in society. Contact Government Social Research.

Statisticians

National Statistics provides up-to-date, comprehensive and meaningful data on the UK's economy, population and society that can be used to create evidence-based policies and monitor performance against them.

Data Sources

The data and knowledge that inform strategy development and strategic thinking can and should come from a wide range of sources. Specific arrangements may be required in each situation to benefit from more informal sources such as the first-hand experience of front life professionals, but for more systemised data, there are a large number of readily accessible sources.

Learning from experience

There are many of ways of ensuring that up-to-date data and learning from the front-line is fed back into strategic thinking, including:

  • Publishing early drafts of proposals to elicit challenge and feedback
  • Using pilots and controlled experiments to test out options
  • Engaging stakeholder communities in ongoing dialogue
  • Identifying best practice and looking for lessons that can be learned
  • Encouraging horizontal networks of professionals, operating units and front-line staff to enable experience to be quickly shared
  • Responding to informal information and gossip (the NASA lesson from the Shuttle disaster)
  • Granting flexibility to innovate and break the rules (e.g. Health Action Zones) with "venture capital" equivalents to finance promising new ideas
  • Establishing contestability in public services to encourage new entrants and innovation (as in prisons and welfare)
  • Commissioning real time evaluations as well as formal ex-post evaluations

Learning from systematised data

Strategy work should make full use of the enormous volume of data that is routinely captured and systemised for publication by a wide range of institutions. Much of this data is readily accessible, often without charge via the internet. Techniques such as systematic reviews and meta-analysis (explained further in The Magenta Book) are rigorous methods of consolidating what is already known about a topic, and should be explored before initiating any new systematic data capture. Useful data sources include:

Bank of England Monetary and Financial Statistics: The Bank of England publishes a large range of banking, monetary and financial statistics. Most of the series can be download as Excel files. Perhaps the most useful publication is the annual Statistics Abstract.

CIA World Factbook: CIA site providing a host of economic and other data, on a country basis. Simply click on the country.

EconData: (University of Maryland): US and international economic time series data.

EcoWin: this is a Swedish site, much of which requires registration, but it does have a free graphing facility from its databases, which cover all the major countries. The graphs are excellent and can easily be copied and pasted into PowerPoint or Word documents.

Eurostat: provides selected European Community statistics.

IMF: country reports for all countries of the world can be found on the IMF website. Three particularly useful publications are the World Economic Outlook, Annual Report and International Capital Markets. Each of these has a large statistical annex.

Financial Times: provides archive articles and statistics on a wide range of economic and business related issues.

Guide to Official Statistics: this is a directory of all statistical censuses, surveys, administrative system, publications and other services produced by government and a range of other organisations in the UK. It was produced by the former Office of National Statistics (ONS) in 2000, so may now be a little out of date.

HM Treasury: a useful source of UK data. The Economic Data and Tools, and the Budget sections are particularly useful. The Economic Data and Tools section contains Latest Economic Indicators which in addition to providing recent data releases, also contains the Pocket Data Book. This is a very useful monthly publication that downloads as an Excel Spreadsheet, with 28 tables containing time series data for a range of national and international indicators, going back to 1980.

Institute of Fiscal Studies: an independent research body, looking particularly at the UK tax system, considering the likely effects of fiscal policy on different sections of the population.

MIMAS (Manchester University): stores data from the 1981 and 1991 Censuses, UK government surveys, international macro-economic time series and geographical and satellite sources. Users need to register with the service.

National Statistics: National Statistics (formerly ONS) data sets are now freely available. The Time Series Data section of the website contains PDF versions of many documents, and downloadable Excel files of the data. Documents include: the Blue Book, the Pink Book, Labour Market Trends, Scottish Economic Statistics, New Earnings Survey, Family Spending, Social Trends, Regional Trends, Agriculture in the UK, the Annual Abstract and the Monthly Digest of Statistics. Tables from other publications including Economic Trends (Monthly and Annual Supplement) and Financial Statistics are also available.

OECD: provides a host of statistics on OECD countries. There is also the OECD Economic Outlook, a six-monthly publication which contains macroeconomic data for each of the 30 OECD countries, the EU15, the Euro area and the OECD as a whole. The data typically covers 20 years with forecasts ahead for the next 2 years.

Policy Library: a social, economic and foreign policy resource that covers a wide range of topics and sectors, and provides links to additional sources of information on each topic.

The Economist: the website provides archives of previous articles and special reports and surveys. The Economic Intelligence Unit Country Briefings also provide a good source of country information. Simply click on the country to get a selection of statistics (under Country Profile), and briefing articles.

UK Data Archive (University of Essex): contains several thousand UK, European and International data sets for the social sciences and humanities from government, academic and commercial sources. Data sets can be downloaded from the internet or ordered, although this requires registration.

World Bank Data Sets: the World Bank site contains a vast database of economic, social and other development statistics for all countries of the world. Data can be accessed by country, by topic or by using a data query (from 54 indicators, 5 years and over 200 countries.) The World Bank also publishes its annual World Development Report.

There are also a number of specialist social science databases including: Policyfile, Psyclit, Sociofile, and Social Science Abstracts. Online social science data sources include Econlit, PAIS, EPPI-Centre Library, the Campbell Library, the Cochraine Library, the National Electronic Library of Health, and the ESRC Evidence Network. Further detail on these sources can be found in The Magenta Book.

Other sources include departmental websites and libraries, which can provide departmental specific data and links to other useful sites. It can also be beneficial to search relevant academic and trade journals or magazines and visit specialist libraries.

References

Research Design, Catherine Hakim

Approaches to Social Science Research, Royce Singleton, Bruce C Straits & Margaret Miller Straits

For details of both major longitudinal and cross-sectional surveys in the UK see the UK Data Archive list of Major Studies.

Collecting data - Data types & sources

In Practice: SU Benchmarking Exercise

A recent exercise undertaken by the SU was benchmarking UK performance against other developed countries across a broad spectrum of economic and social indicators. A key task in this was data collection and analysis. Our approach was to break down the exercise into several thematic, though related, strands, which each began with a somewhat informal wish list of data and evidence. One of the lessons we learnt early on, however, was that some of the desired data simply did not exist, and much of what was available needed a good deal of reconfiguring and interpretation.

For the broad range of the issues we were considering, an obvious source of national and international data was the Office of National Statistics. Alongside the ONS, we found data and information from several other Government Departments available on their web sites - some better than others, but all providing clues and leads to other potential sources.

The team also made use of a number of other sources. In particular, we found the OECD an excellent source for a broad range of international data, and similarly the European Commission. Both offered fast access to data over the internet, though a slight drawback is that much of the more detailed data and analysis produced by these organisations remains limited to subscribers only. Other sources such as the UK based National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund also proved to be good sources for comparative international data.

Alongside these sources, we found web-based searches threw up a wide variety of useful data and evidence, particularly recent academic studies, which in some cases prompted us to contact authors directly for more. Wading through internet search returns, however, proved a frustrating and time-consuming exercise at times, highlighting the importance of thinking carefully about the key words and phrases used.


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