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The risks and how likely they are to occur, should be considered. Describe the consequences of the risks – could they stop the policy from meeting its objectives? The Summary Analysis & Evidence page of the Impact Assessment template asks you to highlight key sensitivities and risks (see example below). Your Impact Assessment should include calculating an expected value of all risks for each option, and consider how exposed each option is to future uncertainty.
You might consider making changes to the options so as to reduce these risks. Further advice is available at:
In addition, consider any possible unintended consequences for each of your options. These are not easy to predict but if you start thinking about them early it will help you to minimise problems and deliver your policy objective more successfully.
The Better Regulation Commission report on Risk, Responsibility, Regulation: Whose Risk Is It Anyway? suggests that the way the United Kingdom manages risk is leading to regulatory overkill.
While expected values can be a way of gaining a good understanding of the impact of risk between different options, as the future is inherently uncertain it is also important to consider how future uncertainties could affect the choice between options. See more infromation on sensitivity analysis here.