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A range of scenarios can be postulated for demand for coal in the UK over the next decades. These are driven primarily by assumptions about levels of coal fired power generation, which in turn depend upon assumptions about the future regulatory framework. These demand scenarios provide an opportunity for indigenous production of coal, although issues such as planning consents in particular for surface mines would also need to be considered. In all scenarios described here, however, there is a significant reliance on imports. Under only one scenario would import requirements be at 2006 levels of 50 mtpa and under all other scenarios they would be lower.
Given the abundance of proven reserves of coal globally, the future use of coal is unlikely to be limited by resource availability, but there are a number of international issues and risks that could affect future prices. A particular issue for the UK for the medium term could be availability of Russian low-sulphur coal if this coal is increasingly used for domestic power generation within Russia. This would not be expected to raise a security of supply issue, since alternative sources are available, but alternative sources are currently more expensive.
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