| Thank you for inviting me here
today. I’m delighted to be addressing so many Cranfield alumni and
clients, and in particular to celebrate the contribution the school has
made through its graduates and partners to Britain’s economic prosperity.
And it’s because of you Michael, your colleagues
at Cranfield, and colleagues at our other great Business Schools, that
Britain enjoys such global recognition in this area.
We have more business schools accredited by EQUIS
than any other European nation – and Cranfield is one of just 18 schools
worldwide to hold accreditation from all three MBA accrediting bodies .
Any person studying today at Cranfield will
recognise the importance of a strong European economy for British business
success.
My argument tonight is simple. We in Britain need
Europe to do well. Both Britain and Europe would be weaker if we were to
stand on the margins or outside. Europe needs to change to meet the
challenges of globalisation. But that change, with Britain in the
forefront, is already underway.
Britain is indeed doing well. Once derided as ‘the
sick man of Europe,’ we are now enjoying stronger and more sustained
growth than any other leading industrial nation. We have the lowest
interest rates for 40 years, the lowest inflation for 30 years and the
highest employment levels in our history.
So it is hardly surprising that we take such pride
in the fact that, thanks to our sustained economic growth, the UK has
overtaken France to become the fourth largest economy in the world. We
have closed our productivity gap with Germany, we remain the largest
destination for foreign direct investment into Europe and, judged by a
recent survey of European business leaders, we are ranked number one for
competitiveness in Europe. I take pride in all that.
But sometimes from what you read in our
Eurosceptic press, you would think that if Europe does badly, then Britain
must benefit. But we should take no pride whatsoever in the
under-performance of the Eurozone economies. Lower growth, slower growth,
in the rest of Europe costs jobs and investment in Britain.
The reality is that Britain’s economic position is
greatly strengthened by our membership of the EU.
With a market of 455 million people, the EU now
accounts for 60% of our trade, over 3 million jobs are tied to our exports
to other Member States, and over 700,000 British companies engage in
European business.
In addition, our membership of the Union has
helped deliver lower prices for consumers, a cleaner environment for our
citizens and a more coordinated and effective approach to dealing with
organized crime and terrorism.
And when the rest of Europe grows strongly,
British exports and the British economy grow even more strongly too.
You would also think, to read some of our press,
that it’s all bad economic news in the rest of Europe.
It is quite true that we have not made as much
progress as we should have done on the Lisbon Agenda – designed by
Europe’s leaders to make Europe `the most competitive and dynamic
knowledge-based economy in the world by 2010’.
But there has been real progress since we signed
up to that goal.
· More than 6 million jobs created since 1999.
· The employment rate up by 2% in the last 4 years
· Long-term unemployment down by 4%.
· The successful adoption of the European Single Currency in 12 Member
States.
· Competition policy reformed and modernized.
· Key markets completely or partially liberalized (telecommunications,
rail freight, postal services, and by 2007 electricity and gas).
When it comes to employment, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands are doing
as well or better than Britain.
On innovation, Finland leads the world – and Germany remains well ahead of
us on R&D investment.
On basic and technical skills, Germany, France and indeed the Czech
Republic are ahead.
On productivity, we’ve closed the gap with Germany but not yet with
France.
And on public transport... let’s just say we still have some way to go.
But whatever each country’s performance on different indicators, all of us
can agree that we are not satisfied with the overall performance of the
European Union.
For the last decade, the United States has grown at an average of more
than 3% a year: Europe has grown by 3% or more in just one of the last ten
years. And we continue to lag behind the US in productivity growth (1.43%
compared to 2.21% pa). At this rate, by 2045, the average US citizen will
be three times wealthier than the average European.
And on top of that, we face the challenges of a global economy.
For most of the post-war period, Europe could pursue its own economic and
social policies, without really worrying about its international position.
Its achievements were remarkable: peace and prosperity in a continent that
had been nearly destroyed by war.
But today, Europe can no longer afford to look
inwards. The volume of world trade has grown twenty fold since 1950. The
world’s stock of FDI has grown thirteen fold since 1980. And emerging and
developing countries have increased their share of world trade by a third
since 1990.
We need the European Union to evolve from an
organisation designed to tackle Europe’s internal problems to one that
helps Member States confront the challenges and opportunities of
globalisation. We need a Europe that is far more outward-looking than
traditionally it has been.
It is no longer enough to ask how we can remain
competitive in high-wage Germany, France or Britain faced with challenges
from Poland or the Czech Republic – when we all face the new challenges of
China and India.
It is no longer enough to debate how we protect
rich Europe’s social and environmental standards against so-called `social
dumping’ from poorer, newer member states – when boardrooms, making
investment decisions, look at the whole world for its possibilities.
It is no longer enough to benchmark Britain’s
performance against France, Germany and even the United States – when,
increasingly, we will have to benchmark ourselves against the science
investment, the higher education performance and the R&D achievements of
emerging economies.
China and India’s growth rate is three times
higher than Europe’s. Their population and potential consumer market five
times bigger. Their wages about a tenth of ours. Between them, they are
producing 125,000 computer science graduates every year – more than twice
the whole of the EU.
In 2001, Britain exported more than China. Now it
is the other way round. Only 1% of our exports go to China – but 3% of our
imports come from there. Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and many other
emerging economies are also contesting developed country markets.
So globalisation presents Europe with big challenges. As poorer countries
develop, the challenge to our producers will intensify – and as we know
from the experience of much of our manufacturing industry, that
competition is painful and sometimes disastrous for the people and
communities facing job losses. Governments in Europe will have to respond
even more effectively and rapidly to these changes.
But there are also enormous opportunities for our businesses and citizens
alike.
As developing countries grow, they will lift millions more people out of
poverty - and we should all rejoice at that.
As they produce better and cheaper goods, our consumers will benefit –
indeed, falling prices for electronics, to name just one sector, have
helped deliver low inflation.
And as they grow, they will become our customers. The middle-class markets
in China and India are already enormous. The sooner others become our
customers, the better for them and for us.
As the largest single market in the world, the European Union has a major
role to play in this process of integrating developing countries into the
world economy. We played a crucial role in the launch of the Doha
Development Round of the World Trade Organisation. And I am delighted that
Peter Mandelson, as Britain’s new European Commissioner, now has a
particular responsibility for bringing the Doha Round to a successful
conclusion.
The potential benefits are very large. If we can just halve the barriers
to world trade through the Doha Round, the world economy would benefit by
between $250 billion and $600 billion, with the largest share going to the
developing countries - dwarfing what they receive in aid. Indeed, the
World Bank estimates that a pro-poor Doha Round could reduce the number of
people living on less than $2 per day by 144 million.
But to secure that successful Round, Europe itself
will have to make big changes.
Big changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, for
example. Last year, Margaret Beckett led the successful argument in the
Agriculture Council for a radical reform of the CAP, enabling the European
Union to commit itself in the Doha talks to negotiating an end date for
the agricultural export subsidies that do so much damage to developing
country farmers. But, of course, more is needed – particularly to reform
the sugar regime.
Big reforms, too, in the system of tariff
escalation that allows Europe to buy raw coffee and cocoa beans at
virtually zero tariffs, but then imposes punitive tariffs on imports of
instant coffee or luxury chocolates – locking developing countries out of
the value-added production they so badly need.
Britain has not been alone in making the argument
for economic reform in Europe, but we have been at the forefront.
Take the argument about the proposed with-holding
tax on savings, a classic example of Europe looking inwards and ignoring
the rest of the world. Gordon Brown argued that such a tax would not raise
tax revenues, it would simply drive European savings abroad – to
Switzerland and New York. We won the argument and in the course of doing
so we protected Europe’s financial services and the position of the City
of London as Europe’s financial capital.
Or consider the example of the Chemicals
Directive. Everyone in the industry agrees that we need a new legislative
framework. But the Commission, in its enthusiasm to raise standards of
health and environmental protection, gave no thought to what the
competitive impact of its proposals would be. They said the German
chemicals industry would never leave Germany – a complete misreading of
the decisions boardrooms make in the global economy. We made common cause
with France and Germany, we argued for a different approach and we are
winning the argument.
Those are just two examples of what we need a
different approach to regulation in Europe.
None of this is to say that Europe should abandon
its social model. Instead, we need to find ways of achieving our social
and environmental goals that help rather than hinder economic progress.
We need a new social model. Not one based on jobs
for life, but on employability for life. Not one based on trying to
protect every job that already exists, but one based on promoting the
creation of new jobs and new businesses.
We need an understanding – not yet achieved
amongst all our colleagues - that it is wrong in principle and will not
work in practice for the EU to try to micro-manage the labour markets of
25 very different member states.
But I do see a start in Europe of a new approach.
The new European Commission, under the Presidency
of Jose Manuel Barroso, has made it clear that they will promote economic
reform, job creation and competitiveness.
The new Vice-President for competitiveness, Gunter
Verheugen, has said that better regulation will be a touchstone of his
commissioner-ship, as he brings together a competitiveness group of
commissioners.
Already, the new Commission is scrapping 100
proposals left over from the old Commission and has agreed to a proposal
from the Council of Ministers for simplifying 15 major directives.
And today, the Six Presidency initiative involving
the Irish, Dutch, British, Luxembourg, Austrian and Finnish Governments
outlined new measures to advance regulatory reform in Europe.
So far from being a lone voice within the EU on
this issue, we are working with other Member States, winning the argument
and advancing reform.
Let me finish with the wider picture.
The great historic achievement of the European Union has been to make war
unthinkable in a continent that has been devastated by war for centuries.
Ninety years after the start of the First World
War, nearly 60 years after the end of the Second World War, it is very
easy for people, our children’s generation in particular, to take that
achievement for granted.
But over the last twenty years, we have seen how
the European Union – and the prospect of EU membership – acted as a magnet
for countries freed from communism.
In the last few days, we have seen people in
Ukraine – inspired by earlier European struggles for democracy –
protesting, demanding and winning fresh elections.
And today, Europe remains a magnet – a powerful
touchstone of reform and modernization – for Rumania, Bulgaria and,
crucially, Turkey. We in the British Government strongly support Turkey's
EU membership prospects. We want to see a positive decision on opening
accession negotiations with Turkey, just as we led the way in opening EU
membership to ten new member states.
When so many are queuing up to join, why would
Britain want to leave?
I readily accept that there is not much idealism
left in the debate within Britain about our future relationship with
Europe.
But alongside the idealism that some still hold,
there is also self-interest.
I am sure many of the people in this room are
contemplating careers in which they will live and work in a great many of
the EU Member States. Millions of our citizens enjoy the freedom to
travel, without visas, all over Europe – at air fares that have been
slashed by EU intervention - or to buy a second home or retire in another
European country. If we were outside we would lose out directly for all
those reasons I gave earlier. And the voices of reform in Europe would
also be weakened.
We are not the only people arguing for a new
approach in Europe – and we are winning that argument. But with Britain
absent, or sidelined, regulatory reform would be weakened, bad regulation
more likely. If we were outside, and still wanted to trade with the EU, we
would have to abide by those rules, with no say in making them. And the
whole of Europe would lose out, because growth would be slower as a
result.
That is a risk that we should never be prepared to
take.
Thank You.
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