Technical Note for PSA 10

URN No: 02/1613/A10

PSA Target 10. In the three years to 2006, taking account of the economic cycle, increase the employment rate and significantly reduce the difference between the overall employment rate and the employment rate of ethnic minorities. Joint target with DWP

Data
The overall employment rate will be measured using seasonally adjusted employment rates (the proportion of the population of working age (16-59 for females and 16-64 for males) who are in employment) based on International Labour Organisation (ILO) definitions, in Great Britain. A full definition can be found on page S3 in the Labour Market Trends “pink pages” (see http://www.nationalstatistics.gov.uk).

The employment rate of minority ethnic groups will be measured on the basis of aggregated data for all respondents to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) who classify themselves to a minority ethnic background.

These are National Statistics.

Timings
Data available quarterly, seasonally unadjusted

Success criterion
The baseline will be an average of the four quarterly LFSs to Spring (March-May) 2003 and an average of the four quarters to Spring (March-May) 2006 as the end point comparator.

We will attempt to measure the impact of employment policies, other government policies, and exogenous factors on the employment rate, taking account of the economic cycle, by:

-          Evaluations and assessment of the effects of individual policy measures

-          Best assessments of movements in the overall employment rate measures taking account of the economic cycle, using econometric models

-          Retrospective modelling and evaluation

Assessments of success in meeting this target will take into account sampling error, as far as possible. Given the sample sizes for disadvantaged groups, these may be quite large relative to the change in the employment rate. This may mean that it will not be possible to make a firm judgment of success until a long enough run of data is available.