Reports and publications

Project reports

Download the full 235 page report here, or read the executive summary for an overview of the report.

Final report (PDF, 6.1 Mb) 
Executive summary (PDF, 2.3 Mb) 
Action plan (PDF, 622 Kb) 
Scenarios (PDF, 623 Kb) 

Hard copies of the final report and executive summary are available. Please contact us to make a request.

Evidence base

Driver reviews

• DR1 What are the environmental and non-environmental drivers which are pulling people to certain locations and how might they be affected by environmental change? What other areas might become highly attractive because of environmental change? (PDF, 301 Kb)  
• DR2 Urbanisation in Africa in the context of environmental change (PDF, 834 Kb)  
• DR3 How the shape of global and regional labour markets affects migration and how this might be affected by environmental change (PDF, 3.5 Mb)  
• DR5 The relationship between environmental change, conflict and human migration (PDF, 1.4 Mb)  
• DR6 Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards, and non-environmental drivers of change, in desert margins over the next fifty years that might be relevant to migration (PDF, 9.3 Mb) 
• DR7a Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards in low-lying coastal areas over the next fifty years that might be relevant to migration (PDF, 3.5 Mb)  
• DR8a Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards in the Mediterranean basin over the next fifty years that might be relevant to migration (PDF, 4.7 Mb)  
• DR8b Non-environmental drivers of change in the Mediterranean basin (PDF, 637 Kb)  
• DR9 Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards, and non-environmental drivers of change, mountainous regions over the next fifty years that might be relevant to migration (PDF, 498 Kb)  
• DR10 Cross-country regression of macro-patterns affecting migration, and how environmental change fits in (PDF, 759 Kb)  
• DR11 Demographic change and how future fertility, morbidity and mortality might be impacted by environmental change and affect migration (PDF, 1.3 Mb)  
• DR12 Drivers of internal UK migration and how these processes might be affected by environmental change (PDF, 340 Kb)  
• DR13 The international legal and political framework which affects migration, including the institutional architecture and capacity (PDF, 358 Kb)  
• DR14 Social drivers of migration, vulnerability and resilience (PDF, 465 Kb)  
• DR15 Low-carbon policy and its implications for migration (PDF, 1.2 Mb)  
• DR16 Quantifying change in ecosystem services and exposure to hazards, and non-environmental drivers of change, in low-lying islands and small island states over the next fifty years that might be relevant to migration (PDF, 1.5 Mb) 
• DR16 Appendix (XLSX, 43 Kb) 

State of science reviews

• SR1 How is the frequency, location and severity of extreme events likely to change up to 2060? (PDF, 181 Kb)  
• SR2 What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to the likelihood and potential impact on ecosystems services of singular climatic events? (PDF, 729 Kb)  
• SR3 What is the evidence for changing variability in climates from year to year? (PDF, 761 Kb)  
• SR4a What early warning systems are there for (environmental) shocks? (PDF, 439 Kb)  
• SR4b What early warning systems are there for (environmental) shocks, and what characterises operational, governmental and social responses to these warnings? (PDF, 3.6 Mb)  
• SR5 What mechanisms are there for reacting to environmental shocks? (PDF, 227 Kb)  
• SR6 What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (PDF, 1.1 Mb)  
• SR8 Likelihood of high levels of climate change by 2060 and implications for migration (PDF, 1.1 Mb)  
• SR10 Examine the global extent to which wildfires are a major element of environmental change and how this might change up to 2060. (PDF, 269 Kb)  
• SR11 Examine the global extent to which wildfires impact migration and are likely to do so up to 2060. (PDF, 170 Kb) 
• SR12 What kind of environmental changes have what kind of influences on what kinds of conflict (e.g. generalised; targeted; inter-state) or co-operation? (PDF, 237 Kb)  
• SR13 Are there examples of remittances being used to build local resilience to environmental change, especially through investment in soil and water conservation, or broader agriculture? (PDF, 497 Kb)  
• SR14 Microinsurance and climatic related disasters: challenges and options (PDF, 154 Kb)  
• SR15 Macro-economic management of extreme events (PDF, 265 Kb)  
• SR16 What methodology is available for tracking, recording and managing migration? (PDF, 207 Kb)  
• SR17 The economic growth impact of sea level rise – a review (PDF, 203 Kb)  
• SR18 Evolving economies – what returns does migration provide for destination countries? (PDF, 180 Kb)  
• SR19 What are the economic growth impacts of extreme events? (PDF, 215 Kb)  
• SR20 What would be the impact on the future global migration system – and specifically environmental migration – if the Colombo process succeeded in its aims (PDF, 197 Kb) 

Policy development reviews

• PD1 Improving urban living conditions in Kuyasa (Cape Town) through energy-efficieny retrofits: the impact on low-income communities (PDF, 907 Kb)  
• PD4 Mitigating conflict and violence in Africa's rapidly growing cities (PDF, 172 Kb)  
• PD6 Past UK experience of the arrival of populations displaced by extreme events (PDF, 215 Kb) 
• PD7 Migration and ageing populations (PDF, 291 Kb)  
• PD11 Conflict management in resource constrained African communities (PDF, 163 Kb)  
• PD12 How effective are migration policies and non-migration policies which affect migration? (PDF, 212 Kb)  
• PD13 International Migration in the Mashriq Countries: Past Trends, Future Potentials, and Determinants (PDF, 254 Kb)  
• PD15 Options available for low-lying islands (PDF, 190 Kb)  
• PD16 Global environmental governance and its relevance for new types of environmental migrants (PDF, 153 Kb)  
• PD17 Environmental Migration Governance: Debates and Action in the European Union (PDF, 201 Kb)  
• PD18 The European Union: coordinating environment and migration policies? (PDF, 187 Kb) 
• PD19 What threats might impact on the EUs future role in migration governance issues and the future of the EU itself by 2060? (PDF, 210 Kb)  
• PD21 Financial instruments for vulnerable locations:"What market-based or other solutions are available for vulnerable locations (such as coastal mega-cities, low-lying areas) to finance insurance or mitigation?" (PDF, 235 Kb)  
• PD23 Migration and displacement in the context of adaptation to climate change: developments in the UNFCCC climate negotiations and potential for future action (PDF, 719 Kb) 

Case studies

• CS1 New Orleans - examining multiple migration outcomes from the same event (PDF, 633 Kb)  
• CS2 Lessons learnt from the Indian Ocean Tsunami (PDF, 218 Kb)  
• CS4 Bangladesh - disaster preparedness; Comparable storms in a decade ago were causing more damage than now. (PDF, 842 Kb)  
• CS6 Zimbabwe – environmental change, conflict, migration and interest to UK (PDF, 899 Kb)  
• CS8 The EU Neighbourhood - The EU offloading future migration issues to the ‘European Neighbourhood’ (PDF, 195 Kb)  
• CS10 The impact of environmental change on labour migration from Nepal to the Gulf States (PDF, 159 Kb)  
• CS11 The potential and risks associated with development of new urban spaces in India in relation to climate risks/urbanisation (PDF, 256 Kb)  
• CS12 Water, Conflict and Migration in the Easter Mediterranean (PDF, 251 Kb) 

Case study reviews

• CR1: Review of cases of abandonment of settlements, including tipping points, and large scale population movements (PDF, 780 Kb)  CR2 The links between environmental change and migration: learning from case studies in Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ghana and Nepal (PDF, 180 Kb) 

Modelling reviews

• MR2 Agent-Based Model to estimate future environmental migration in Burkina Faso and the Sahel (PDF, 855 Kb)  
• MR3 Economic drivers of migration and climate change in LDCS (PDF, 357 Kb)  
• MR4 Estimates of historic net migration flows by ecosystem categories for the period 1970-2000, with extrapolation to 2010 (PDF, 4.9 Mb)  
• MR5 Review of data and predictions about attitudes to migration and the environment (PDF, 1.5 Mb)  
• MR7 Why the numbers don’t add up - a review of estimates and predictions of people (PDF, 288 Kb)  
• MR8 Model specification and results of Bayesian forecasts of total and environmental immigration to the United Kingdom, 2010–2060 (PDF, 957 Kb)  
• MR9 Analysis of Area and Population in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) (PDF, 3.4 Mb) 

Workshop reports

• WR1 Mountains workshop (PDF, 823 Kb)  
• WR2 Drylands workshop (PDF, 880 Kb)  
• WR3 Low lying coastal zones workshop (PDF, 500 Kb)  
• WR4 Mediterranean workshop (PDF, 524 Kb) 

Working papers

• WP1 What would be the long term impact on the global migration system – and specifically environmental migration – if, for whatever reason, people no longer wanted to gain entry to the US? (PDF, 141 Kb)  
• WP2 Lessons to learn from Curitiba (PDF, 139 Kb)  
• WP3 Climate Change adaptation and mitigation: implications for land acquisition and population relocation (PDF, 210 Kb)  
• WP4 Drivers of migration in household surveys (PDF, 212 Kb) 

• Print this page