Project structure
The Global Environmental Migration Project was split into three phases.
Phase 1: Understanding what future environmental migration will look like
To inform phase one, the project has commissioned a series of driver reviews. These reviews draw on the best available evidence to evaluate (qualitatively and quantitatively) how environmental factors could influence the patterns of migration globally, out to 2060.
This includes:
- Developing an in-depth understanding of how environmental factors will interact with other drivers of change to affect the migration system globally;
- Assessing future uncertainties in consequential migration flows;
- Identifying the most important challenges and opportunities that could face policy makers in countries and international organisations - and assessing the case for action and policy development now.
These reviews draw on existing evidence and also consider possible future uncertainties around environmental migration. This set of reviews combines cross disciplinary work with a futures perspective; they look at generally understood drivers of migration and consider how environmental change might play out. They represent a comprehensive review of the environment-migration nexus and span the full range of social sciences from economics to demography, and environmental change.
Phase 1 reviews were commissioned on a number of key topics considered as vital to an understanding of how environmental factors could influence patterns of migration globally, out to 2060.
These include, though not exclusively:
- Environmental and non-environmental drivers of migration
- Urbanisation
- Conflict and environmental change
- Quantifying changes to eco-systems and exposure to hazard
- Demographic change
Phase 1 includes reviews, modelling and future scenarios development.
Phase 2: Refining understanding and addressing the challenges and opportunities
Phase 2 of the Project identified what new science, interventions, innovations and policies would be appropriate to address the most important challenges and development opportunities identified in Phase 1.
To do this the Project has commissioned three sets of reviews:
Policy development reviews
These papers identify and evaluate current and future migration policies, with an emphasis on cutting-edge policies and interventions and potential developments likely to occur over the next 20 years.
State of science reviews
These papers review the current state of science or knowledge in key areas of importance for the future of the environmental change-migration system.
Case studies
To complement the evidence and analysis of phase 1 and 2 the project has commissioned a series of case-studies. These draw on examples and experiences of specific locations or environmental changes to inform the projects understanding of future global environmental migration, illustrate policies/interventions/practices that have worked in particular situations, and assess how applicable they may be elsewhere.
Phase 2 reviews identify and assess a range of science and technology interventions and broader policy options.
This includes, though not exclusively:
- Urban planning
- Adaptation planning
- Disaster response
- Conflict resolution and
- International governance of migration.
Foresight projects do not make recommendations about policy. They provide evidence and analysis to inform policy development in government and international policy-makers.
Evidence
Nearly all the evidence outlined above in phase 1 and phase 2 was peer reviewed inline with standard academic process. The only exceptions were the four workshop reports and four working papers, which took the form of think pieces. A substantial proportion of the evidence base will also be published in academic journals. Eleven of the driver reviews will be published with Global Environmental Change at the time of launch.
